Poll: Clinton Leads Trump in Race for White House

A Clinton supporter waits in line at a campaign event in Alexandria, Va. (Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult)

By Cameron Easley

May 11, 2016 at 5:30 am ET

As presumptive nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continue their march toward the July conventions, a new Morning Consult poll finds the former secretary of State and first lady leading the real estate mogul in the general election.

A national survey of more than 6,000 voters from this past weekend shows Clinton garnering 44 percent of the vote, if the November election were held today. Thirty-eight percent of respondents back the New York businessman.

ICS	"Jan-2020"	"Feb-2020"	"Mar-2020"	"Apri-2020"	"May-2020"	"Jun-2020"	"Jul-2020"	"Aug-2020"	"Sep-2020"	"Oct-2020	"Nov-2020"	"Dec-2020"	"Jan-2020"	"Feb-2021"	"Mar-2021"	"Apr-2021"	"May-2021"	"Jun-2021"	"Jul-2021"	"Aug-2021"	"Sep-2021"	"Oct-2021"
AL	125.4	125	128	111.6	97.3	99.2	98.3	98.7	103	104.5	93	92.4	90	93.8	94.7	98.7	99.3	97.9	93.5	89.9	86.5	81.7
AK	116.4	118.5	112.3	105.4	79.8	81.3	83.9	85.5	81.2	91.6	87	85.8	87.3	91.2	102.7	94.8	95.8	91.4	99	82.7	92.4	84.5
AZ	116.4	118.7	118.6	100.3	86.9	89.7	87.1	91.6	98	98.5	92	89.8	89.1	92.6	97.2	101.6	99.1	97.8	98	90	90.9	88.7
AR	118	117.1	118.2	100.8	89.9	92.2	91.4	91.8	95.2	97.4	91.2	85.9	86	85.1	92.2	95.8	91.6	88.4	88.6	84.4	82.1	82.6
CA	110.8	110.8	111.7	93.5	80.4	82.2	83.8	86	89.6	91.7	90	88.4	91.6	97.5	104.1	107.1	107.4	106.8	103.6	100.3	99.7	100.2
CO	108.4	110.7	112.3	93.4	78.6	82.4	83.5	85.4	90.2	90.6	87	86.2	88.7	90.9	99.2	100.4	101.6	100.4	100.6	95.1	96.8	93.6
CT	107.3	107.2	109.6	91.6	75.4	78.7	84.4	87.5	89.9	89.3	87.8	83.7	88.9	92.1	95.9	101.4	102.1	103.4	99.1	92.4	92.3	92.2
DE	115.9	115.4	115.9	97.6	82.2	86.4	89.3	91.1	91.2	96.5	91.2	87.9	93.2	96.1	99.2	103.2	101.3	102.2	100.5	86	92.8	89.6
FL	119.3	119.6	118.8	101	86.8	91.5	89.2	91.7	95.2	97	93.8	91.3	92.3	95.8	100.6	104.2	103.7	103.8	101.1	97.4	96.1	94.4
GA	123.5	124.2	126.1	108.9	94.9	95.6	95.8	99.1	101.9	104.6	99.4	94.3	94.4	95.2	102.5	105.1	102.9	103.1	100.4	95.7	96	94.9
HI	104.6	106.1	106.5	85	72.8	77.3	73.4	70.7	72.3	74.7	78.6	83.9	85	89.1	90.3	101	102	103	98.6	92.1	91	89.1
ID	118.4	119.4	124.5	106	88.1	95.3	94.9	94.4	98.6	96.8	91.2	88.7	87.1	90.5	86	93.2	89.7	88	88.4	81.7	78.4	81.3
IL	112	111.2	112.1	93.8	79.3	82.7	86	85.1	89.3	89.7	88.5	87.9	92	94.2	101.8	103.6	103.6	104	100	95.7	94.7	93.7
IN	118	119.7	120.1	102.4	85.9	89.5	88.3	91.9	94.2	94.2	86.5	86.6	85.8	88.4	96.2	94.6	97	95.8	92.1	89.3	87.4	85.1
IA	108.3	109.8	110.6	91.6	80.7	82.3	83.7	86.5	86.2	88.7	83.5	83	87	91.9	97.5	98.4	97.2	95.6	92.7	88.3	84.7	83
KS	116.1	115.7	113.5	93.8	81.3	81.9	86.9	88.2	90.5	94.9	85.5	85.9	85.3	85.4	91.4	94.9	95.6	95.6	89	85.8	85.6	83.9
KY	114.7	114.6	116.2	102	84.2	88.5	88.7	89.2	92.3	92.4	85.9	81.1	82.4	83.8	89.7	90.6	91.2	91.1	87.1	81.9	80.4	78.2
LA	119	121.8	125	110.6	93.1	97.3	92.9	95	100.1	97.4	92.8	89.7	86.1	89.1	94	94.5	98.5	97.6	93.7	89.7	87.3	88.8
ME	108.2	109.7	111.1	87.7	75.3	76.5	79.2	78.9	83.6	83.2	81.4	78.1	85.9	85.4	93.7	93.1	95.7	97.7	88.4	86.3	82.4	81
MD	113.2	112.8	113.8	94.6	79.2	83.4	84.9	88.4	90.8	91.9	90	90.4	92.8	96.9	103	107	104.4	107.1	101.3	101.2	98	97.4
MA	108.3	107.7	108	90.8	75.6	77.5	83.1	83.3	85.5	83.6	86.5	87.9	91.6	95.7	100.9	103.1	101.8	102.9	100.1	95.3	94.3	92.6
