Updated Data 02/19/2020
Political Intelligence
The 2020 U.S. Election

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the White House is shaping up.

The Latest Insights

Our latest results are based on 36,563 surveys with registered voters, including 15,974 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted Feb. 12-17, 2020.

Bloomberg Makes Gains With Black Voters Amid ‘Stop-and-Frisk’ Controversy
As he faces attacks on his past comments about policing and his support for a law enforcement policy that has been criticized as racist, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is entering his first Democratic presidential debate with increased support from black Democratic primary voters. (Read more here.)

Ahead of Nevada, Front-Running Sanders Grows Support Among Hispanic Voters
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is the front-runner heading into Nevada’s Feb. 22 caucuses, with 28 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide backing him versus 20 percent who are supporting Bloomberg and 19 percent who are opting for former Vice President Joe Biden. And as the nomination race moves toward more diverse terrain, he also finds himself on the upswing with Hispanic voters. (Read more here.)

Undecided Voters Leaning Toward Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg
Just 6 percent of Democratic primary voters say they are undecided on who they would support in their state’s primary or caucus. When forced to choose a candidate to support, undecided voters evenly split between Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg. (Read more here.)

Who’s Leading the Democratic Primary

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and 14 other demographics.

1
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
28%
2
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Businessperson
20%
3
Joe Biden Former Vice President
19%
4
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
12%
5
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
10%
6
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
6%
7
Tom Steyer Businessperson
3%
8
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
2%
Someone else
1%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Democratic Primary Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Democratic Primary Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Sanders Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
29%
Joe Biden
24%
Michael Bloomberg
15%
Bloomberg Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Bloomberg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
28%
Pete Buttigieg/Bernie Sanders
20%
Amy Klobuchar/Elizabeth Warren
10%
Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
33%
Michael Bloomberg
24%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Buttigieg Supporters
Michael Bloomberg
Former Mayor & Businessperson
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Michael Bloomberg
22%
Amy Klobuchar
22%
Bernie Sanders
20%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
38%
Amy Klobuchar
16%
Joe Biden/Pete Buttigieg
14%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability Among Democratic Primary Voters

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them. Candidates are ordered by name recognition, and in the case of a tie, alphabetically by last name.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Joe Biden Former Vice President
66% 6% 1% 27%
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
74% 5% 1% 21%
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Businessperson
61% 12% 3% 25%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
61% 10% 4% 25%
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
60% 13% 9% 19%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
49% 19% 15% 17%
Tom Steyer Businessperson
37% 24% 21% 19%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
22% 23% 26% 29%
Hypothetical General-Election Matchups

All registered voters were asked whom they would vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today, each of the following or President Trump.

Democrat
Undecided
Donald Trump
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Businessperson
46% 12% 42%
Donald Trump
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
46% 12% 42%
Donald Trump
Joe Biden Former Vice President
45% 12% 43%
Donald Trump
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
44% 15% 42%
Donald Trump
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
44% 14% 42%
Donald Trump
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the president, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on February 19, 2020.

Our latest results are based on 36,563 surveys with registered voters, including 15,974 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted Feb. 12-17, 2020. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Our Democratic primary results are reported using interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. Those who say they don’t know or have no opinion are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The responses among all Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The “Super Tuesday Voters” demographic consists of 5,318 voters in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and also has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

The “Hypothetical General-Election Matchups” section displays responses among all registered voters — not just those who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state — and those matchups also have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.

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