February 3, 2016 at 10:36 am ET
As 2016 Field Narrows, Here’s Where Supporters Will Go Next
Rubio speaks as, from left, Bush, Trump and Carson listen at the GOP presidential debate on CNBC. (REUTERS/Rick Wilking)
As candidates drop out of the 2016 presidential field, Morning Consult polling analysis can help reveal who voters will support next.
Rubio Could Benefit From Fiorina’s Exit
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has dropped out of the presidential race, further winnowing the GOP field. According to Morning Consult polling, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio stands to gain the most from her exit.
Twenty-three percent of Fiorina’s supporters pegged Rubio as their second choice for the nomination, and 18 percent said retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was their second choice. Fourteen percent said Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would garner their vote if she dropped out, and nine percent selected either former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is no longer in the race, or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only five percent said real estate developer Donald Trump was their second choice.
| Demographic | 5/6/20 | 5/7/20 | 5/8/20 | 5/9/20 | 5/10/20 | 5/11/20 | 5/12/20 | 5/13/20 | 5/14/20 | 5/15/20 | 5/16/20 | 5/17/20 | 5/18/20 | 5/19/20 | 5/20/20 | 5/21/20 | 5/22/20 | 5/23/20 | 5/24/20 | 5/25/20 | 5/26/20 | 5/27/20 | 5/28/20 | 5/29/20 | 5/30/20 | 5/31/20 | 6/1/20 | 6/2/20 | 6/3/20 | 6/4/20 | 6/5/20 | 6/6/20 | 6/7/20 | 6/8/20 | 6/9/20 | 6/10/20 | 6/11/20 | 6/12/20 | 6/13/20 | 6/14/20 | 6/15/20 | 6/16/20 | 6/17/20 | 6/18/20 | 6/19/20 | 6/20/20 | 6/21/20 | 6/22/20 | 6/23/20 | 6/24/20 | 6/25/20 | 6/26/20 | 6/27/20 | 6/28/20 | 6/29/20 | 6/30/20 | 7/1/20 | 7/2/20 | 7/3/20 | 7/4/20 | 7/5/20 | 7/6/20 | 7/7/20 | 7/8/20 | 7/9/20 | 7/10/20 | 7/11/20 | 7/12/20 | 7/13/20 | 7/14/20 | 7/15/20 | 7/16/20 | 7/17/20 | 7/18/20 | 7/19/20 | 7/20/20 | 7/21/20 | 7/22/20 | 7/23/20 | 7/24/20 | 7/25/20 | 7/26/20 | 7/27/20 | 7/28/20 | 7/29/20 | 7/30/20 | 7/31/20 | 8/1/20 | 8/2/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Likely Voters | 49 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 42 | 2 | 4 |
| Democrats | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 92 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Independents | 43 | 39 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 9 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 39 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 40 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 39 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 40 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 40 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 40 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 44 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 44 | 39 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 40 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 40 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 39 | 7 | 10 | 43 | 38 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 37 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 12 | 44 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 45 | 38 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 38 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 37 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 37 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 36 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 35 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 36 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 35 | 6 | 10 | 48 | 35 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 34 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 10 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 35 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 35 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 37 | 6 | 12 | 44 | 36 | 7 | 13 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 46 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 36 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 46 | 36 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 36 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 36 | 8 | 10 | 46 | 35 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 36 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 34 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 35 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 36 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 36 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 36 | 7 | 11 | 47 | 36 | 6 | 10 | 48 | 35 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 36 | 7 | 10 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 10 |
| Republicans | 7 | 89 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 91 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 91 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 91 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 89 | 1 | 3 |
| Gen Zers | 55 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 52 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 52 | 30 | 8 | 9 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 8 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 58 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 56 | 30 | 7 | 8 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 23 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 9 | 57 | 27 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 7 | 8 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 57 | 27 | 7 | 9 | 58 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 61 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 61 | 27 | 6 | 7 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 26 | 7 | 8 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 63 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 8 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 62 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 64 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 62 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 65 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 68 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 69 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 66 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 59 | 24 | 10 | 7 | 60 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 61 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 65 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 62 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 63 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 62 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 66 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 67 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 67 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 67 | 22 | 6 | 5 |
| Millennials | 52 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 54 | 36 | 5 | 4 | 53 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 52 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 40 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 40 | 5 | 4 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 50 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 50 | 39 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 39 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 38 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 36 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 35 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 37 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 53 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 56 | 37 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 54 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 54 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 38 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 39 | 3 | 4 |
| Gen Xers | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 46 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 43 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 46 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 47 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 46 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 43 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 41 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 41 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 46 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 5 |
| Baby Boomers | 48 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 44 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 50 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 4 |
Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 84 Carly Fiorina supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January.
Christie Supporters Could Flock to Rubio
After a disappointing finish in the New Hampshire primary, Chris Christie is expected to drop out of the race, according to CNN. Morning Consult polling shows Christie’s backers could head to the candidate the New Jersey Republican took down in Saturday’s debate: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
In four separate national polls conducted in January, Rubio was the top second-choice pick among Christie supporters with 17 percent. Donald Trump was a close second, getting 15 percent of Christie supporters, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 14 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 13 percent.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who took second place for the GOP in New Hampshire Tuesday night, would get the smallest slice of Christie supporters among all other candidates, picking up just 7 percent.
