Rubio’s Loss Is Cruz’s Gain in GOP Race, Polling Shows

Rubio has voiced misgivings about Tillerson's nomination. (Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult)

By Cameron Easley

March 15, 2016 at 8:48 pm ET

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio dropped out of the presidential race Tuesday night shortly after suffering a heavy home-state loss to GOP front-runner Donald Trump, and his Senate colleague Ted Cruz should benefit the most from his exit, according to new Morning Consult polling.

Among 412 Marco Rubio supporters we polled, 47 percent support the Texas senator as a second choice. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said they would back Ohio Gov. John Kasich if Rubio exited the race, and, to little surprise, just 13 percent of Rubio supporters said they’d back Trump.

ICS	January 2020	February 2020	March 2020	April 2020	May 2020	June 2020	July 2020	August 2020	September 2020	October 2020	November 2020	December 2020	January 2021
AL	125.1	128.1	110.8	97.4	98.8	99.7	98.7	98.7	103	104.5	93	92.4	87.3
AK	119.2	112.8	106.3	78.2	80.1	80.6	84	85.5	81.2	87.9	87	85.8	90
AZ	118.2	118.5	98.7	87.5	89.1	92.1	87	91.6	98	99.1	92	89.8	89.1
AR	116.9	117.8	100.1	90.1	92.8	93.9	90.7	91.8	95.2	97	91.2	85.9	86
CA	110.8	111.5	92.7	80.4	82.3	86	83.5	86	89.6	91.7	90	88.4	91.6
CO	110.6	112.8	92.4	78.1	82.7	82	83.7	85.4	90.2	91.4	87	86.2	88.7
CT	107.4	109.6	90.7	75.1	78.6	86.7	84.7	87.5	89.9	90.3	87.8	83.7	88.9
DE	115.1	115.5	96.7	82.1	87.7	89.4	87.3	91.1	91.2	97.4	91.2	87.9	93.2
FL	119.5	118.6	100	86.9	91.2	92.9	89.2	91.7	95.2	96.8	93.8	91.3	92.3
GA	124.4	126	108.4	94.7	95.8	97.6	95.7	99.1	101.9	104.9	99.4	94.3	94.4
HI	105.5	106.1	84	72.5	76.8	74	73	70.7	72.3	74.2	78.6	83.9	85
ID	118.7	124.3	105.1	88.2	94.5	99	95	94.4	98.6	95.4	91.2	88.7	87.1
IL	111.1	112	92.8	79.8	82.8	84.6	85.8	85.1	89.3	90.1	88.5	87.9	92
IN	119.6	119.9	101.1	85.3	89.5	93.3	88.6	91.9	94.2	94.3	86.5	86.6	85.8
IA	109.7	110.6	90.2	80.4	82.2	86.1	84	86.5	86.2	87.9	83.5	83	87
KS	115.6	112.6	92.5	82	82.4	87.7	86.4	88.2	90.5	94.4	85.5	85.9	85.3
KY	114.8	116.4	100.9	84.8	88.8	89.8	88.7	89.2	92.3	92.9	85.9	81.1	82.4
LA	121.6	125.4	110.2	93.3	97.4	99.4	93.3	95	100.1	97.8	92.8	89.7	86.1
ME	109.5	111.3	87.1	74.9	77.2	80.1	80	78.9	83.6	82.4	81.4	78.1	85.9
MD	112.3	113.9	93.7	79.5	83.7	88.1	85	88.4	90.8	90.3	90	90.4	92.8
MA	107.7	107.7	89.9	75.7	77.1	83.9	83.2	83.3	85.5	83.8	86.5	87.9	91.6
MI	113.1	114.5	94.6	80.1	81.3	88	85.2	87.5	90.9	92.1	86	85.2	86.9
