Trump Drops Slightly, Clinton Holds Steady in New Poll

Rubio has voiced misgivings about Tillerson's nomination. (Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult)

By Morning Consult Staff

February 17, 2016 at 5:30 am ET

As voters in South Carolina and Nevada prepare to weigh in on the presidential nominating contests this weekend, a new Morning Consult national survey shows little movement at the top.

On the GOP side, billionaire and front-runner Donald Trump dropped three percentage points, bringing in 41 percent of the vote. At 12 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s support was also slightly down. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio picked up a little momentum to finish second with 14 percent. Ben Carson also saw small gains, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush each dropped a percentage point.

ICS	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August
AL	125.1	128.1	110.8	97.4	98.8	99.7	98.7	98.7
AK	119.2	112.8	106.3	78.2	80.1	80.6	84	85.5
AZ	118.2	118.5	98.7	87.5	89.1	92.1	87	91.6
AR	116.9	117.8	100.1	90.1	92.8	93.9	90.7	91.8
CA	110.8	111.5	92.7	80.4	82.3	86	83.5	86
CO	110.6	112.8	92.4	78.1	82.7	82	83.7	85.4
CT	107.4	109.6	90.7	75.1	78.6	86.7	84.7	87.5
DE	115.1	115.5	96.7	82.1	87.7	89.4	87.3	91.1
FL	119.5	118.6	100	86.9	91.2	92.9	89.2	91.7
GA	124.4	126	108.4	94.7	95.8	97.6	95.7	99.1
HI	105.5	106.1	84	72.5	76.8	74	73	70.7
ID	118.7	124.3	105.1	88.2	94.5	99	95	94.4
IL	111.1	112	92.8	79.8	82.8	84.6	85.8	85.1
IN	119.6	119.9	101.1	85.3	89.5	93.3	88.6	91.9
IA	109.7	110.6	90.2	80.4	82.2	86.1	84	86.5
KS	115.6	112.6	92.5	82	82.4	87.7	86.4	88.2
KY	114.8	116.4	100.9	84.8	88.8	89.8	88.7	89.2
LA	121.6	125.4	110.2	93.3	97.4	99.4	93.3	95
ME	109.5	111.3	87.1	74.9	77.2	80.1	80	78.9
MD	112.3	113.9	93.7	79.5	83.7	88.1	85	88.4
MA	107.7	107.7	89.9	75.7	77.1	83.9	83.2	83.3
MI	113.1	114.5	94.6	80.1	81.3	88	85.2	87.5
MN	115	116	93	79.5	78.7	90.1	87.6	89.6
MS	122.4	123.3	106.3	94.2	93.5	97.5	92.2	93.3
MO	119.4	120.7	101.4	88	90.4	91.4	88.9	91.8
MT	116.3	115.1	100.2	85.7	91.7	96	87	86.4
NE	117	119.3	93.5	83.5	88.2	87.8	85	93
NV	120.4	121.8	95.8	85.9	86.1	86.6	86.7	90.2
NH	110.6	109.5	91	77.4	76.2	83.4	81.2	79.3
NJ	111.6	111.8	91.7	79.6	80.9	86.7	85.2	87.5
NM	111.5	115	100.1	87.1	87	92.3	83.5	87.4
NY	112.2	112.4	94.5	81.5	82.5	88.4	88.9	89.5
NC	119.7	121.3	99.4	88.7	91.4	92.9	91.4	93.3
ND	115.6	116.9	100.6	79.7	85.4	86.9	88.3	85.5
OH	114.9	116.6	96.8	82.5	85.7	89.3	86.1	87.9
OK	117.6	118.9	103.3	90.6	90.5	90	89.6	90.7
OR	109.3	107.3	88.6	77.3	76.5	78.7	78.3	81.7
PA	114.1	114.8	95.3	80.3	83.4	88.7	87.4	89.6
RI	110.7	111	87	79.3	81.9	84.3	82.1	89.4
SC	121.3	124.1	105	90.9	93.1	93.3	90.9	95.2
SD	111.5	115	98.4	80.5	88.1	88.3	94.5	95
TN	122	123.2	103.1	92.6	93	95.3	90.1	94.5
TX	120.8	120.6	103	87.8	91	92.9	91.4	93.6
UT	122	123.2	102.3	88.5	94.4	94	87.5	89.1
VT	99.6	95.1	83.3	70	75	76.6	76.6	79.6
VA	118.5	118.8	102.5	86.5	89.6	91.4	91.1	90
WA	109.9	107.4	89.3	80.8	83.1	83.9	82.3	84.2
WV	108.6	111.6	99.4	85.4	87.1	88.6	84.3	86
WI	111.3	112.3	88.3	78.9	80.7	85.6	84.6	83.7
WY	116.3	124.2	103.3	90.6	89.4	87.8	91.8	88.6