MI	111.7	113.4	114.6	95.9	80	81.1	85.1	87.5	90.9	91.9	86	85.2	86.9	91	97.6	98.6	98.2	98.9	96.3	92	89.8	87.4
MN	114.9	115.4	115.9	93.8	79.5	79.1	87.6	89.6	94.3	92.9	89.9	90.4	88.1	91.1	96.3	102	96.8	96.8	94.8	90.1	89	88.3
MS	121.6	122.4	123.6	107.1	93.8	93.5	92.7	93.3	97.6	96.1	90.2	89.1	89.4	91	95.4	98.9	92.7	94.5	92.8	85	85.4	81.6
MO	119	119.5	121	102.7	87.8	90.3	89.3	91.8	95.4	95.6	89.3	89	86	89.9	94.4	97.1	98.2	94.2	90.5	87.3	86.4	83.3
MT	119.4	117	115.7	101.8	84.6	92.8	86.6	86.4	91.9	97.9	83.8	80.6	74.4	77.8	90.4	85.8	85.8	82.5	85.3	76.3	78.9	78.7
NE	117.9	117.3	119.6	94.6	83.6	87.3	85.3	93	95.6	92.4	87.5	86.2	87.1	86.9	89.4	88.4	96.1	95.7	93.9	87.8	84.6	85.7
NV	121.8	119.9	121.3	97.5	85.4	85.9	87.6	90.2	92.1	91.3	89.1	84.5	88	89	95.2	99.3	96.2	96.6	93.7	88.3	93.1	93.6
NH	109.3	110.7	110.8	92.3	76.8	77.7	82.3	79.3	82.7	83.3	83.7	86.7	87.5	89.4	93.7	99.9	101.8	103.2	96.4	95.5	91.8	88.3
NJ	111.7	111.7	112.2	92.6	79.8	80.8	85.2	87.5	90.3	90.8	90.1	89.7	91.3	95.3	101.3	104.2	104.2	106.5	106.5	102	98.7	97.6
NM	112.9	111.3	114.6	101.5	85.8	87.2	83.5	87.4	86.9	87	84.9	81.5	87.2	89.9	98.8	97.1	107.5	98.5	97.8	92.8	87.4	90.8
NY	112.3	112.3	112.7	95.6	81.4	82.5	89.2	89.5	92	93	91.9	91.8	93.8	97.9	103.5	106.9	106.9	109.1	105.2	100.2	99.1	97.7
NC	118.5	119.6	121.2	100.4	88.8	91.4	91.5	93.3	95.4	97.6	93.1	90.4	90.6	94.2	100	101.1	101.2	99.6	97.3	91.6	89.9	88
ND	118.8	116.2	117.1	103.5	79.8	84.3	86.5	85.5	87.4	95.5	85.4	77.9	79.6	78.8	92.2	91.4	90.5	88.5	88	81.3	84.5	83.8
OH	114.9	115	116.5	98	82.1	85.8	86.2	87.9	93.3	94.5	88.9	87.3	89.4	90.4	96.1	98.3	97.1	97.7	96.1	92.4	89.1	87.4
OK	115.5	118.1	119.2	103.8	91.1	90.8	89.8	90.7	95.5	94	86.1	86.5	88.9	88.3	98.1	99.6	95.4	98.6	92.7	87	87.7	86.2
OR	107	109.3	107.9	89.6	77	76.7	78.3	81.7	83.1	85.2	86	80.4	82.1	86.5	94.8	95.5	95.2	94.8	94.2	90.4	87.6	85.9
PA	112.4	113.9	115.1	96.3	80.3	83.3	87.5	89.6	91.4	93.2	86.6	83	84.9	88.4	93.2	97.6	96.6	95.3	92.6	87.7	86.8	84.8
RI	109.7	110.5	109.9	88.8	79	80.6	82.5	89.4	89.9	89.7	80.9	87.1	87.7	92.8	93.6	105.2	101.6	96.7	99.9	93.1	88.3	87.7
SC	120.6	121.7	123.7	106.1	90.4	92.9	90.8	95.2	98	98.6	94.3	90.5	89.6	90.2	97	99.9	102.1	99.9	95.4	91.8	92	87.8
SD	109.5	111.8	114.7	98.9	81.8	86.1	94.4	95	91.7	86.4	79.8	88.4	78.2	83.8	89.1	90.9	85.2	88.2	85.6	78.9	84.8	76.2
TN	121.2	122.3	123.3	104.1	92	92.7	90.2	94.5	96.3	97.3	90.4	89	86.4	88.4	94	97.9	96.6	95.9	93.9	90	84.2	84.8
TX	119.7	120.8	120.7	104.3	87.5	90.8	91.2	93.6	96.4	99.3	92.7	91.5	92.9	95	101.5	104.6	102.6	100.9	98.8	96.7	94.2	93.6
UT	123.1	122.5	123	103.2	89	93.8	88	89.1	95.7	95.5	89.1	90	90.5	91.6	103.3	100.6	93.9	92.8	92.6	90	89.4	90.2
VT	99.3	99.9	95.7	84	69.6	74.9	75.1	79.6	75.3	76.7	75.6	80.2	84.9	86.3	95.6	103.2	101.7	102.6	99.3	99.7	96.9	90.4
VA	117.1	118.3	118.8	103.4	86.2	89.8	91	90	94.1	94.4	92.2	88.7	90.8	94.9	99.8	99.6	100.5	101.6	98.8	95.5	92.1	91.8
WA	110.1	109.7	107.6	90.7	79.9	83.5	82.5	84.2	85.2	86.4	84.7	80.4	87.8	92.1	97.2	99.4	101.1	100.3	99	93.1	91.3	88.1
WV	109.6	108.6	111.8	99.5	85.8	87.1	83.7	86	91.1	90.9	83.9	75.1	70.5	73.9	81.1	77.8	81.5	83.9	82.8	79	73.1	70.5
WI	110.1	111.8	112.8	89.2	78.6	80.6	85.1	83.7	88.6	90	87.5	85.9	87.3	89	97.5	99.3	97.9	98	99	93.3	91.2	89.2
WY	122.2	117.2	124	103.6	91.1	91.5	91.6	88.6	100.3	93.3	92.5	78	88.5	88.7	95	93.9	86.4	99.4	77.7	82.3	79	72.5

