March 15, 2016 at 8:48 pm ET
Rubio’s Loss Is Cruz’s Gain in GOP Race, Polling Shows



Rubio has voiced misgivings about Tillerson's nomination. (Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult)
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio dropped out of the presidential race Tuesday night shortly after suffering a heavy home-state loss to GOP front-runner Donald Trump, and his Senate colleague Ted Cruz should benefit the most from his exit, according to new Morning Consult polling.
Among 412 Marco Rubio supporters we polled, 47 percent support the Texas senator as a second choice. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said they would back Ohio Gov. John Kasich if Rubio exited the race, and, to little surprise, just 13 percent of Rubio supporters said they’d back Trump.
ICS | January 2020 | February 2020 | March 2020 | April 2020 | May 2020 | June 2020 | July 2020 | August 2020 | September 2020 | October 2020 | November 2020 | December 2020 | January 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL | 125.1 | 128.1 | 110.8 | 97.4 | 98.8 | 99.7 | 98.7 | 98.7 | 103 | 104.5 | 93 | 92.4 | 87.3 |
AK | 119.2 | 112.8 | 106.3 | 78.2 | 80.1 | 80.6 | 84 | 85.5 | 81.2 | 87.9 | 87 | 85.8 | 90 |
AZ | 118.2 | 118.5 | 98.7 | 87.5 | 89.1 | 92.1 | 87 | 91.6 | 98 | 99.1 | 92 | 89.8 | 89.1 |
AR | 116.9 | 117.8 | 100.1 | 90.1 | 92.8 | 93.9 | 90.7 | 91.8 | 95.2 | 97 | 91.2 | 85.9 | 86 |
CA | 110.8 | 111.5 | 92.7 | 80.4 | 82.3 | 86 | 83.5 | 86 | 89.6 | 91.7 | 90 | 88.4 | 91.6 |
CO | 110.6 | 112.8 | 92.4 | 78.1 | 82.7 | 82 | 83.7 | 85.4 | 90.2 | 91.4 | 87 | 86.2 | 88.7 |
CT | 107.4 | 109.6 | 90.7 | 75.1 | 78.6 | 86.7 | 84.7 | 87.5 | 89.9 | 90.3 | 87.8 | 83.7 | 88.9 |
DE | 115.1 | 115.5 | 96.7 | 82.1 | 87.7 | 89.4 | 87.3 | 91.1 | 91.2 | 97.4 | 91.2 | 87.9 | 93.2 |
FL | 119.5 | 118.6 | 100 | 86.9 | 91.2 | 92.9 | 89.2 | 91.7 | 95.2 | 96.8 | 93.8 | 91.3 | 92.3 |
GA | 124.4 | 126 | 108.4 | 94.7 | 95.8 | 97.6 | 95.7 | 99.1 | 101.9 | 104.9 | 99.4 | 94.3 | 94.4 |
HI | 105.5 | 106.1 | 84 | 72.5 | 76.8 | 74 | 73 | 70.7 | 72.3 | 74.2 | 78.6 | 83.9 | 85 |
ID | 118.7 | 124.3 | 105.1 | 88.2 | 94.5 | 99 | 95 | 94.4 | 98.6 | 95.4 | 91.2 | 88.7 | 87.1 |
IL | 111.1 | 112 | 92.8 | 79.8 | 82.8 | 84.6 | 85.8 | 85.1 | 89.3 | 90.1 | 88.5 | 87.9 | 92 |
IN | 119.6 | 119.9 | 101.1 | 85.3 | 89.5 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 91.9 | 94.2 | 94.3 | 86.5 | 86.6 | 85.8 |
IA | 109.7 | 110.6 | 90.2 | 80.4 | 82.2 | 86.1 | 84 | 86.5 | 86.2 | 87.9 | 83.5 | 83 | 87 |
KS | 115.6 | 112.6 | 92.5 | 82 | 82.4 | 87.7 | 86.4 | 88.2 | 90.5 | 94.4 | 85.5 | 85.9 | 85.3 |
KY | 114.8 | 116.4 | 100.9 | 84.8 | 88.8 | 89.8 | 88.7 | 89.2 | 92.3 | 92.9 | 85.9 | 81.1 | 82.4 |
LA | 121.6 | 125.4 | 110.2 | 93.3 | 97.4 | 99.4 | 93.3 | 95 | 100.1 | 97.8 | 92.8 | 89.7 | 86.1 |
ME | 109.5 | 111.3 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 77.2 | 80.1 | 80 | 78.9 | 83.6 | 82.4 | 81.4 | 78.1 | 85.9 |
MD | 112.3 | 113.9 | 93.7 | 79.5 | 83.7 | 88.1 | 85 | 88.4 | 90.8 | 90.3 | 90 | 90.4 | 92.8 |
