Morning Consult Economic Intelligence Global Consumer Confidence Methodology

Sampling Method

Morning Consult Economic Intelligence: Global Consumer Confidence interviews more than 11,000 adults per day across twelve countries. In the United States,  more than 6,000 daily interviews are conducted. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience in each country.

Countries Surveyed

Morning Consult conducts daily consumer confidence surveys in the following countries. The GDP of these twelve countries accounts for 69% of total global output. 

Americas
-United States
-Canada
-Mexico
-Brazil 

Europe
-United Kingdom
-Germany
-France

Asia
-China
-India
-Russia
-Japan

Australia
-Australia

Survey Open and Closing Times

The interview collection period for all 12 countries begins at 4 a.m. ET and closes at 3 a.m. ET the following day. The date of publication reflects the date when the survey closes.

Survey Questions

Survey respondents answer the following five questions:

1) Personal Finances – Current Conditions: We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

2) Personal Finances – 12-Month Expectations: Now looking ahead — do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

3) Business Conditions – 12-Month Expectations: Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole — do you think that during the next twelve months we’ll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

4) Business Conditions – 5-Year Expectations: Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely — that in the country as a whole we’ll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

5) Current Buying Conditions: Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes — such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

Data Processing: 

Daily responses are weighted to approximate a representative sample of adults based on a given country’s census data.  The weighting methodology considers a range of demographic characteristics, including age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Index Calculations:

Morning Consult transforms the responses to the five questions to produce three consumer confidence indices for each country:

Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) captures consumers’ views regarding current and future personal financial conditions and business conditions in the country as a whole.

Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) measures consumers’ expectations of their future personal financial conditions and business conditions in the country as a whole.

Index of Current Conditions (ICC) reflects consumers’ views of their current personal financial conditions and of current buying conditions for large household goods.

All three indices rely on the net scores of the five individual questions. For a given question, the net score equals the percentage of weighted positive values minus the percentage of weighted negative values plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five net scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the net scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the net scores of questions 1 and 5.

The index values are 7-day exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) such that the most recent day receives the highest weight. Morning Consult rounds the EWMAs to two decimal places to produce the final value included in the CSV.

Question Calculations:

Morning Consult also reports the percentages of respondents who provided positive, negative and neutral responses to the five questions. The responses are 7-day exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) such that the most recent day receives the highest weight. Morning Consult rounds the EWMAs to two decimal places to produce the final value included in the CSV.

Since the response percentages are 7-day exponentially weighted moving averages, it is not possible or appropriate to use them to calculate the three consumer confidence indices.

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