Washington

What’s At Stake for Republicans on Super Tuesday

Republican voters in 13 states have the chance to weigh in on their party’s presidential nomination on Tuesday, the biggest single day of the entire primary contest. More than a quarter of the total number of delegates headed to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland will be allocated on Super Tuesday.

Here’s everything you need to know about the states, and the stakes, up for grabs on Tuesday night, arranged by the order in which polls close:

ALABAMA
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 50
Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

Alabama has a history of voting for the most conservative candidate in the race. It was one of eleven states former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) won in 2012, and one of eight states former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) won in 2008. It’s the least-educated state with a Super Tuesday contest; 56 percent of Republican primary voters in 2012 did not have a college degree.

It’s also the most religious: 75 percent of Republican voters in 2012 said they were white, evangelical born-again Christians. Thirty-six percent of Republican voters called themselves very conservative that year, while 30 percent called themselves somewhat conservative.

Twenty-one of the 50 delegates will be awarded based on results in the state’s seven congressional districts. If any candidate hits 50 percent in a district, they win all three delegates from that district. Candidates have to reach a 20 percent threshold to win any statewide or congressional district delegates.

GEORGIA
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 76
Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

Georgia voters picked favorite son Newt Gingrich in 2012, and Mike Huckabee in 2008. They’re heavily evangelical; 64 percent of voters in 2012 said they were white, born-again evangelicals. College graduates outnumbered non-graduates that year, 52 percent to 48 percent, while 39 percent of Republicans called themselves very conservative.

Georgia’s 31 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally, with a 20 percent threshold for inclusion. The 42 delegates allocated by the state’s 14 congressional districts go to the winner and second-place candidate in a 2-to-1 split, unless the winner takes a majority of the vote in a given district.

VERMONT
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 16
Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern.

Vermont is the most liberal state with delegates up for grabs on Tuesday. Fifty-three percent of the state’s Republican voters called themselves moderate or liberal in 2012, compared with just 19 percent who said they were very conservative. And only 27 percent are white, evangelical born-again Christians. John McCain and Mitt Romney won the state in 2008 and 2012.

The 13 non-RNC member delegates at stake are awarded on a proportional basis unless someone takes 50 percent of the vote. Three delegates will be split between the top two finishers on a 2-to-1 basis — because Vermont has only one congressional district — with the other ten divided based on the statewide result among any candidate who wins more than 20 percent.

VIRGINIA
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 49
Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

The Commonwealth went for McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012. Its voters are the most educated of any state up on Tuesday: 58 percent of Republicans who voted in 2012 had college degrees.

They’re still pretty conservative, though. Almost two-thirds, 32 percent, said they were very conservative, and 44 percent called themselves white born-again evangelicals. That’s the lowest rate of any Southern state up on Tuesday, but it’s higher than the non-Southern states.

The 13 at-large delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote result with no inclusion threshold. Each of the 11 congressional districts will award delegates on a 2-to-1 basis, with a 50 percent winner-take-all threshold.

ARKANSAS
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 40
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

Candidates must hit a 15 percent threshold to win a proportional share of Arkansas’s 25 at-large delegates, while the 12 district-level delegates will be awarded on a 2-to-1 basis. Arkansas voters didn’t get to weigh in on the 2012 Republican race until May 22, when Romney had already locked up the delegates necessary to win, which means no exit polls to parse.

MASSACHUSETTS
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 42
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

After Virginia, Massachusetts has the best-educated Republican voters; 56 percent have a college degree. They’re the least conservative; only 15 percent call themselves very conservative, and the same percentage describe themselves as white born-again evangelicals. Almost half, 49 percent, called themselves moderate or liberal.

Candidates only have to hit a 5 percent threshold to win a share of the 12 at-large delegates. And candidates can focus on vote-heavy areas: The 27 district delegates will also be awarded proportionally, based on statewide results.

MINNESOTA
Type of contest: Caucus
Republican delegates available: 38
Caucuses begin: 8 p.m. Eastern

Minnesota’s 38 delegates — 24 awarded by congressional district, 11 statewide and three RNC members — will be split between multiple candidates, unless someone hits an improbable 85 percent winner-take-all threshold. Any candidate scoring more than 10 percent of the vote gets a share of the at-large delegates.

Media organizations didn’t conduct entrance polls during Minnesota’s 2012 contest. But because it’s a caucus, expect results to roll in late.

OKLAHOMA
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 43
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Sooners are the most conservative electorate headed to the polls on Tuesday. Forty-seven percent called themselves very conservative in 2012, and just 25 percent called themselves moderate or liberal. Almost three-quarters, 72 percent, said they were white born-again evangelicals.

The 25 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates who reach a 15 percent inclusion threshold, unless someone hits the 50 percent winner-take-all threshold. The five congressional districts award delegates to any candidate — up to three — who top 15 percent, though one candidate can win all three if he tops 50 percent.

TENNESSEE
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 58
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Seventy-three percent of Volunteer voters are white evangelical born-agains, and 41 percent describe themselves as very conservative. Tennessee went for Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012.

The 28 at-large delegates will be awarded to any candidate who tops 20 percent; someone has to hit 66 percent to win all of those delegates. The 27 district delegates will be awarded on a two-to-one basis to the top two finishers over 20 percent.

TEXAS
Type of contest: Primary
Republican delegates available: 155
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Texas is a newcomer to Super Tuesday. In both 2012 and 2008, it voted late enough that Romney and McCain were already the presumptive Republican nominees. That means we don’t have exit polls to give us a hint at the contours of the electorate, but it’s a heavily conservative, heavily evangelical state — and also the first state in which a favorite son, Cruz, is on the ballot.

The 44 at-large delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate who hits the 20 percent inclusion threshold. The 108 district delegates awarded across 36 congressional districts are awarded proportionally too, but anyone who hits 50 percent in a given district gets all three delegates.

COLORADO
Type of contest: Caucus
Republican delegates available: 37
Caucuses begin: 9 p.m. Eastern

Another state without exit polls. But if past Republican primaries are any indication, the state can swing wildly, between establishment types like Sen. Cory Gardner (R) and former Gov. Bill Owens (R) and hard-core conservatives like 2010 Senate nominee Ken Buck, now a congressman. And don’t forget that 36 percent of statewide voters (not just Republicans) picked former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), who ran as a member of the Constitution Party, in the 2010 governor’s race.

Colorado won’t pick a Republican candidate, but they will elect 13 at-large delegates and 21 district-based delegates, all of whom are unpledged. Those delegates will commit themselves to a presidential candidate at conventions held later this spring.

WYOMING
Type of contest: Caucus
Republican delegates available: 26
Caucuses begin: Times vary, last caucus starts at 11 p.m. Eastern

No exit polls in Wyoming last cycle either. Wyoming Republicans picked Mitt Romney in both 2008 and 2012. And like Colorado, the 23 at-large delegates and three district delegates — Wyoming is also a one-district state — will declare themselves at conventions later on.

ALASKA
Type of contest: Caucus
Republican delegates available: 28
Caucuses begin: Midnight Eastern

Alaska caucus-goers will choose actual presidential candidates, and anyone who hits a 13 percent inclusion threshold will get a share of the 22 at-large and three district delegates. Because Alaska only has one district, those delegates are awarded based on statewide results.

Romney won the Alaska caucuses in both 2008 and 2012.

Morning Consult