Rand Paul’s Supporters May Split Between Cruz and Trump

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)

By Morning Consult Staff

February 3, 2016 at 10:00 am ET

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump could be the biggest benefactors from Rand Paul’s exit from the GOP nominee race Wednesday, according to Morning Consult polling analysis.

Eighteen percent of Paul’s former supporters said Cruz was their second choice pick in January, and 17 percent picked Trump. Thirteen percent said Ben Carson was their second choice, while Sen. Marco Rubio got 11 percent of the second choice slots. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush got ten percent.

Demographic	5/6/20				5/7/20				5/8/20				5/9/20				5/10/20				5/11/20				5/12/20				5/13/20				5/14/20				5/15/20				5/16/20				5/17/20				5/18/20				5/19/20				5/20/20				5/21/20				5/22/20				5/23/20				5/24/20				5/25/20				5/26/20				5/27/20
Likely Voters	47	44	4	6	46	44	4	6	47	43	4	6	46	44	4	5	46	44	4	5	46	44	4	6	47	44	4	6	47	43	4	6	47	43	4	6	46	44	4	6	47	43	4	6	48	43	3	6	48	43	3	6	47	43	3	6	46	44	3	6	46	44	4	6	47	43	4	6	48	42	4	5	48	42	4	6	48	43	4	6	48	43	3	5	48	44	3	5
Battleground Likely Voters	46	47	2	4	46	47	3	4	47	46	3	4	46	47	3	4	46	47	3	4	46	47	3	4	46	47	3	4	46	47	3	4	46	47	3	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	5	46	47	2	5	46	47	2	5	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	5	47	47	2	5	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4
Party ID: Democrats	88	6	3	3	88	6	3	3	88	6	3	3	88	6	4	3	87	6	4	3	88	6	3	3	88	6	3	3	89	6	3	3	89	5	3	3	88	6	3	3	89	6	2	3	89	6	3	3	89	6	3	3	88	6	3	4	87	6	3	4	88	5	3	4	89	5	3	3	90	5	2	3	89	5	2	3	89	5	2	3	89	6	2	3	89	6	2	3
Party ID: Independents	42	36	9	13	41	37	9	13	41	37	9	12	40	38	10	12	40	39	10	11	41	38	9	12	42	37	8	13	42	36	8	14	40	37	8	14	40	37	9	14	40	38	8	14	42	37	7	14	42	37	7	14	43	37	7	13	41	38	7	13	41	38	8	13	40	38	8	13	42	37	9	12	42	36	9	12	42	37	8	13	42	37	8	13	42	37	8	13
Party ID: Republicans	8	88	1	3	7	88	1	3	7	88	1	4	7	88	1	4	6	89	1	4	7	89	1	4	6	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	6	89	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	89	1	3	6	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	89	1	3
Generation Baby Boomers: 1946-1964	47	47	2	4	46	47	2	5	48	45	2	5	47	46	2	4	46	47	3	4	45	48	2	4	45	48	2	5	46	47	2	5	45	48	2	5	46	47	2	5	46	47	2	5	47	46	2	5	47	47	2	5	46	47	2	5	45	48	2	5	47	46	2	5	48	45	2	5	49	44	2	5	48	45	2	5	47	46	2	5	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4
Generation GenXers: 1965-1980	44	47	3	6	43	48	3	6	45	46	3	6	45	46	4	5	44	47	4	5	44	46	4	6	45	45	3	6	46	44	3	7	46	43	4	7	44	44	4	8	44	44	4	8	45	45	3	7	46	44	3	6	44	47	3	6	44	47	3	6	44	48	3	5	46	45	3	5	47	45	3	5	47	45	3	5	45	47	3	5	46	45	3	6	46	46	3	6
Generation GenZers: 1997-2012	54	27	10	10	52	29	10	9	48	33	10	9	46	36	10	8	46	35	10	9	48	34	8	10	53	31	8	9	52	31	8	9	54	30	9	8	51	32	8	9	52	31	8	9	51	32	7	10	54	29	8	10	56	28	7	9	54	26	8	12	51	28	9	12	50	29	9	12	51	30	9	10	53	28	8	10	54	28	9	9	56	28	7	9	53	31	8	8
Generation Millennials: 1981-1996	49	40	4	7	49	39	6	7	50	37	6	6	50	36	7	6	49	38	7	6	50	38	6	6	50	38	6	7	49	39	5	7	49	40	5	7	48	40	5	6	51	39	4	6	52	37	5	6	51	39	5	6	49	39	5	6	47	42	4	7	48	41	5	7	48	41	6	6	50	39	6	5	50	39	6	5	51	39	5	6	51	39	4	6	50	39	4	6

Morning Consult asked 5,456 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, including 181 Rand Paul supporters, for their first and second choice in the Republican presidential primary across four separate national polls conducted in January 2016.

Morning Consult Staff

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Rand Paul’s Supporters May Split Between Cruz and Trump

Rand Paul’s Supporters May Split Between Cruz and Trump

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