As 2016 Field Narrows, Here’s Where Supporters Will Go Next

Rubio speaks as, from left, Bush, Trump and Carson listen at the GOP presidential debate on CNBC. (REUTERS/Rick Wilking)

As candidates drop out of the 2016 presidential field, Morning Consult polling analysis can help reveal who voters will support next.

Rubio Could Benefit From Fiorina’s Exit

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has dropped out of the presidential race, further winnowing the GOP field. According to Morning Consult polling, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio stands to gain the most from her exit.

Twenty-three percent of Fiorina’s supporters pegged Rubio as their second choice for the nomination, and 18 percent said retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was their second choice. Fourteen percent said Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would garner their vote if she dropped out, and nine percent selected either former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is no longer in the race, or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only five percent said real estate developer Donald Trump was their second choice.

Demographic5/6/20   5/7/20   5/8/20   5/9/20   5/10/20   5/11/20   5/12/20   5/13/20   5/14/20   5/15/20   5/16/20   5/17/20   5/18/20   5/19/20   5/20/20   5/21/20   5/22/20   5/23/20   5/24/20   5/25/20   5/26/20   5/27/20   5/28/20   5/29/20   5/30/20   5/31/20   6/1/20   6/2/20   6/3/20   6/4/20   6/5/20   6/6/20   6/7/20   6/8/20   6/9/20   6/10/20   6/11/20   6/12/20   6/13/20   6/14/20   6/15/20   6/16/20   6/17/20   6/18/20   6/19/20   6/20/20   6/21/20   6/22/20   6/23/20   6/24/20   6/25/20   6/26/20   6/27/20   6/28/20   6/29/20   6/30/20   7/1/20   7/2/20   7/3/20   7/4/20   7/5/20   7/6/20   7/7/20   7/8/20   7/9/20   7/10/20   7/11/20   7/12/20   7/13/20   7/14/20   7/15/20   7/16/20   7/17/20   7/18/20   7/19/20   7/20/20   7/21/20   7/22/20   7/23/20   7/24/20   7/25/20   7/26/20   7/27/20   7/28/20   7/29/20   7/30/20   7/31/20   8/1/20   8/2/20   
Likely Voters494434494434494434484434484535484535484535484435494435494335494435494435494435484435484435494435494335484435484435484534494434484435484435494435494435494435484435494335494335494335494335504235504334514234514234504235504235504235504235504235514235514235514234504234504235504235504235504235504235504235504225504225504324514234504334514234514234514234504235504334504235514234504234514234504235504235504235514235504234504235504235504235504235504235514235504235504235514235514235514235504235514325514235514235504334504324504324504324514224
Democrats9052390522906229052290622905229062291522905239152390522905228952389523905239152391423905239052390622906229062290523905239052390522915229152291522916229062291523915229142291422914229152291522924239242292422925229152292522915239152290523905229052391513924139241392422924229242292512925129252292522925129251292412915229252292522925129251292512915129251291513925129151291513915139151291512925129241292412915139251292512925129251291512916129251292512
Independents43398104240894339994240894339811433971144387114438711443871142406124339612434061144396114240612424061142407114338810443881044397114340611443871143387114338711424071143397104338712433671343367134337813443771244386124538611463861046376104737610473661148356114736611483561048357114934710463671145377104537710463581145358124536811443771245376124436713453671146367114637611463661145377114537711453771145367114536711463681147347114735810473671046368104635811453691145369104636810473581047348114734812463471246347124635811473471247347124734712463681145368114537711453771145376114636712453671246367114736610483561047367104538710
Republicans7891278913789136891369013690136911369012790127891369013690136901369112691126901369013690136901369013790137901379013690137901369013690137901378913888147881478813789137891388813789137891378814788137891378913888138881378913888138881378813788137891378913690137901378913789137891288813888138881378913789137891378913788137891378813788147891378913789137881388813888138881378913789137891368913789137891378913789137891388813889138881378913789137891388913
Gen Zers552810753319751331075231108523089572878582778622486592777582868563078592688602677602389552791054288105330895727795925886226665928765629785627895627895727795826696124696324586127675927775927776026785927776026766125866223786123886123886322876323776422776025776323866025875925885825796024896025875926785927786025696225576523666522766422866224776522676820666920666623656423666323875924107602497612497652087622396642386612586632386612586622486612577602587612488602488622378622477652276652276662275672265642376622378612388642278662176672166672265
Millennials523945533944543654533854523955513945504145504145514144534034533945533934523945514135524035504054514044514054523945524044523944504055503955503956523855523855513956523856523855543745533845543835553744563644553644563645553645543646523945533845553645563545553645533745523746523756533755523855523845523946533835543835563734563644543834553744543944553844523944523845543745553744563644563644553644533845533845533845543745533845533845523945533845543844533845533845543745533845513955514045514045533845523945533845514045514145514234534034543934
Gen Xers464734464734454735454735454645464635484435484336484436474436464635474535454636454735454835474634484534474635464635474635474625484425494425504324494525484525464625454726454736454636474526494326524125524025524125484435484534474535494434484435484535484435464635464725454824484535494435504235504226494335494434494334494435484435484525484435484435484435474535464635454636474525484435494435484435464535494435494435494335484435474535464725464725484525494325484525474625474525484425484426484525474525494425494425504335494425494524494424504325
Baby Boomers484714494524494624484624474824464824474824464824474724474724484614474714484625474724484624484614494524474724474724464824474724474824474824474824474824474724474724494524494425494425484525484625474724474724484724484624484614484615494514494624494524494524504424514424524324514424494524484625484525494425504414494514484614494524494524494524494524494624494514494524504424504424494524494524494624504415494515494514494624504524504425504325504325504424504424494424504424504424504424514424504424504514504524504514504514504514494514484614484624

Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 84 Carly Fiorina supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January.

Christie Supporters Could Flock to Rubio

After a disappointing finish in the New Hampshire primary, Chris Christie is expected to drop out of the race, according to CNN. Morning Consult polling shows Christie’s backers could head to the candidate the New Jersey Republican took down in Saturday’s debate: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

In four separate national polls conducted in January, Rubio was the top second-choice pick among Christie supporters with 17 percent. Donald Trump was a close second, getting 15 percent of Christie supporters, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 14 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 13 percent.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who took second place for the GOP in New Hampshire Tuesday night, would get the smallest slice of Christie supporters among all other candidates, picking up just 7 percent.

Table 1: Correlation between number of new cases per capita and daily consumer confidence

Jan. 30-July 27, 2020
US-0.7
Germany-0.55
United Kingdom-0.69
France-0.57
Italy-0.92
Spain-0.54
NOTE: Italy and Spain run from May 5-July 27, 2020

Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 164 Chris Christie supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.

Rand Paul’s Supporters May Split Between Cruz and Trump

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump could be the biggest benefactors from Rand Paul’s exit from the GOP nominee race Wednesday, according to Morning Consult polling analysis.

Eighteen percent of Paul’s former supporters said Cruz was their second choice pick in January, and 17 percent picked Trump. Thirteen percent said Ben Carson was their second choice, while Sen. Marco Rubio got 11 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush got ten percent.

Demographic5/6/20   5/7/20   5/8/20   5/9/20   5/10/20   5/11/20   5/12/20   5/13/20   5/14/20   5/15/20   5/16/20   5/17/20   5/18/20   5/19/20   5/20/20   5/21/20   5/22/20   5/23/20   5/24/20   5/25/20   5/26/20   5/27/20   
Likely Voters474446464446474346464445464445464446474446474346474346464446474346484336484336474336464436464446474346484245484246484346484335484435
Battleground Likely Voters464724464734474634464734464734464734464734464734464734474724474724474724474724474725464725464725474724474725474725474724474724474724
Party ID: Democrats88633886338863388643876438863388633896338953388633896238963389633886348763488534895339052389523895238962389623
Party ID: Independents423691341379134137912403810124039101141389124237813423681440378144037914403881442377144237714433771341387134138813403881342379124236912423781342378134237813
Party ID: Republicans88813788137881478814689147891468913789137891378913689136901369013690137901369013789136891378913690136901378913
Generation Baby Boomers: 1946-1964474724464725484525474624464734454824454825464725454825464725464725474625474725464725454825474625484525494425484525474625474724474724
Generation GenXers: 1965-1980444736434836454636454645444745444646454536464437464347444448444448454537464436444736444736444835464535474535474535454735464536464636
Generation GenZers: 1997-201254271010522910948331094636108463510948348105331895231895430985132895231895132710542981056287954268125128912502991251309105328810542899562879533188
Generation Millennials: 1981-1996494047493967503766503676493876503866503867493957494057484056513946523756513956493956474247484157484166503965503965513956513946503946

Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 181 Rand Paul supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.