MA | 107.7 | 107.7 | 89.9 | 75.7 | 77.1 | 83.9 | 83.2 | 83.3 | 85.5 | 83.8 | 86.5 | 87.9 | 91.6 |
MI | 113.1 | 114.5 | 94.6 | 80.1 | 81.3 | 88 | 85.2 | 87.5 | 90.9 | 92.1 | 86 | 85.2 | 86.9 |
MN | 115 | 116 | 93 | 79.5 | 78.7 | 90.1 | 87.6 | 89.6 | 94.3 | 93.1 | 89.9 | 90.4 | 88.1 |
MS | 122.4 | 123.3 | 106.3 | 94.2 | 93.5 | 97.5 | 92.2 | 93.3 | 97.6 | 95.7 | 90.2 | 89.1 | 89.4 |
MO | 119.4 | 120.7 | 101.4 | 88 | 90.4 | 91.4 | 88.9 | 91.8 | 95.4 | 96.4 | 89.3 | 89 | 86 |
MT | 116.3 | 115.1 | 100.2 | 85.7 | 91.7 | 96 | 87 | 86.4 | 91.9 | 97.5 | 83.8 | 80.6 | 74.4 |
NE | 117 | 119.3 | 93.5 | 83.5 | 88.2 | 87.8 | 85 | 93 | 95.6 | 92.4 | 87.5 | 86.2 | 87.1 |
NV | 120.4 | 121.8 | 95.8 | 85.9 | 86.1 | 86.6 | 86.7 | 90.2 | 92.1 | 92.5 | 89.1 | 84.5 | 88 |
NH | 110.6 | 109.5 | 91 | 77.4 | 76.2 | 83.4 | 81.2 | 79.3 | 82.7 | 82.6 | 83.7 | 86.7 | 87.5 |
NJ | 111.6 | 111.8 | 91.7 | 79.6 | 80.9 | 86.7 | 85.2 | 87.5 | 90.3 | 90.6 | 90.1 | 89.7 | 91.3 |
NM | 111.5 | 115 | 100.1 | 87.1 | 87 | 92.3 | 83.5 | 87.4 | 86.9 | 89.1 | 84.9 | 81.5 | 87.2 |
NY | 112.2 | 112.4 | 94.5 | 81.5 | 82.5 | 88.4 | 88.9 | 89.5 | 92 | 92.5 | 91.9 | 91.8 | 93.8 |
NC | 119.7 | 121.3 | 99.4 | 88.7 | 91.4 | 92.9 | 91.4 | 93.3 | 95.4 | 96.7 | 93.1 | 90.4 | 90.6 |
ND | 115.6 | 116.9 | 100.6 | 79.7 | 85.4 | 86.9 | 88.3 | 85.5 | 87.4 | 89.9 | 85.4 | 77.9 | 79.6 |
OH | 114.9 | 116.6 | 96.8 | 82.5 | 85.7 | 89.3 | 86.1 | 87.9 | 93.3 | 94.6 | 88.9 | 87.3 | 89.4 |
OK | 117.6 | 118.9 | 103.3 | 90.6 | 90.5 | 90 | 89.6 | 90.7 | 95.5 | 94.3 | 86.1 | 86.5 | 88.9 |
OR | 109.3 | 107.3 | 88.6 | 77.3 | 76.5 | 78.7 | 78.3 | 81.7 | 83.1 | 86.1 | 86 | 80.4 | 82.1 |
PA | 114.1 | 114.8 | 95.3 | 80.3 | 83.4 | 88.7 | 87.4 | 89.6 | 91.4 | 93.1 | 86.6 | 83 | 84.9 |
RI | 110.7 | 111 | 87 | 79.3 | 81.9 | 84.3 | 82.1 | 89.4 | 89.9 | 88.4 | 80.9 | 87.1 | 87.7 |
SC | 121.3 | 124.1 | 105 | 90.9 | 93.1 | 93.3 | 90.9 | 95.2 | 98 | 98.2 | 94.3 | 90.5 | 89.6 |
SD | 111.5 | 115 | 98.4 | 80.5 | 88.1 | 88.3 | 94.5 | 95 | 91.7 | 87.9 | 79.8 | 88.4 | 78.2 |
TN | 122 | 123.2 | 103.1 | 92.6 | 93 | 95.3 | 90.1 | 94.5 | 96.3 | 96 | 90.4 | 89 | 86.4 |
TX | 120.8 | 120.6 | 103 | 87.8 | 91 | 92.9 | 91.4 | 93.6 | 96.4 | 98.5 | 92.7 | 91.5 | 92.9 |
UT | 122 | 123.2 | 102.3 | 88.5 | 94.4 | 94 | 87.5 | 89.1 | 95.7 | 96.5 | 89.1 | 90 | 90.5 |
VT | 99.6 | 95.1 | 83.3 | 70 | 75 | 76.6 | 76.6 | 79.6 | 75.3 | 77.7 | 75.6 | 80.2 | 84.9 |
VA | 118.5 | 118.8 | 102.5 | 86.5 | 89.6 | 91.4 | 91.1 | 90 | 94.1 | 93.6 | 92.2 | 88.7 | 90.8 |
WA | 109.9 | 107.4 | 89.3 | 80.8 | 83.1 | 83.9 | 82.3 | 84.2 | 85.2 | 86 | 84.7 | 80.4 | 87.8 |
WV | 108.6 | 111.6 | 99.4 | 85.4 | 87.1 | 88.6 | 84.3 | 86 | 91.1 | 92.9 | 83.9 | 75.1 | 70.5 |
WI | 111.3 | 112.3 | 88.3 | 78.9 | 80.7 | 85.6 | 84.6 | 83.7 | 88.6 | 90.2 | 87.5 | 85.9 | 87.3 |
WY | 116.3 | 124.2 | 103.3 | 90.6 | 89.4 | 87.8 | 91.8 | 88.6 | 100.3 | 94.2 | 92.5 | 78 | 88.5 |
Nine percent said someone they’d vote for someone else and 5 percent don’t know.
Morning Consult interviewed 8,732 registered voters from March 11-15, including 3,372 Republican and Republican-leaning independents.