Trump Nearly Tied With Clinton in New Survey

Rob Kunzig/Morning Consult

Donald Trump is almost tied with Hillary Clinton as voters’ first choice to be the next president, a new Morning Consult poll found.

According to the national survey, the presumptive Democratic nominee tops Trump, 41 percent to 40 percent, but her lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. It’s the likely Republican nominee’s best showing in our head-to-head matchup with the former secretary of State since the general-election phase of the campaign began.

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Morning Consult polled voters from June 30 through the July Fourth holiday, after a secret meeting between President Bill Clinton and Attorney General Loretta Lynch reignited the debate over her use of a private email server while serving in the Obama administration. On Tuesday, Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey announced he would not recommend criminal charges against her.

In the newest survey, Clinton was down four points from the weekend before, while Trump saw just a one-point boost. Among independents in the two-way matchup, Trump was favored slightly to Clinton, 33 percent to 32 percent, with 35 percent of respondents undecided.

In a three-way matchup, including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a handful of voter — 11 percent – said they would buck both parties and back the former New Mexico governor. Clinton maintains her slim 1-point margin over Trump in that scenario. Independents were split between the leading party candidates, 26 percent for Clinton and 28 percent for Trump. Another 19 percent of them said if the election were held today, they would vote for Johnson.

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With the heightened prevalence of straight-ticket voting, an increase in turnout among the Democratic base in presidential-election years has proven a boon for that party, and voters’ responses from our new poll reinforced that notion.

A little more than four in 10 voters (43 percent) said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate than a Republican candidate. One-fifth of respondents said they either did not know or had no opinion. Slightly more independents said they support the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate, but 44 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

The national poll was conducted June 30-July 4 among a national sample of 2,001 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. See toplines and crosstabs.

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