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton increased her lead slightly with 47 percent of the vote. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) held steady at 39 percent.

Demographic	5/6/20				5/7/20				5/8/20				5/9/20				5/10/20				5/11/20				5/12/20				5/13/20				5/14/20				5/15/20				5/16/20				5/17/20				5/18/20				5/19/20				5/20/20				5/21/20				5/22/20				5/23/20				5/24/20				5/25/20				5/26/20				5/27/20				5/28/20				5/29/20				5/30/20				5/31/20				6/1/20				6/2/20				6/3/20				6/4/20				6/5/20				6/6/20				6/7/20				6/8/20				6/9/20				6/10/20				6/11/20				6/12/20				6/13/20				6/14/20				6/15/20				6/16/20				6/17/20				6/18/20				6/19/20				6/20/20				6/21/20				6/22/20				6/23/20				6/24/20				6/25/20				6/26/20				6/27/20				6/28/20				6/29/20				6/30/20				7/1/20				7/2/20				7/3/20				7/4/20				7/5/20				7/6/20				7/7/20				7/8/20				7/9/20				7/10/20				7/11/20				7/12/20				7/13/20				7/14/20				7/15/20				7/16/20				7/17/20				7/18/20				7/19/20				7/20/20				7/21/20				7/22/20				7/23/20				7/24/20				7/25/20				7/26/20				7/27/20				7/28/20				7/29/20				7/30/20				7/31/20				8/1/20				8/2/20				8/3/20				8/4/20				8/5/20				8/6/20				8/7/20				8/8/20				8/9/20				8/10/20				8/11/20				8/12/20				8/13/20				8/14/20				8/15/20				8/16/20				8/17/20				8/18/20				8/19/20				8/20/20				8/21/20				8/22/20				8/23/20
Likely Voters	49	44	3	4	49	44	3	4	49	44	3	4	48	44	3	4	48	45	3	5	48	45	3	5	48	45	3	5	48	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	43	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	43	3	5	48	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	48	45	3	4	49	44	3	4	48	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	49	43	3	5	49	43	3	5	49	43	3	5	49	43	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	43	3	4	51	42	3	4	51	42	3	4	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	3	4	50	42	3	4	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	2	5	50	42	2	5	50	43	2	4	51	42	3	4	50	43	3	4	51	42	3	4	51	42	3	4	51	42	3	4	50	42	3	5	50	43	3	4	50	42	3	5	51	42	3	4	50	42	3	4	51	42	3	4	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	50	42	3	4	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	50	42	3	5	51	43	2	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	50	43	3	4	50	43	2	4	50	43	2	4	50	43	2	4	51	42	2	4	51	42	2	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	3	5	51	42	2	5	51	42	2	5	51	43	2	4	51	43	2	4	51	43	2	4	50	43	3	4	51	43	2	4	51	42	2	5	51	42	2	5	51	43	2	4	51	43	2	4	51	43	2	4	52	42	2	4	51	43	2	4	52	42	2	4	51	43	2	4	52	43	2	4	52	42	2	4
