Poll: Sanders Gains on Clinton; Trump Increases Lead

Sanders is just three points behind Clinton in our new poll. (Image via Flickr)

By Cameron Easley

March 14, 2016 at 1:15 pm ET

After several weeks of stagnation on the Democratic side of the presidential race, a new Morning Consult poll shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) gaining on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In the new survey, taken March 11 through March 13, 40 percent of likely Democratic voters back Sanders, up from 36 percent a few days earlier. And while Sanders’ support grew 4 percentage points, Clinton’s declined by 4 points, to 48 percent.

It’s the first time since mid-February that Clinton’s support dipped below 50 percent.

ICS	Jan-20	Feb-20	Mar-20	Apr-20	May-20	Jun-20	Jul-20	Aug-20	Sep-20	Oct-20	Nov-20	Dec-20	Jan-21
AL	125.1	128.1	110.8	97.4	98.8	99.7	98.7	98.7	103	104.5	93	92.4	87.3
AK	119.2	112.8	106.3	78.2	80.1	80.6	84	85.5	81.2	87.9	87	85.8	90
AZ	118.2	118.5	98.7	87.5	89.1	92.1	87	91.6	98	99.1	92	89.8	89.1
AR	116.9	117.8	100.1	90.1	92.8	93.9	90.7	91.8	95.2	97	91.2	85.9	86
CA	110.8	111.5	92.7	80.4	82.3	86	83.5	86	89.6	91.7	90	88.4	91.6
CO	110.6	112.8	92.4	78.1	82.7	82	83.7	85.4	90.2	91.4	87	86.2	88.7
CT	107.4	109.6	90.7	75.1	78.6	86.7	84.7	87.5	89.9	90.3	87.8	83.7	88.9
DE	115.1	115.5	96.7	82.1	87.7	89.4	87.3	91.1	91.2	97.4	91.2	87.9	93.2
FL	119.5	118.6	100	86.9	91.2	92.9	89.2	91.7	95.2	96.8	93.8	91.3	92.3
GA	124.4	126	108.4	94.7	95.8	97.6	95.7	99.1	101.9	104.9	99.4	94.3	94.4
HI	105.5	106.1	84	72.5	76.8	74	73	70.7	72.3	74.2	78.6	83.9	85
ID	118.7	124.3	105.1	88.2	94.5	99	95	94.4	98.6	95.4	91.2	88.7	87.1
IL	111.1	112	92.8	79.8	82.8	84.6	85.8	85.1	89.3	90.1	88.5	87.9	92
IN	119.6	119.9	101.1	85.3	89.5	93.3	88.6	91.9	94.2	94.3	86.5	86.6	85.8
IA	109.7	110.6	90.2	80.4	82.2	86.1	84	86.5	86.2	87.9	83.5	83	87
KS	115.6	112.6	92.5	82	82.4	87.7	86.4	88.2	90.5	94.4	85.5	85.9	85.3
KY	114.8	116.4	100.9	84.8	88.8	89.8	88.7	89.2	92.3	92.9	85.9	81.1	82.4
LA	121.6	125.4	110.2	93.3	97.4	99.4	93.3	95	100.1	97.8	92.8	89.7	86.1
ME	109.5	111.3	87.1	74.9	77.2	80.1	80	78.9	83.6	82.4	81.4	78.1	85.9