Among independents, almost a third (29 percent) remain undecided in their vote. Trump holds a slight edge among independents who have made their choice, leading Clinton by 3 percentage points, 37-34.

Clinton’s main advantage against Trump is her support from minorities and women. More than half (56 percent) of the 537 Hispanics surveyed back Clinton over Trump, while just 15 percent remain undecided. The disparity is even larger among African Americans: Almost 8 in 10 black voters say they’d cast their ballot for Clinton. She also sports a 10-point lead over Trump with women, 45-35.

Meanwhile, Trump leads Clinton among white voters by 6 points, 44-38. Almost one in five white voters remain undecided.

In the highly unlikely event of Clinton’s primary challenger, Sen. Bernie Sanders, mounting an incredible comeback and clinching the Democratic nomination, our polling shows the Vermont independent faring even better against the bombastic millionaire in the fall.

Name	Approve	Don’t Know	Disapprove	Net Value
Joe Biden	44	7	49	-4
Jair Bolsonaro	36	7	58	-22
Mario Draghi	60	6	34	26
Boris Johnson	37	8	55	-18
Fumio Kishida	43	18	39	4
Emmanuel Macron	37	8	55	-19
Angela Merkel	54	6	40	15
Narendra Modi	67	6	28	39
Moon Jae-in	39	5	56	-17
Scott Morrison	44	7	49	-4
Andrés Manuel López Obrador	67	7	25	42
Pedro Sánchez	37	7	57	-20
Justin Trudeau	43	8	49	-5

Sanders pulls in more than half (51 percent) of voters’ support in our newest poll, compared with Trump’s 36 percent.

But Sanders still trails Clinton by 9 points, 49-40, in our national poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and his strategy for defeating Clinton relies on switching the support of many of the unbound super delegates at the convention, which is not likely to happen.

The Morning Consult survey polled 6,005 registered voters May 5-9, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. See the toplines and crosstabs.

Cameron Easley
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email press@morningconsult.com.

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Poll: Clinton Leads Trump in Race for White House

Poll: Clinton Leads Trump in Race for White House

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