Poll: Paul Ryan Is No General Election Savior for Republicans

Our polling shows Ryan losing a general election matchup. (Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult)

The chaotic events of a contested convention this summer could leave House Speaker Paul Ryan as the Republican nominee for president, but he would still have an uphill climb to winning the general election, according to a new Morning Consult survey.

The Wisconsin Republican, who will preside over the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, has deflected questions about being drafted as the nominee in the event that no candidate is able to attain the 1,237 delegates needed to lock up the nomination.

The new poll, taken March 18 through March 21, shows Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton taking 43 percent of the general election vote, while Ryan would get 35 percent if he were the GOP nominee. Almost one-fourth of voters (22 percent) said they were undecided in a head-to-head match between Clinton and Ryan.

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Meanwhile, liberal firebrand Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) also leads Ryan 49 percent to 39 percent, according to the national poll of 2,001 registered voters. About one-fourth of voters (23 percent) were undecided in that scenario.

 No
AL26
AK22
AZ22
AR27
CA17
CO18
CT13
DE14
FL20
GA27
HI11
ID29
IL19
IN22
IA20
KS25
KY25
LA23
ME16
MD15
MA11
MI21
MN17
MS30
MO24
MT24
NE16
NV22
NH17
NJ14
NM20
NY13
NC22
ND24
OH21
OK28
OR21
PA20
RI15
SC23
SD28
TN25
TX23
UT16
VT16
VA19
WA17
WV28
WI19
WY22

Sanders’ advantage over Clinton against the Ryan appears to be born out of his strong support among independent voters: The Vermont senator wins 44 percent of the independent vote in a head-to-head matchup with Ryan, while Clinton wins only 32 percent.

Ryan is among the more visible faces of the Republican Party, having run alongside Mitt Romney on the 2012 GOP ticket and last year elected to one of the most powerful positions on Capitol Hill. But he is still a bit of a mystery to many voters compared to the candidates currently in the presidential field. Fourteen percent of voters say they have never heard of Ryan. Only Ohio Gov. John Kasich has similar tepid name recognition, with 13 percent of voters saying they have never heard of him.

By contrast, 3 percent of voters have never heard of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Practically every voter has heard of GOP front-runner Donald Trump. (The “don’t know” answers are less than 1 percent.)

Only 2 percent of voters have never heard of Sanders, and 1 percent have never heard of Clinton.

Looking at the other GOP contenders, it’s Kasich who performs best in head-to-head matchups with the Democrats. The poll shows Clinton beating him by just 2 points, with one out of five voters undecided. She beats Cruz and Trump by 8 and 7 points, respectively.

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The margins are even bigger for Democrats if Sanders is the nominee: The poll shows him beating Kasich by 14 points, Trump by 16 points and Cruz by 18 points.

period_endcompanyApproveDissaprove
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2019-03-06 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.539056477810860.24591796423956
2019-03-07 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.543418219644970.24466236609756
2019-03-08 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.544647880908190.24308092297793
2019-03-09 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.542811933419330.24754453699827
2019-03-10 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.549394753485620.24311441086233
2019-03-11 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.550208150097390.24283082748942
2019-03-12 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.549148526942230.24526063558949
2019-03-13 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.55055221255990.24413254904877
2019-03-14 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.550698955673670.24560444346436
2019-03-15 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.550102314694390.2500146487569
2019-03-16 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.550319711466570.25522225574922
2019-03-17 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.552749188837390.2534523850713
2019-03-18 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.55639955738580.2510653608916
2019-03-19 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.55330074337040.25624426538204
2019-03-20 00:00:00Brian Kemp0.551658221200380.25877464643274
2019-03-21 00:00:00Brian Kemp