Mike Huckabee’s Supporters Will Go to Ben Carson and Donald Trump

Neurosurgeon Ben Carson is likely to receive the biggest bump from former supporters of Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor dropped out of the 2016 presidential race after receiving less than two percent of the vote in Iowa. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008.

Overall, 24 percent of his former supporters say Carson is their second choice and 18 percent say Donald Trump is their second choice. Nine percent select Jeb Bush as their second choice and six percent say Marco Rubio is their second pick.

     

Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 143 Mike Huckabee supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.

O’Malley Supporters Split Between Clinton and Sanders

The few supporters who backed former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (who suspended his campaign Monday night) will split almost evenly between Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to an analysis of Morning Consult polling.

Forty-four percent of O’Malley’s former supporters say Hillary Clinton is their second choice and 40 percent say Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is their second choice. Twelve percent say someone else is their second choice and five percent have no opinion either way.

 1/1/202/1/203/1/204/1/205/1/206/1/207/1/20
Alabama125.5125.1128.1110.897.498.899.7
Alaska117.4119.2112.8106.378.280.180.6
Arizona116.5118.2118.598.787.589.192.1
Arkansas118.6116.9117.8100.190.192.893.9
California111.1110.8111.592.780.482.386
Colorado108.8110.6112.892.478.182.782
Connecticut107.7107.4109.690.775.178.686.7
Delaware115.5115.1115.596.782.187.789.4
Florida119.1119.5118.610086.991.292.9
Georgia123.6124.4126108.494.795.897.6
Hawaii104.5105.5106.18472.576.874
Idaho119.5118.7124.3105.188.294.599
Illinois111.8111.111292.879.882.884.6
Indiana117.9119.6119.9101.185.389.593.3
Iowa108.1109.7110.690.280.482.286.1
Kansas116.3115.6112.692.58282.487.7
Kentucky115114.8116.4100.984.888.889.8
Louisiana119.3121.6125.4110.293.397.499.4
Maine107.6109.5111.387.174.977.280.1
Maryland113112.3113.993.779.583.788.1
Massachusetts108.4107.7107.789.975.777.183.9
Michigan111.8113.1114.594.680.181.388
Minnesota1151151169379.578.790.1
Mississippi122.1122.4123.3106.394.293.597.5
Missouri119119.4120.7101.48890.491.4
Montana119.3116.3115.1100.285.791.796
Nebraska117.9117119.393.583.588.287.8
Nevada121.8120.4121.895.885.986.186.6
New Hampshire109.3110.6109.59177.476.283.4
New Jersey111.7111.6111.891.779.680.986.7
New Mexico114.4111.5115100.187.18792.3
New York112.2112.2112.494.581.582.588.4
North Carolina118.8119.7121.399.488.791.492.9
North Dakota120.1115.6116.9100.679.785.486.9
Ohio114.9114.9116.696.882.585.789.3
Oklahoma115.9117.6118.9103.390.690.590
Oregon106.5109.3107.388.677.376.578.7
Pennsylvania112.8114.1114.895.380.383.488.7
Rhode Island109.5110.71118779.381.984.3
South Carolina121121.3124.110590.993.193.3
South Dakota108.5111.511598.480.588.188.3
Tennessee121.5122123.2103.192.69395.3
Texas120120.8120.610387.89192.9
Utah123.6122123.2102.388.594.494
Vermont99.499.695.183.3707576.6
Virginia117.7118.5118.8102.586.589.691.4
Washington110.2109.9107.489.380.883.183.9
West Virginia109.1108.6111.699.485.487.188.6
Wisconsin110.5111.3112.388.378.980.785.6
Wyoming122.7116.3124.2103.390.689.487.8

Morning Consult asked 6,389 registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents voters, including 151 Martin O’Malley supporters, for their first and second choice in the Democratic presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.

Morning Consult