February 12, 2016 at 5:30 am ET
After runaway victories in New Hampshire, Donald Trump and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders both got their highest levels of national party support ever seen in Morning Consult polling.
Sanders’ sizable New Hampshire victory earned him 39 percent of Democratic voters in our national poll conducted immediately after the primary. That put Sanders seven percentage points behind Hillary Clinton, the closest gap between the two potential Democratic nominees in Morning Consult polling. Clinton lost four percentage points after the New Hampshire primary, moving from 50 percent to 46 percent. This is not the first time Clinton has fallen below 50 percent in Morning Consult’s national polls. Clinton dropped to 44 percent at the end of September, when speculation about Vice President Joe Biden joining the race reached a fever pitch.
DEM:
| 1/1/20 | 7/1/20 | 8/1/20 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 125.5 | 99.7 | 98.7 |
| Alaska | 117.4 | 80.6 | 84 |
| Arizona | 116.5 | 92.1 | 87 |
| Arkansas | 118.6 | 93.9 | 90.7 |
| California | 111.1 | 86 | 83.5 |
| Colorado | 108.8 | 82 | 83.7 |
| Connecticut | 107.7 | 86.7 | 84.7 |
| Delaware | 115.5 | 89.4 | 87.3 |
| Florida | 119.1 | 92.9 | 89.2 |
| Georgia | 123.6 | 97.6 | 95.7 |
| Hawaii | 104.5 | 74 | 73 |
| Idaho | 119.5 | 99 | 95 |
| Illinois | 111.8 | 84.6 | 85.8 |
| Indiana | 117.9 | 93.3 | 88.6 |
| Iowa | 108.1 | 86.1 | 84 |
| Kansas | 116.3 | 87.7 | 86.4 |
| Kentucky | 115 | 89.8 | 88.7 |
| Louisiana | 119.3 | 99.4 | 93.3 |
| Maine | 107.6 | 80.1 | 80 |
| Maryland | 113 | 88.1 | 85 |
| Massachusetts | 108.4 | 83.9 | 83.2 |
| Michigan | 111.8 | 88 | 85.2 |
| Minnesota | 115 | 90.1 | 87.6 |
| Mississippi | 122.1 | 97.5 | 92.2 |
| Missouri | 119 | 91.4 | 88.9 |
| Montana | 119.3 | 96 | 87 |
| Nebraska | 117.9 | 87.8 | 85 |
| Nevada | 121.8 | 86.6 | 86.7 |
| New Hampshire | 109.3 | 83.4 | 81.2 |
| New Jersey | 111.7 | 86.7 | 85.2 |
| New Mexico | 114.4 | 92.3 | 83.5 |
| New York | 112.2 | 88.4 | 88.9 |
| North Carolina | 118.8 | 92.9 | 91.4 |
| North Dakota | 120.1 | 86.9 | 88.3 |
| Ohio | 114.9 | 89.3 | 86.1 |
| Oklahoma | 115.9 | 90 | 89.6 |
| Oregon | 106.5 | 78.7 | 78.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 112.8 | 88.7 | 87.4 |
| Rhode Island | 109.5 | 84.3 | 82.1 |
| South Carolina | 121 | 93.3 | 90.9 |
| South Dakota | 108.5 | 88.3 | 94.5 |
| Tennessee | 121.5 | 95.3 | 90.1 |
| Texas | 120 | 92.9 | 91.4 |
| Utah | 123.6 | 94 | 87.5 |
| Vermont | 99.4 | 76.6 | 76.6 |
| Virginia | 117.7 | 91.4 | 91.1 |
| Washington | 110.2 | 83.9 | 82.3 |
| West Virginia | 109.1 | 88.6 | 84.3 |
| Wisconsin | 110.5 | 85.6 | 84.6 |
| Wyoming | 122.7 | 87.8 | 91.8 |
Trump, who won New Hampshire by nearly 20 points over second-place finisher Ohio Gov. John Kasich, got 44 percent of Republican support in our national poll conducted immediately after the primary. That was an increase of six percentage points from our poll conducted immediately before the primary.
