Updated Data 01/22/2020
Political Intelligence
The 2020 U.S. Election

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the White House is shaping up.

 

To receive the early look at this report each week, sign up here.

Key Takeaways

Our latest results feature 29,721 surveys with registered voters, including 12,402 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted from Jan. 15-19, 2020. 

Bloomberg Continues His Rise
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg rises to 10% nationally, leading former Mayor Pete Buttigieg by 2 points and trailing Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) by 5 points. Although he was not on the January debate stage, his net favorability has risen to +31, an increase of 8 points, following the debate last week.

Sanders’ Favorability Takes a Dive Amid Warren Clash
Democratic primary voters’ perception of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) took a dive amid his clash with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) over whether he said a woman cannot win the presidency. His net favorability fell 6 points since before his clash with Warren, though there was no movement in his overall first-choice support. (Read more here.)

Who’s Leading the Democratic Primary

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and 14 other demographics.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
29%
2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
24%
3
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
15%
4
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Business Person
10%
5
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
8%
6
Andrew Yang Business Person
4%
7
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
3%
Tom Steyer Business Person
3%
9
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
2%
10
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
12
Deval Patrick Former Governor
0%
Someone else
1%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Democratic Primary Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Democratic Primary Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
28%
Elizabeth Warren
21%
Michael Bloomberg
17%
Sanders Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
30%
Joe Biden
27%
Andrew Yang
10%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
37%
Joe Biden
20%
Pete Buttigieg
11%
Bloomberg Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Bloomberg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
35%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Buttigieg Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
20%
Joe Biden
19%
Michael Bloomberg/Bernie Sanders
13%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability Among Democratic Primary Voters

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them. Candidates are ordered by name recognition, and in the case of a tie, alphabetically by last name.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Joe Biden Former Vice President
72% 6% 1% 21%
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
73% 6% 1% 20%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
64% 11% 6% 20%
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Business Person
54% 18% 6% 22%
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
51% 17% 16% 17%
Andrew Yang Business Person
49% 21% 17% 13%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
39% 22% 24% 15%
Tom Steyer Business Person
39% 22% 24% 15%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
18% 38% 30% 14%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
21% 22% 30% 27%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
22% 33% 33% 12%
Deval Patrick Former Governor
17% 26% 46% 12%
Hypothetical General-Election Matchups

All registered voters were asked who they would vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today, each of the following or President Donald Trump.

Democrat
Undecided
Donald Trump
Joe Biden Former Vice President
46% 13% 41%
Donald Trump
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
45% 13% 42%
Donald Trump
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
44% 14% 42%
Donald Trump
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Business Person
43% 15% 42%
Donald Trump
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
41% 17% 42%
Donald Trump
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the president, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on January 22, 2020.

Our latest results feature 29,721 surveys with registered voters, including 12,402 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted January 15-19, 2020. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Our Democratic primary results are reported using 12,402 interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The interviews were collected Jan. 15 through Jan. 19, 2020, and have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 530 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. The “Super Tuesday Voters” demographic consists of 4,073 voters in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

The “Hypothetical General-Election Matchups” section displays responses among all registered voters — not just those who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state — and those matchups have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.

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