Democrats	90	5	2	3	90	5	2	2	90	6	2	2	90	5	2	2	90	6	2	2	90	5	2	2	90	6	2	2	91	5	2	2	90	5	2	3	91	5	2	3	90	5	2	2	90	5	2	2	89	5	2	3	89	5	2	3	90	5	2	3	91	5	2	3	91	4	2	3	90	5	2	3	90	5	2	3	90	6	2	2	90	6	2	2	90	6	2	2	90	5	2	3	90	5	2	3	90	5	2	3	90	5	2	2	91	5	2	2	91	5	2	2	91	5	2	2	91	6	2	2	90	6	2	2	91	5	2	3	91	5	2	2	91	4	2	2	91	4	2	2	91	4	2	2	91	5	2	2	91	5	2	2	92	4	2	3	92	4	2	2	92	4	2	2	92	5	2	2	91	5	2	2	92	5	2	2	91	5	2	3	91	5	2	2	90	5	2	3	90	5	2	2	90	5	2	3	91	5	1	3	92	4	1	3	92	4	1	3	92	4	2	2	92	4	2	2	92	4	2	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	2	2	92	5	2	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	4	1	2	91	5	2	2	92	5	2	2	92	5	2	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	91	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	91	5	1	3	92	5	1	2	91	5	1	2	91	5	1	3	91	5	1	3	91	5	1	2	91	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	4	1	2	92	4	1	2	91	5	1	3	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	91	5	1	2	91	6	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	92	5	1	2	93	4	1	2	94	4	1	1	94	4	1	2	93	4	1	2	93	5	1	2	92	6	1	2	93	5	0	2	93	6	0	1	93	5	1	1	93	5	0	2
Independents	43	39	8	10	42	40	8	9	43	39	9	9	42	40	8	9	43	39	8	11	43	39	7	11	44	38	7	11	44	38	7	11	44	38	7	11	42	40	6	12	43	39	6	12	43	40	6	11	44	39	6	11	42	40	6	12	42	40	6	11	42	40	7	11	43	38	8	10	44	38	8	10	44	39	7	11	43	40	6	11	44	38	7	11	43	38	7	11	43	38	7	11	42	40	7	11	43	39	7	10	43	38	7	12	43	36	7	13	43	36	7	13	43	37	8	13	44	37	7	12	44	38	6	12	45	38	6	11	46	38	6	10	46	37	6	10	47	37	6	10	47	36	6	11	48	35	6	11	47	36	6	11	48	35	6	10	48	35	7	11	49	34	7	10	46	36	7	11	45	37	7	10	45	37	7	10	46	35	8	11	45	35	8	12	45	36	8	11	44	37	7	12	45	37	6	12	44	36	7	13	45	36	7	11	46	36	7	11	46	37	6	11	46	36	6	11	45	37	7	11	45	37	7	11	45	37	7	11	45	36	7	11	45	36	7	11	46	36	8	11	47	34	7	11	47	35	8	10	47	36	7	10	46	36	8	10	46	35	8	11	45	36	9	11	45	36	9	10	46	36	8	10	47	35	8	10	47	34	8	11	47	34	8	12	46	34	7	12	46	34	7	12	46	35	8	11	47	34	7	12	47	34	7	12	47	34	7	12	46	36	8	11	45	36	8	11	45	37	7	11	45	37	7	11	45	37	6	11	46	36	7	12	45	36	7	12	46	36	7	11	47	36	6	10	48	35	6	10	47	36	7	10	45	38	7	10	45	37	7	10	45	36	8	11	48	35	7	11	47	36	7	11	46	36	6	12	45	37	7	11	46	36	7	11	47	37	7	10	46	36	7	11	45	37	7	11	45	36	7	12	45	36	7	12	46	36	7	11	48	36	7	9	49	36	7	9	49	35	6	9	48	35	6	11	48	36	6	10	47	37	6	10	47	37	5	10	47	37	5	10
Republicans	7	89	1	2	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	6	89	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	91	1	3	6	90	1	2	7	90	1	2	7	89	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	91	1	2	6	91	1	2	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	88	1	4	7	88	1	4	7	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	88	1	4	7	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	88	1	3	7	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	6	90	1	3	7	90	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	2	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	88	1	3	7	88	1	4	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	6	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	88	1	3	7	88	1	3	8	87	1	4	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	90	1	3	6	90	1	2	7	90	1	2	7	90	1	2	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	7	89	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	88	1	3	8	89	1	2
