Gingrich, Warren Would Drive Most Enthusiasm as VP Picks, Poll Shows

As presumptive presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump move closer to selecting their vice presidential candidates, a new Morning Consult poll shows voters are largely unmoved by the supposed contenders.

The national survey of more than 2,001 registered voters taken over the weekend shows just two potential picks generating at least some enthusiasm among Democrats and Republicans — former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

(See toplines and crosstabs.)

Among Republican voters, 21 percent of respondents said Gingrich would make them more likely to back Trump. On the other side of the aisle, the same percentage of  Democratic voters (21 percent) said Warren would help convince them to back Clinton.

But by and large, none of the potential candidates appears to play a large factor in motivating voters to get to the polls. Of all the vice presidential contenders, almost half of voters said the prospective picks would have no impact either way on their vote.

(Related: New poll shows voters trust Paul Ryan most with classified information.)

In terms of voter support, the weakest contenders on the Republican side include Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. Those officials would only make 11 percent, 12 percent, and 12 percent of respondents, respectively, more likely to back Trump in November.

How VP picks would affect voters' support for presidential candidate.More likely to support Less likely to supportNo impact either wayDon't know / No opinion
Chris Christie17%21%43%19%
Newt Gingrich21%17%42%20%
Mary Fallin11%13%49%28%
Mike Pence12%12%47%28%
Jeff Sessions12%12%48%28%

Among Democrats, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, who will hit the trail with Clinton this week, provoked the most tepid response among Democrats. Just 11 percent of voters said his inclusion on the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Clinton. Voters expressed similar levels of support for Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro (13 percent), Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (12 percent), Labor Secretary Tom Perez (12 percent), and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (13 percent).

How VP picks would affect voters' support for presidential candidate.More likely to support Less likely to supportNo impact either wayDon't know / No opinion
Elizabeth Warren21%19%39%21%
Cory Booker13%14%47%26%
Sherrod Brown12%13%48%26%
Tom Perez12%13%49%26%
Julian Castro13%13%48%26%
Tim Kaine11%13%49%27%

As for the state of the presidential race, the newest Morning Consult survey again shows a much tighter race as the general election phase of the campaigns cranks into gear.

(See toplines and crosstabs.)

In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton maintained her single point lead over Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, with 18 percent of voters still undecided. Trump holds an advantage among independents with 38 percent, compared with Clinton’s 31 percent. Almost one-third of independents (32 percent) remain undecided.

Head to headJuly 8-10June 30-July 4June 24-27June 15-20
Hillary Clinton42%41%44%42%
Donald Trump41%40%39%40%
Don't Know/No Opinion18%19%18%17%

When the presidential field is expanded to include Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor, Clinton leads Trump by 2 points, 39 percent to 37 percent. The poll also shows Gary Johnson gaining support; he is up to 12 percent among voters.

General-Election MatchupJuly 8-10June 30-July 4June 24-27June 15-20
Hillary Clinton39%38%39%38%
Donald Trump37%37%36%38%
Gary Johnson12%11%11%10%
Don't Know/No Opinion13%15%13%14%

The national Morning Consult survey polled 2,001 voters from July 8-10 for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 

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