GOP:
| ICS | 1/1/20 | 1/15/20 | 2/1/20 | 2/15/20 | 3/1/20 | 3/15/20 | 4/1/20 | 4/15/20 | 5/1/20 | 5/15/20 | 6/1/20 | 6/15/20 | 7/1/20 | 7/15/20 | 8/1/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 125.5 | 123.8 | 125.1 | 128.2 | 128.1 | 125.1 | 110.8 | 97 | 97.4 | 98.8 | 98.8 | 100.3 | 99.7 | 99.1 | 98.7 |
| AK | 117.4 | 119.2 | 119.2 | 115 | 112.8 | 111.8 | 106.3 | 89.5 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 80.1 | 79.7 | 80.6 | 83.3 | 84 |
| AZ | 116.5 | 117.8 | 118.2 | 119 | 118.5 | 115.3 | 98.7 | 87 | 87.5 | 88.8 | 89.1 | 92 | 92.1 | 88.8 | 87 |
| AR | 118.6 | 118.6 | 116.9 | 118.4 | 117.8 | 113.3 | 100.1 | 90.2 | 90.1 | 92.2 | 92.8 | 94.5 | 93.9 | 92.1 | 90.7 |
| CA | 111.1 | 110.6 | 110.8 | 112.2 | 111.5 | 107.7 | 92.7 | 81.6 | 80.4 | 80.6 | 82.3 | 85.2 | 86 | 84.8 | 83.5 |
| CO | 108.8 | 110.3 | 110.6 | 110.8 | 112.8 | 110.1 | 92.4 | 80 | 78.1 | 78.2 | 82.7 | 83.4 | 82 | 83.8 | 83.7 |
| CT | 107.7 | 106.5 | 107.4 | 110.3 | 109.6 | 105 | 90.7 | 78.2 | 75.1 | 75.5 | 78.6 | 84.2 | 86.7 | 85 | 84.7 |
| DE | 115.5 | 115.2 | 115.1 | 117.6 | 115.5 | 110.2 | 96.7 | 85.7 | 82.1 | 84 | 87.7 | 90.1 | 89.4 | 88.7 | 87.3 |
| FL | 119.1 | 119 | 119.5 | 120 | 118.6 | 115.2 | 100 | 87.3 | 86.9 | 89.4 | 91.2 | 93 | 92.9 | 90.7 | 89.2 |
| GA | 123.6 | 124.4 | 124.4 | 125.5 | 126 | 121.9 | 108.4 | 96.7 | 94.7 | 95.5 | 95.8 | 97.9 | 97.6 | 96.7 | 95.7 |
| HI | 104.5 | 106.9 | 105.5 | 105 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 84 | 75.4 | 72.5 | 74.1 | 76.8 | 76 | 74 | 72.9 | 73 |
| ID | 119.5 | 120.8 | 118.7 | 122.7 | 124.3 | 121.9 | 105.1 | 89.2 | 88.2 | 90.8 | 94.5 | 96.8 | 99 | 96.3 | 95 |
| IL | 111.8 | 111.7 | 111.1 | 111.5 | 112 | 109.2 | 92.8 | 81.1 | 79.8 | 80.9 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 84.6 | 86 | 85.8 |
| IN | 117.9 | 118.7 | 119.6 | 120.1 | 119.9 | 118 | 101.1 | 87.4 | 85.3 | 86.9 | 89.5 | 92.1 | 93.3 | 91.2 | 88.6 |
| IA | 108.1 | 109.4 | 109.7 | 109.8 | 110.6 | 106 | 90.2 | 78.9 | 80.4 | 80.9 | 82.2 | 87.7 | 86.1 | 84 | 84 |
| KS | 116.3 | 115.5 | 115.6 | 114.8 | 112.6 | 108.5 | 92.5 | 80.6 | 82 | 81.8 | 82.4 | 88.2 | 87.7 | 86.4 | 86.4 |
| KY | 115 | 115.1 | 114.8 | 115.8 | 116.4 | 114 | 100.9 | 86.6 | 84.8 | 87.3 | 88.8 | 90.7 | 89.8 | 89.1 | 88.7 |
| LA | 119.3 | 120.4 | 121.6 | 123.2 | 125.4 | 123.4 | 110.2 | 95.5 | 93.3 | 95.6 | 97.4 | 99.2 | 99.4 | 95.8 | 93.3 |