Gen Zers	55	28	10	7	53	31	9	7	51	33	10	7	52	31	10	8	52	30	8	9	57	28	7	8	58	27	7	8	62	24	8	6	59	27	7	7	58	28	6	8	56	30	7	8	59	26	8	8	60	26	7	7	60	23	8	9	55	27	9	10	54	28	8	10	53	30	8	9	57	27	7	9	59	25	8	8	62	26	6	6	59	28	7	6	56	29	7	8	56	27	8	9	56	27	8	9	57	27	7	9	58	26	6	9	61	24	6	9	63	24	5	8	61	27	6	7	59	27	7	7	59	27	7	7	60	26	7	8	59	27	7	7	60	26	7	6	61	25	8	6	62	23	7	8	61	23	8	8	61	23	8	8	63	22	8	7	63	23	7	7	64	22	7	7	60	25	7	7	63	23	8	6	60	25	8	7	59	25	8	8	58	25	7	9	60	24	8	9	60	25	8	7	59	26	7	8	59	27	7	8	60	25	6	9	62	25	5	7	65	23	6	6	65	22	7	6	64	22	8	6	62	24	7	7	65	22	6	7	68	20	6	6	69	20	6	6	66	23	6	5	64	23	6	6	63	23	8	7	59	24	10	7	60	24	9	7	61	24	9	7	65	20	8	7	62	23	9	6	64	23	8	6	61	25	8	6	63	23	8	6	61	25	8	6	62	24	8	6	61	25	7	7	60	25	8	7	61	24	8	8	60	24	8	8	62	23	7	8	62	24	7	7	65	22	7	6	65	22	7	6	66	22	7	5	67	22	6	5	64	23	7	6	62	23	7	8	61	23	8	8	64	22	7	8	66	21	7	6	67	21	6	6	67	22	6	5	66	23	5	6	65	24	5	6	64	24	5	6	64	24	5	7	64	25	4	6	61	29	4	6	59	30	5	6	58	30	6	6	62	26	6	7	62	27	6	6	62	27	6	5	62	26	6	6	64	26	5	5	67	23	5	5	64	26	5	5	62	27	4	7	59	29	3	8	63	27	3	7	66	24	4	6	69	22	4	5	68	22	3	6
Millennials	52	39	4	5	53	39	4	4	54	36	5	4	53	38	5	4	52	39	5	5	51	39	4	5	50	41	4	5	50	41	4	5	51	41	4	4	53	40	3	4	53	39	4	5	53	39	3	4	52	39	4	5	51	41	3	5	52	40	3	5	50	40	5	4	51	40	4	4	51	40	5	4	52	39	4	5	52	40	4	4	52	39	4	4	50	40	5	5	50	39	5	5	50	39	5	6	52	38	5	5	52	38	5	5	51	39	5	6	52	38	5	6	52	38	5	5	54	37	4	5	53	38	4	5	54	38	3	5	55	37	4	4	56	36	4	4	55	36	4	4	56	36	4	5	55	36	4	5	54	36	4	6	52	39	4	5	53	38	4	5	55	36	4	5	56	35	4	5	55	36	4	5	53	37	4	5	52	37	4	6	52	37	5	6	53	37	5	5	52	38	5	5	52	38	4	5	52	39	4	6	53	38	3	5	54	38	3	5	56	37	3	4	56	36	4	4	54	38	3	4	55	37	4	4	54	39	4	4	55	38	4	4	52	39	4	4	52	38	4	5	54	37	4	5	55	37	4	4	56	36	4	4	56	36	4	4	55	36	4	4	53	38	4	5	53	38	4	5	53	38	4	5	54	37	4	5	53	38	4	5	53	38	4	5	52	39	4	5	53	38	4	5	54	38	4	4	53	38	4	5	53	38	4	5	54	37	4	5	53	38	4	5	51	39	5	5	51	40	4	5	51	40	4	5	53	38	4	5	52	39	4	5	53	38	4	5	51	40	4	5	51	41	4	5	51	42	3	4	53	40	3	4	54	39	3	4	54	38	4	5	54	37	4	5	55	36	4	5	55	35	4	5	56	35	4	5	55	37	3	5	54	38	4	4	52	40	4	4	52	40	4	4	51	40	4	5	53	39	4	5	52	39	3	5	53	39	4	5	53	39	3	4	54	39	3	4	54	39	3	4	53	40	3	4	54	39	3	4	56	38	3	4	56	37	2	4	56	37	3	4