MN	115	116	93	79.5	78.7	90.1	87.6	89.6	94.3	93.1	89.9	90.4	88.1
MS	122.4	123.3	106.3	94.2	93.5	97.5	92.2	93.3	97.6	95.7	90.2	89.1	89.4
MO	119.4	120.7	101.4	88	90.4	91.4	88.9	91.8	95.4	96.4	89.3	89	86
MT	116.3	115.1	100.2	85.7	91.7	96	87	86.4	91.9	97.5	83.8	80.6	74.4
NE	117	119.3	93.5	83.5	88.2	87.8	85	93	95.6	92.4	87.5	86.2	87.1
NV	120.4	121.8	95.8	85.9	86.1	86.6	86.7	90.2	92.1	92.5	89.1	84.5	88
NH	110.6	109.5	91	77.4	76.2	83.4	81.2	79.3	82.7	82.6	83.7	86.7	87.5
NJ	111.6	111.8	91.7	79.6	80.9	86.7	85.2	87.5	90.3	90.6	90.1	89.7	91.3
NM	111.5	115	100.1	87.1	87	92.3	83.5	87.4	86.9	89.1	84.9	81.5	87.2
NY	112.2	112.4	94.5	81.5	82.5	88.4	88.9	89.5	92	92.5	91.9	91.8	93.8
NC	119.7	121.3	99.4	88.7	91.4	92.9	91.4	93.3	95.4	96.7	93.1	90.4	90.6
ND	115.6	116.9	100.6	79.7	85.4	86.9	88.3	85.5	87.4	89.9	85.4	77.9	79.6
OH	114.9	116.6	96.8	82.5	85.7	89.3	86.1	87.9	93.3	94.6	88.9	87.3	89.4
OK	117.6	118.9	103.3	90.6	90.5	90	89.6	90.7	95.5	94.3	86.1	86.5	88.9
OR	109.3	107.3	88.6	77.3	76.5	78.7	78.3	81.7	83.1	86.1	86	80.4	82.1
PA	114.1	114.8	95.3	80.3	83.4	88.7	87.4	89.6	91.4	93.1	86.6	83	84.9
RI	110.7	111	87	79.3	81.9	84.3	82.1	89.4	89.9	88.4	80.9	87.1	87.7
SC	121.3	124.1	105	90.9	93.1	93.3	90.9	95.2	98	98.2	94.3	90.5	89.6
SD	111.5	115	98.4	80.5	88.1	88.3	94.5	95	91.7	87.9	79.8	88.4	78.2
TN	122	123.2	103.1	92.6	93	95.3	90.1	94.5	96.3	96	90.4	89	86.4
TX	120.8	120.6	103	87.8	91	92.9	91.4	93.6	96.4	98.5	92.7	91.5	92.9
UT	122	123.2	102.3	88.5	94.4	94	87.5	89.1	95.7	96.5	89.1	90	90.5
VT	99.6	95.1	83.3	70	75	76.6	76.6	79.6	75.3	77.7	75.6	80.2	84.9
VA	118.5	118.8	102.5	86.5	89.6	91.4	91.1	90	94.1	93.6	92.2	88.7	90.8
WA	109.9	107.4	89.3	80.8	83.1	83.9	82.3	84.2	85.2	86	84.7	80.4	87.8
WV	108.6	111.6	99.4	85.4	87.1	88.6	84.3	86	91.1	92.9	83.9	75.1	70.5
WI	111.3	112.3	88.3	78.9	80.7	85.6	84.6	83.7	88.6	90.2	87.5	85.9	87.3
WY	116.3	124.2	103.3	90.6	89.4	87.8	91.8	88.6	100.3	94.2	92.5	78	88.5

Nine percent said someone they’d vote for someone else and 5 percent don’t know.

Morning Consult interviewed 8,732 registered voters from March 11-15, including 3,372 Republican and Republican-leaning independents.

Cameron Easley
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email press@morningconsult.com.

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Rubio’s Loss Is Cruz’s Gain in GOP Race, Polling Shows

Rubio’s Loss Is Cruz’s Gain in GOP Race, Polling Shows

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