| ME | 107.6 | 107.2 | 109.5 | 110.7 | 111.3 | 107.3 | 87.1 | 75.5 | 74.9 | 75.6 | 77.2 | 78.5 | 80.1 | 80.6 | 80 |
| MD | 113 | 112.7 | 112.3 | 113.1 | 113.9 | 110.2 | 93.7 | 81 | 79.5 | 81.2 | 83.7 | 86.4 | 88.1 | 86.5 | 85 |
| MA | 108.4 | 107 | 107.7 | 108.2 | 107.7 | 104.8 | 89.9 | 77.9 | 75.7 | 75.4 | 77.1 | 81.2 | 83.9 | 82.8 | 83.2 |
| MI | 111.8 | 113.3 | 113.1 | 114.1 | 114.5 | 111.1 | 94.6 | 81.2 | 80.1 | 81.4 | 81.3 | 84.2 | 88 | 86.9 | 85.2 |
| MN | 115 | 115.1 | 115 | 117.3 | 116 | 112.1 | 93 | 79.1 | 79.5 | 78.9 | 78.7 | 84.9 | 90.1 | 91 | 87.6 |
| MS | 122.1 | 120.6 | 122.4 | 123.1 | 123.3 | 121.2 | 106.3 | 96.5 | 94.2 | 92.6 | 93.5 | 94.3 | 97.5 | 97.4 | 92.2 |
| MO | 119 | 121.2 | 119.4 | 119.4 | 120.7 | 118.1 | 101.4 | 89 | 88 | 88.3 | 90.4 | 91.2 | 91.4 | 91.7 | 88.9 |
| MT | 119.3 | 119 | 116.3 | 117.1 | 115.1 | 114 | 100.2 | 86.2 | 85.7 | 87.9 | 91.7 | 99.4 | 96 | 88.2 | 87 |
| NE | 117.9 | 119.2 | 117 | 118.4 | 119.3 | 116 | 93.5 | 78.6 | 83.5 | 86.9 | 88.2 | 88 | 87.8 | 87.4 | 85 |
| NV | 121.8 | 120 | 120.4 | 122.2 | 121.8 | 115.2 | 95.8 | 87.2 | 85.9 | 84.5 | 86.1 | 87 | 86.6 | 86.8 | 86.7 |
| NH | 109.3 | 112.1 | 110.6 | 109.5 | 109.5 | 106.8 | 91 | 79.8 | 77.4 | 77.3 | 76.2 | 82.2 | 83.4 | 80.4 | 81.2 |
| NJ | 111.7 | 111.8 | 111.6 | 112.2 | 111.8 | 108.1 | 91.7 | 80.4 | 79.6 | 79.3 | 80.9 | 84.4 | 86.7 | 86.5 | 85.2 |
| NM | 114.4 | 114.9 | 111.5 | 111.8 | 115 | 108.5 | 100.1 | 90 | 87.1 | 91.9 | 87 | 87.5 | 92.3 | 86.5 | 83.5 |
| NY | 112.2 | 112.8 | 112.2 | 112.7 | 112.4 | 109.4 | 94.5 | 83.1 | 81.5 | 81 | 82.5 | 85.9 | 88.4 | 89.2 | 88.9 |
| NC | 118.8 | 119.4 | 119.7 | 120.5 | 121.3 | 117.1 | 99.4 | 87.1 | 88.7 | 91.3 | 91.4 | 92 | 92.9 | 92.5 | 91.4 |
| ND | 120.1 | 121.6 | 115.6 | 111.9 | 116.9 | 117.5 | 100.6 | 82 | 79.7 | 84.2 | 85.4 | 85.9 | 86.9 | 89.7 | 88.3 |
| OH | 114.9 | 114.9 | 114.9 | 116.5 | 116.6 | 112.9 | 96.8 | 84.1 | 82.5 | 83.6 | 85.7 | 88.6 | 89.3 | 87 | 86.1 |
| OK | 115.9 | 119.2 | 117.6 | 117.9 | 118.9 | 115.9 | 103.3 | 92.1 | 90.6 | 91.8 | 90.5 | 90.3 | 90 | 89.7 | 89.6 |
| OR | 106.5 | 108.3 | 109.3 | 109.9 | 107.3 | 102.4 | 88.6 | 76.6 | 77.3 | 76.2 | 76.5 | 78.8 | 78.7 | 79.5 | 78.3 |
| PA | 112.8 | 113.2 | 114.1 | 115.7 | 114.8 | 110.8 | 95.3 | 82.3 | 80.3 | 80.5 | 83.4 | 87.5 | 88.7 | 88.1 | 87.4 |