MD	112.3	113.9	93.7	79.5	83.7	88.1	85	88.4	90.8	90.3	90	90.4	92.8
MA	107.7	107.7	89.9	75.7	77.1	83.9	83.2	83.3	85.5	83.8	86.5	87.9	91.6
MI	113.1	114.5	94.6	80.1	81.3	88	85.2	87.5	90.9	92.1	86	85.2	86.9
MN	115	116	93	79.5	78.7	90.1	87.6	89.6	94.3	93.1	89.9	90.4	88.1
MS	122.4	123.3	106.3	94.2	93.5	97.5	92.2	93.3	97.6	95.7	90.2	89.1	89.4
MO	119.4	120.7	101.4	88	90.4	91.4	88.9	91.8	95.4	96.4	89.3	89	86
MT	116.3	115.1	100.2	85.7	91.7	96	87	86.4	91.9	97.5	83.8	80.6	74.4
NE	117	119.3	93.5	83.5	88.2	87.8	85	93	95.6	92.4	87.5	86.2	87.1
NV	120.4	121.8	95.8	85.9	86.1	86.6	86.7	90.2	92.1	92.5	89.1	84.5	88
NH	110.6	109.5	91	77.4	76.2	83.4	81.2	79.3	82.7	82.6	83.7	86.7	87.5
NJ	111.6	111.8	91.7	79.6	80.9	86.7	85.2	87.5	90.3	90.6	90.1	89.7	91.3
NM	111.5	115	100.1	87.1	87	92.3	83.5	87.4	86.9	89.1	84.9	81.5	87.2
NY	112.2	112.4	94.5	81.5	82.5	88.4	88.9	89.5	92	92.5	91.9	91.8	93.8
NC	119.7	121.3	99.4	88.7	91.4	92.9	91.4	93.3	95.4	96.7	93.1	90.4	90.6
ND	115.6	116.9	100.6	79.7	85.4	86.9	88.3	85.5	87.4	89.9	85.4	77.9	79.6
OH	114.9	116.6	96.8	82.5	85.7	89.3	86.1	87.9	93.3	94.6	88.9	87.3	89.4
OK	117.6	118.9	103.3	90.6	90.5	90	89.6	90.7	95.5	94.3	86.1	86.5	88.9
OR	109.3	107.3	88.6	77.3	76.5	78.7	78.3	81.7	83.1	86.1	86	80.4	82.1
PA	114.1	114.8	95.3	80.3	83.4	88.7	87.4	89.6	91.4	93.1	86.6	83	84.9
RI	110.7	111	87	79.3	81.9	84.3	82.1	89.4	89.9	88.4	80.9	87.1	87.7
SC	121.3	124.1	105	90.9	93.1	93.3	90.9	95.2	98	98.2	94.3	90.5	89.6
SD	111.5	115	98.4	80.5	88.1	88.3	94.5	95	91.7	87.9	79.8	88.4	78.2
TN	122	123.2	103.1	92.6	93	95.3	90.1	94.5	96.3	96	90.4	89	86.4
TX	120.8	120.6	103	87.8	91	92.9	91.4	93.6	96.4	98.5	92.7	91.5	92.9
UT	122	123.2	102.3	88.5	94.4	94	87.5	89.1	95.7	96.5	89.1	90	90.5
VT	99.6	95.1	83.3	70	75	76.6	76.6	79.6	75.3	77.7	75.6	80.2	84.9
VA	118.5	118.8	102.5	86.5	89.6	91.4	91.1	90	94.1	93.6	92.2	88.7	90.8
WA	109.9	107.4	89.3	80.8	83.1	83.9	82.3	84.2	85.2	86	84.7	80.4	87.8
WV	108.6	111.6	99.4	85.4	87.1	88.6	84.3	86	91.1	92.9	83.9	75.1	70.5
WI	111.3	112.3	88.3	78.9	80.7	85.6	84.6	83.7	88.6	90.2	87.5	85.9	87.3
WY	116.3	124.2	103.3	90.6	89.4	87.8	91.8	88.6	100.3	94.2	92.5	78	88.5