Table 1: Correlation between number of new cases per capita and daily consumer confidence
| Jan. 30-July 27, 2020 | |||
| US | -0.7 | ||
| Germany | -0.55 | ||
| United Kingdom | -0.69 | ||
| France | -0.57 | ||
| Italy | -0.92 | ||
| Spain | -0.54 |
Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 164 Chris Christie supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.
Rand Paul’s Supporters May Split Between Cruz and Trump
Ted Cruz and Donald Trump could be the biggest benefactors from Rand Paul’s exit from the GOP nominee race Wednesday, according to Morning Consult polling analysis.
Eighteen percent of Paul’s former supporters said Cruz was their second choice pick in January, and 17 percent picked Trump. Thirteen percent said Ben Carson was their second choice, while Sen. Marco Rubio got 11 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush got ten percent.
| Demographic | 5/6/20 | 5/7/20 | 5/8/20 | 5/9/20 | 5/10/20 | 5/11/20 | 5/12/20 | 5/13/20 | 5/14/20 | 5/15/20 | 5/16/20 | 5/17/20 | 5/18/20 | 5/19/20 | 5/20/20 | 5/21/20 | 5/22/20 | 5/23/20 | 5/24/20 | 5/25/20 | 5/26/20 | 5/27/20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | 47 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 43 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 43 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 43 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 44 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 42 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 48 | 44 | 3 | 5 |
| Battleground Likely Voters | 46 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 |
| Party ID: Democrats | 88 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 87 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 87 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 88 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 89 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Party ID: Independents | 42 | 36 | 9 | 13 | 41 | 37 | 9 | 13 | 41 | 37 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 38 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 39 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 37 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 36 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 37 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 37 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 38 | 8 | 14 | 42 | 37 | 7 | 14 | 42 | 37 | 7 | 14 | 43 | 37 | 7 | 13 | 41 | 38 | 7 | 13 | 41 | 38 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 38 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 37 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 37 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 37 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 37 | 8 | 13 |
| Party ID: Republicans | 8 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 3 |
| Generation Baby Boomers: 1946-1964 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 |
| Generation GenXers: 1965-1980 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 46 | 3 | 6 | 45 | 46 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 47 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 46 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 43 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 44 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 44 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 45 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 46 | 3 | 6 |
| Generation GenZers: 1997-2012 | 54 | 27 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 29 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 33 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 8 | 10 | 53 | 31 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 9 | 54 | 30 | 9 | 8 | 51 | 32 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 32 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 29 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 28 | 7 | 9 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 28 | 9 | 12 | 50 | 29 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 30 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 54 | 28 | 9 | 9 | 56 | 28 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 31 | 8 | 8 |
| Generation Millennials: 1981-1996 | 49 | 40 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 37 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 36 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 38 | 7 | 6 | 50 | 38 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 38 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 40 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 40 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 37 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 39 | 5 | 6 | 49 | 39 | 5 | 6 | 47 | 42 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 41 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 41 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 39 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 39 | 4 | 6 |
Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 181 Rand Paul supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.
Mike Huckabee’s Supporters Will Go to Ben Carson and Donald Trump
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson is likely to receive the biggest bump from former supporters of Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor dropped out of the 2016 presidential race after receiving less than two percent of the vote in Iowa. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008.
Overall, 24 percent of his former supporters say Carson is their second choice and 18 percent say Donald Trump is their second choice. Nine percent select Jeb Bush as their second choice and six percent say Marco Rubio is their second pick.
Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 143 Mike Huckabee supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.
O’Malley Supporters Split Between Clinton and Sanders
The few supporters who backed former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (who suspended his campaign Monday night) will split almost evenly between Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to an analysis of Morning Consult polling.
Forty-four percent of O’Malley’s former supporters say Hillary Clinton is their second choice and 40 percent say Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is their second choice. Twelve percent say someone else is their second choice and five percent have no opinion either way.