Gen Xers	46	47	3	4	46	47	3	4	45	47	3	5	45	47	3	5	45	46	4	5	46	46	3	5	48	44	3	5	48	43	3	6	48	44	3	6	47	44	3	6	46	46	3	5	47	45	3	5	45	46	3	6	45	47	3	5	45	48	3	5	47	46	3	4	48	45	3	4	47	46	3	5	46	46	3	5	47	46	3	5	47	46	2	5	48	44	2	5	49	44	2	5	50	43	2	4	49	45	2	5	48	45	2	5	46	46	2	5	45	47	2	6	45	47	3	6	45	46	3	6	47	45	2	6	49	43	2	6	52	41	2	5	52	40	2	5	52	41	2	5	48	44	3	5	48	45	3	4	47	45	3	5	49	44	3	4	48	44	3	5	48	45	3	5	48	44	3	5	46	46	3	5	46	47	2	5	45	48	2	4	48	45	3	5	49	44	3	5	50	42	3	5	50	42	2	6	49	43	3	5	49	44	3	4	49	43	3	4	49	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	48	45	2	5	48	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	47	45	3	5	46	46	3	5	45	46	3	6	47	45	2	5	48	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	48	44	3	5	46	45	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	43	3	5	48	44	3	5	47	45	3	5	46	47	2	5	46	47	2	5	48	45	2	5	49	43	2	5	48	45	2	5	47	46	2	5	47	45	2	5	48	44	2	5	48	44	2	6	48	45	2	5	47	45	2	5	49	44	2	5	49	44	2	5	50	43	3	5	49	44	2	5	49	45	2	4	49	44	2	4	50	43	2	5	49	43	3	5	49	43	3	5	49	44	2	5	50	43	2	5	49	44	2	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	3	5	49	44	2	5	48	45	2	5	48	45	2	5	48	44	2	5	48	45	2	5	48	45	2	5	49	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	51	43	2	4	50	43	2	4	51	43	2	5	49	44	2	5	49	45	2	4	48	46	2	5
Baby Boomers	48	47	1	4	49	45	2	4	49	46	2	4	48	46	2	4	47	48	2	4	46	48	2	4	47	48	2	4	46	48	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	48	46	1	4	47	47	1	4	48	46	2	5	47	47	2	4	48	46	2	4	48	46	1	4	49	45	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	46	48	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	48	2	4	47	48	2	4	47	48	2	4	47	48	2	4	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	44	2	5	49	44	2	5	48	45	2	5	48	46	2	5	47	47	2	4	47	47	2	4	48	47	2	4	48	46	2	4	48	46	1	4	48	46	1	5	49	45	1	4	49	46	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	50	44	2	4	51	44	2	4	52	43	2	4	51	44	2	4	49	45	2	4	48	46	2	5	48	45	2	5	49	44	2	5	50	44	1	4	49	45	1	4	48	46	1	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	46	2	4	49	45	1	4	49	45	2	4	50	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	46	2	4	50	44	1	5	49	45	1	5	49	45	1	4	49	46	2	4	50	45	2	4	50	44	2	5	50	43	2	5	50	43	2	5	50	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	49	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	51	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	50	45	1	4	50	45	2	4	50	45	1	4	50	45	1	4	50	45	1	4	49	45	1	4	48	46	1	4	48	46	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	45	2	4	49	46	2	4	49	45	1	4	49	46	1	4	49	46	1	4	50	44	2	4	50	44	2	4	51	44	2	4	51	44	1	4	51	44	1	4	51	44	2	3	50	45	1	3	50	45	1	4	51	44	1	4	51	44	1	4	50	45	1	4	49	46	1	4	49	46	1	4	50	45	1	4

The Morning Consult survey polled 1,763 registered voters on Feb. 15 and Feb. 16, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. See the toplines and crosstabs.

Morning Consult Staff

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Trump Drops Slightly, Clinton Holds Steady in New Poll

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