Poll: No Consensus on Best Picture as Most Haven’t Seen Nominated Films

Many Americans don’t have a favorite to win the Academy Award for best picture, because many of them haven’t seen even one of the nominated films.

According to a recent Morning Consult, 47 percent chose “don’t know/no opinion” when asked which movie they want to see take home the top prize on Oscar night, Feb. 26.

The most popular nominees among poll participants were “Hidden Figures” and “Arrival,” yet less than 20 percent of respondents have seen either film. When asked about each movie separately, 78 percent said they hadn’t seen either one. “Hidden Figures” got a bit of a boost from younger viewers — 26 percent adults under 30 said they had seen the top earner at the box office among this year’s best picture contenders.

Seventy-nine percent of adults said they had not seen “La La Land” or “Hacksaw Ridge.” Twenty-six percent of young adults said they’d seen “La La Land,” the highest percentage across all age groups for that film.

Similar trends emerged among the other movies in the running for best film of the year: 82 percent haven’t seen “Fences,” and 83 percent haven’t seen “Moonlight,” “Manchester by the Sea” or “Hell or High Water.” Eighty-four percent said they haven’t seen “Lion.”

Respondents were not polled on why they have or have not seen a particular movie, but related data showed Oscar buzz isn’t a driving force in boosting viewership. 

The poll was conducted among a national sample of 2,000 adults on Feb. 9 and Feb. 10. Crosstabs and toplines are here and here.