On the Republican side, Donald Trump remains the front-runner with 42 percent of likely GOP voters opting for the real estate mogul. After surging in our previous poll, Sen. Ted Cruz held steady in second: 23 percent of respondents said they would support the Texas Republican.

The new poll also brought more bad news for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who will face heavy pressure to drop out of the race if he fails to win his home state on Tuesday. Only 12 percent of respondents said they would pick Rubio, down 2 percentage points from the previous poll.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who also faces a must-win race in his own state Tuesday, also dropped one percentage point (to 9 percent) from our previous poll.

ICS	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
AL	125.1	128.1	110.8	97.4	98.8	99.7	98.7	98.7	103	104.5	93	92.4
AK	119.2	112.8	106.3	78.2	80.1	80.6	84	85.5	81.2	87.9	87	85.8
AZ	118.2	118.5	98.7	87.5	89.1	92.1	87	91.6	98	99.1	92	89.8
AR	116.9	117.8	100.1	90.1	92.8	93.9	90.7	91.8	95.2	97	91.2	85.9
CA	110.8	111.5	92.7	80.4	82.3	86	83.5	86	89.6	91.7	90	88.4
CO	110.6	112.8	92.4	78.1	82.7	82	83.7	85.4	90.2	91.4	87	86.2
CT	107.4	109.6	90.7	75.1	78.6	86.7	84.7	87.5	89.9	90.3	87.8	83.7
DE	115.1	115.5	96.7	82.1	87.7	89.4	87.3	91.1	91.2	97.4	91.2	87.9
FL	119.5	118.6	100	86.9	91.2	92.9	89.2	91.7	95.2	96.8	93.8	91.3
GA	124.4	126	108.4	94.7	95.8	97.6	95.7	99.1	101.9	104.9	99.4	94.3
HI	105.5	106.1	84	72.5	76.8	74	73	70.7	72.3	74.2	78.6	83.9
ID	118.7	124.3	105.1	88.2	94.5	99	95	94.4	98.6	95.4	91.2	88.7
IL	111.1	112	92.8	79.8	82.8	84.6	85.8	85.1	89.3	90.1	88.5	87.9
IN	119.6	119.9	101.1	85.3	89.5	93.3	88.6	91.9	94.2	94.3	86.5	86.6
IA	109.7	110.6	90.2	80.4	82.2	86.1	84	86.5	86.2	87.9	83.5	83
KS	115.6	112.6	92.5	82	82.4	87.7	86.4	88.2	90.5	94.4	85.5	85.9
KY	114.8	116.4	100.9	84.8	88.8	89.8	88.7	89.2	92.3	92.9	85.9	81.1
LA	121.6	125.4	110.2	93.3	97.4	99.4	93.3	95	100.1	97.8	92.8	89.7
ME	109.5	111.3	87.1	74.9	77.2	80.1	80	78.9	83.6	82.4	81.4	78.1
MD	112.3	113.9	93.7	79.5	83.7	88.1	85	88.4	90.8	90.3	90	90.4
MA	107.7	107.7	89.9	75.7	77.1	83.9	83.2	83.3	85.5	83.8	86.5	87.9
MI	113.1	114.5	94.6	80.1	81.3	88	85.2	87.5	90.9	92.1	86	85.2
MN	115	116	93	79.5	78.7	90.1	87.6	89.6	94.3	93.1	89.9	90.4
MS	122.4	123.3	106.3	94.2	93.5	97.5	92.2	93.3	97.6	95.7	90.2	89.1
MO	119.4	120.7	101.4	88	90.4	91.4	88.9	91.8	95.4	96.4	89.3	89
MT	116.3	115.1	100.2	85.7	91.7	96	87	86.4	91.9	97.5	83.8	80.6
NE	117	119.3	93.5	83.5	88.2	87.8	85	93	95.6	92.4	87.5	86.2
NV	120.4	121.8	95.8	85.9	86.1	86.6	86.7	90.2	92.1	92.5	89.1	84.5
NH	110.6	109.5	91	77.4	76.2	83.4	81.2	79.3	82.7	82.6	83.7	86.7
NJ	111.6	111.8	91.7	79.6	80.9	86.7	85.2	87.5	90.3	90.6	90.1	89.7
NM	111.5	115	100.1	87.1	87	92.3	83.5	87.4	86.9	89.1	84.9	81.5
NY	112.2	112.4	94.5	81.5	82.5	88.4	88.9	89.5	92	92.5	91.9	91.8
NC	119.7	121.3	99.4	88.7	91.4	92.9	91.4	93.3	95.4	96.7	93.1	90.4
ND	115.6	116.9	100.6	79.7	85.4	86.9	88.3	85.5	87.4	89.9	85.4	77.9
OH	114.9	116.6	96.8	82.5	85.7	89.3	86.1	87.9	93.3	94.6	88.9	87.3
OK	117.6	118.9	103.3	90.6	90.5	90	89.6	90.7	95.5	94.3	86.1	86.5
OR	109.3	107.3	88.6	77.3	76.5	78.7	78.3	81.7	83.1	86.1	86	80.4
PA	114.1	114.8	95.3	80.3	83.4	88.7	87.4	89.6	91.4	93.1	86.6	83
RI	110.7	111	87	79.3	81.9	84.3	82.1	89.4	89.9	88.4	80.9	87.1
SC	121.3	124.1	105	90.9	93.1	93.3	90.9	95.2	98	98.2	94.3	90.5
SD	111.5	115	98.4	80.5	88.1	88.3	94.5	95	91.7	87.9	79.8	88.4
TN	122	123.2	103.1	92.6	93	95.3	90.1	94.5	96.3	96	90.4	89
TX	120.8	120.6	103	87.8	91	92.9	91.4	93.6	96.4	98.5	92.7	91.5
UT	122	123.2	102.3	88.5	94.4	94	87.5	89.1	95.7	96.5	89.1	90
VT	99.6	95.1	83.3	70	75	76.6	76.6	79.6	75.3	77.7	75.6	80.2
VA	118.5	118.8	102.5	86.5	89.6	91.4	91.1	90	94.1	93.6	92.2	88.7
WA	109.9	107.4	89.3	80.8	83.1	83.9	82.3	84.2	85.2	86	84.7	80.4
WV	108.6	111.6	99.4	85.4	87.1	88.6	84.3	86	91.1	92.9	83.9	75.1
WI	111.3	112.3	88.3	78.9	80.7	85.6	84.6	83.7	88.6	90.2	87.5	85.9
WY	116.3	124.2	103.3	90.6	89.4	87.8	91.8	88.6	100.3	94.2	92.5	78

The Morning Consult survey polled 4,027 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. See the toplines and crosstabs.

Cameron Easley
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email press@morningconsult.com.

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Poll: Sanders Gains on Clinton; Trump Increases Lead

Poll: Sanders Gains on Clinton; Trump Increases Lead

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