| 1/1/20 | 2/1/20 | 3/1/20 | 4/1/20 | 5/1/20 | 6/1/20 | 7/1/20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 125.5 | 125.1 | 128.1 | 110.8 | 97.4 | 98.8 | 99.7 |
| Alaska | 117.4 | 119.2 | 112.8 | 106.3 | 78.2 | 80.1 | 80.6 |
| Arizona | 116.5 | 118.2 | 118.5 | 98.7 | 87.5 | 89.1 | 92.1 |
| Arkansas | 118.6 | 116.9 | 117.8 | 100.1 | 90.1 | 92.8 | 93.9 |
| California | 111.1 | 110.8 | 111.5 | 92.7 | 80.4 | 82.3 | 86 |
| Colorado | 108.8 | 110.6 | 112.8 | 92.4 | 78.1 | 82.7 | 82 |
| Connecticut | 107.7 | 107.4 | 109.6 | 90.7 | 75.1 | 78.6 | 86.7 |
| Delaware | 115.5 | 115.1 | 115.5 | 96.7 | 82.1 | 87.7 | 89.4 |
| Florida | 119.1 | 119.5 | 118.6 | 100 | 86.9 | 91.2 | 92.9 |
| Georgia | 123.6 | 124.4 | 126 | 108.4 | 94.7 | 95.8 | 97.6 |
| Hawaii | 104.5 | 105.5 | 106.1 | 84 | 72.5 | 76.8 | 74 |
| Idaho | 119.5 | 118.7 | 124.3 | 105.1 | 88.2 | 94.5 | 99 |
| Illinois | 111.8 | 111.1 | 112 | 92.8 | 79.8 | 82.8 | 84.6 |
| Indiana | 117.9 | 119.6 | 119.9 | 101.1 | 85.3 | 89.5 | 93.3 |
| Iowa | 108.1 | 109.7 | 110.6 | 90.2 | 80.4 | 82.2 | 86.1 |
| Kansas | 116.3 | 115.6 | 112.6 | 92.5 | 82 | 82.4 | 87.7 |
| Kentucky | 115 | 114.8 | 116.4 | 100.9 | 84.8 | 88.8 | 89.8 |
| Louisiana | 119.3 | 121.6 | 125.4 | 110.2 | 93.3 | 97.4 | 99.4 |
| Maine | 107.6 | 109.5 | 111.3 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 77.2 | 80.1 |
| Maryland | 113 | 112.3 | 113.9 | 93.7 | 79.5 | 83.7 | 88.1 |
| Massachusetts | 108.4 | 107.7 | 107.7 | 89.9 | 75.7 | 77.1 | 83.9 |
| Michigan | 111.8 | 113.1 | 114.5 | 94.6 | 80.1 | 81.3 | 88 |
| Minnesota | 115 | 115 | 116 | 93 | 79.5 | 78.7 | 90.1 |
| Mississippi | 122.1 | 122.4 | 123.3 | 106.3 | 94.2 | 93.5 | 97.5 |
| Missouri | 119 | 119.4 | 120.7 | 101.4 | 88 | 90.4 | 91.4 |
| Montana | 119.3 | 116.3 | 115.1 | 100.2 | 85.7 | 91.7 | 96 |
| Nebraska | 117.9 | 117 | 119.3 | 93.5 | 83.5 | 88.2 | 87.8 |
| Nevada | 121.8 | 120.4 | 121.8 | 95.8 | 85.9 | 86.1 | 86.6 |
| New Hampshire | 109.3 | 110.6 | 109.5 | 91 | 77.4 | 76.2 | 83.4 |
| New Jersey | 111.7 | 111.6 | 111.8 | 91.7 | 79.6 | 80.9 | 86.7 |
| New Mexico | 114.4 | 111.5 | 115 | 100.1 | 87.1 | 87 | 92.3 |
| New York | 112.2 | 112.2 | 112.4 | 94.5 | 81.5 | 82.5 | 88.4 |
| North Carolina | 118.8 | 119.7 | 121.3 | 99.4 | 88.7 | 91.4 | 92.9 |
| North Dakota | 120.1 | 115.6 | 116.9 | 100.6 | 79.7 | 85.4 | 86.9 |
| Ohio | 114.9 | 114.9 | 116.6 | 96.8 | 82.5 | 85.7 | 89.3 |
| Oklahoma | 115.9 | 117.6 | 118.9 | 103.3 | 90.6 | 90.5 | 90 |
| Oregon | 106.5 | 109.3 | 107.3 | 88.6 | 77.3 | 76.5 | 78.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 112.8 | 114.1 | 114.8 | 95.3 | 80.3 | 83.4 | 88.7 |
| Rhode Island | 109.5 | 110.7 | 111 | 87 | 79.3 | 81.9 | 84.3 |
| South Carolina | 121 | 121.3 | 124.1 | 105 | 90.9 | 93.1 | 93.3 |
| South Dakota | 108.5 | 111.5 | 115 | 98.4 | 80.5 | 88.1 | 88.3 |
| Tennessee | 121.5 | 122 | 123.2 | 103.1 | 92.6 | 93 | 95.3 |
| Texas | 120 | 120.8 | 120.6 | 103 | 87.8 | 91 | 92.9 |
| Utah | 123.6 | 122 | 123.2 | 102.3 | 88.5 | 94.4 | 94 |
| Vermont | 99.4 | 99.6 | 95.1 | 83.3 | 70 | 75 | 76.6 |
| Virginia | 117.7 | 118.5 | 118.8 | 102.5 | 86.5 | 89.6 | 91.4 |
| Washington | 110.2 | 109.9 | 107.4 | 89.3 | 80.8 | 83.1 | 83.9 |
| West Virginia | 109.1 | 108.6 | 111.6 | 99.4 | 85.4 | 87.1 | 88.6 |
| Wisconsin | 110.5 | 111.3 | 112.3 | 88.3 | 78.9 | 80.7 | 85.6 |
| Wyoming | 122.7 | 116.3 | 124.2 | 103.3 | 90.6 | 89.4 | 87.8 |
Morning Consult asked 6,389 registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents voters, including 151 Martin O’Malley supporters, for their first and second choice in the Democratic presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.
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