| RI | 109.5 | 111.7 | 110.7 | 109.8 | 111 | 107.5 | 87 | 77.1 | 79.3 | 78.9 | 81.9 | 85.5 | 84.3 | 83.2 | 82.1 |
| SC | 121 | 120.9 | 121.3 | 123.1 | 124.1 | 121.7 | 105 | 91.4 | 90.9 | 92.5 | 93.1 | 93 | 93.3 | 91.8 | 90.9 |
| SD | 108.5 | 110.1 | 111.5 | 112.6 | 115 | 113.8 | 98.4 | 81.6 | 80.5 | 90.4 | 88.1 | 89.5 | 88.3 | 90.8 | 94.5 |
| TN | 121.5 | 122.1 | 122 | 122.8 | 123.2 | 119.5 | 103.1 | 92.9 | 92.6 | 90.9 | 93 | 95.1 | 95.3 | 92.5 | 90.1 |
| TX | 120 | 120.9 | 120.8 | 121.2 | 120.6 | 118.2 | 103 | 89.7 | 87.8 | 89.3 | 91 | 92.6 | 92.9 | 91.2 | 91.4 |
| UT | 123.6 | 123 | 122 | 122.8 | 123.2 | 118 | 102.3 | 89.5 | 88.5 | 89.2 | 94.4 | 95.4 | 94 | 91.6 | 87.5 |
| VT | 99.4 | 101.5 | 99.6 | 93.2 | 95.1 | 95.3 | 83.3 | 68 | 70 | 74.6 | 75 | 75.2 | 76.6 | 77.5 | 76.6 |
| VA | 117.7 | 117.8 | 118.5 | 119.4 | 118.8 | 116.5 | 102.5 | 89 | 86.5 | 87.8 | 89.6 | 91.2 | 91.4 | 92.8 | 91.1 |
| WA | 110.2 | 111.2 | 109.9 | 109.2 | 107.4 | 103.6 | 89.3 | 79 | 80.8 | 82.4 | 83.1 | 82.4 | 83.9 | 85.3 | 82.3 |
| WV | 109.1 | 108.4 | 108.6 | 110.9 | 111.6 | 110.5 | 99.4 | 85.2 | 85.4 | 87.3 | 87.1 | 88 | 88.6 | 85.8 | 84.3 |
| WI | 110.5 | 112.5 | 111.3 | 112.1 | 112.3 | 106.8 | 88.3 | 78.4 | 78.9 | 77.7 | 80.7 | 83.3 | 85.6 | 85.7 | 84.6 |
| WY | 122.7 | 120.8 | 116.3 | 122.8 | 124.2 | 115.9 | 103.3 | 92.1 | 90.6 | 89 | 89.4 | 92.4 | 87.8 | 87 | 91.8 |
Cruz, who saw an increase in national support after his win at the Iowa caucuses, held steady at 17 percent after his third-place finish in New Hampshire. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was the biggest loser coming out of New Hampshire, losing five percentage points in our poll after the primary. Rubio initially gained three percentage points in our poll after his third-place victory in Iowa, but his weak showing in New Hampshire eroded that gain and then some. Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush each gained two percentage points from Iowa to New Hampshire.
This poll was conducted from February 10-11, 2016, among a national sample of 1,600 registered voters. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, region, annual household income, home ownership status and marital status. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. See the toplines and crosstabs.
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