Trump Leads Across All Polling Methodologies: Live Telephone, IVR and Online
WASHINGTON (December 18, 2015) — A new Morning Consult poll released today finds that Donald Trump’s lead among Republican primary voters remains strong following Tuesday’s GOP debate. The billionaire comes out on top at 36 percent, 24 percentage points ahead of Ben Carson at 12 percent, Ted Cruz at 11 percent, and Marco Rubio at nine percent.
The Morning Consult poll surveyed 1511 (1340 unweighted) registered Republican and Republican leaning voters from Dec. 12 to 15 and 921 (861 unweighted) registered Republican and Republican leaning voters following the GOP debate from Dec. 16 to 17 for a margin of error of +/- three percentage points. One-third of the poll was conducted through live telephone interviews, one-third by interactive voice response (IVR), and one-third online.
Pre-Debate (December 12 to 15): toplines and crosstabs
Post-Debate (December 15 to 17): toplines and crosstabs
| Candidate | Pre-Debate: December 12-15 | Post-Debate: December 16-17 |
| Donald Trump | 38% | 36% |
| Ben Carson | 14% | 12% |
| Ted Cruz | 12% | 11% |
| Marco Rubio | 8% | 9% |
| Jeb Bush | 7% | 7% |
| Carly Fiorina | 2% | 2% |
| Chris Christie | 2% | 2% |
| Rand Paul | 2% | 3% |
| Someone Else | 5% | 7% |
| Don’t Know | 10% | 11% |
The poll also found that Trump received support from 42 percent of men both before and after the debate, but his support among women declines slightly from 34 percent to 29 percent after the debate.
About one in six Republican respondents said they would support Hillary Clinton in the general election matchup between Trump and Clinton and 15 percent said they were undecided. The figure remained consistent before and after the debate.
And when it came to the nation’s issues, four in 10 said security issues are the top set of concerns on their mind when they are thinking about casting a vote. In the pre-debate poll, Republicans selected security issues over economic issues by a 45-22 margin. Following the debate, security issues trumped economic issues by a smaller 38-29 margin.
To access the latest polls from Morning Consult and other leading media and polling organizations, visit Morning Consult Intelligence at morningconsultintelligence.com.
For any questions on methodology or the poll, please reach out to Jeff Cartwright at jeff@morningconsult.com or 763-234-7431.
