Poll: Trump Remains Within Striking Distance of Clinton as Security Issues Rise

Donald Trump remains within striking distance of Hillary Clinton as the Republican National Convention kicks off in Cleveland.

A national Morning Consult survey taken over the past weekend shows the bellicose businessman trailing the former Secretary of State in a head-to-head matchup, 41 percent to 39 percent. In the previous survey, Trump was just one percentage point behind Clinton. One-fifth of voters remain undecided.

Head to headJuly 14-16July 8-10June 30-July 4June 24-27
Hillary Clinton41%42%41%44%
Donald Trump39%41%40%39%
Don't Know/No Opinion20%18%19%18%

The presumptive Republican nominee leads his Democratic counterpart among independents by 11 points, 38 percent to 27 percent. Clinton boasts a large advantage among young voters; 47 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 say they back her, compared with 28 percent who support Trump.

Trump was the top choice for 45 percent of whites, while fewer than one-fourth (24 percent) of Hispanics and just 7 percent of African Americans said they would vote for him.

In a three-way contest including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, Clinton leads Trump by 3 points, 38 percent to 35 percent. Johnson, the former New Mexico governor, was the first choice for 11 percent of respondents. Fifteen percent of voters remain undecided.

General-Election MatchupJuly 16-18July 8-10June 30-July 4June 24-27
Hillary Clinton38%39%38%39%
Donald Trump35%37%37%36%
Gary Johnson11%12%11%11%
Don't Know/No Opinion15%13%15%13%

National security is creeping back up in voters’ minds after another terrorist attack in France – this time in Nice – left dozens dead and injured. Almost three out of 10 voters (29 percent) said security issues were at the top of their minds, up 3 percentage points from the previous week. More than four out of 10 Republicans (42 percent) said security was their top issue, compared with just 21 percent of Democrats and 26 percent of independents.

The national Morning Consult survey polled 2,002 voters from July 14-16 for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. See the toplines and crosstabs.


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