Morning Consult Releases New State-Level 2020 U.S. Election Data Based on Daily Interviews with 4,000+ Likely Voters

Biden Support Surges in Sunbelt States Recently Affected by COVID-19

Morning Consult
By Press
July 28, 2020 at 10:54 am ET
  • Biden Holds 8-Point Lead Over Trump Nationally

  • Democrats Lead Senate Races in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina

WASHINGTON – JULY 28, 2020 – With less than 100 days until Election Day, new Morning Consult data intelligence shows former Vice President Joe Biden is gaining with likely voters nationally and in key battleground states. As of Sunday, July 26, 2020, Biden holds a national 8-point lead over President Donald Trump and new state-level polling shows a surge in support for Biden in Sunbelt states recently impacted by COVID-19. 

Narrowing in on control for the Senate, additional state-level Morning Consult data shows Democrats leading races in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina.

This data is part of Morning Consult Political Intelligence (MCPI), the global data intelligence company’s proprietary survey research platform featuring the most robust data set available on the 2020 U.S. election. Surveying more than 4,000 likely voters across the country every day, MCPI provides a granular look at how key elections are playing out at the national, state and congressional levels on a daily basis.

“In 2016, we delivered data on the U.S. election at a scale and speed unmatched at that time,” said Michael Ramlet, cofounder and CEO of Morning Consult. “For the 2020 election, we’re accelerating that mission even further: Morning Consult is now tracking key elections in every state daily to best reflect today’s ever-evolving, dynamic political landscape.”

The latest Political Intelligence data released today highlights insights based on surveys conducted with more than 12,000 likely voters nationally and between 600-3,700 voters in key states. The full national and state-level methodology, samples sizes and margins of error are available below.

Key Highlights:

Biden Holds a Commanding National Lead: Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 8 points nationally among likely voters. Mirroring the overall trend, Independents have shifted toward Biden in recent weeks, as he now leads this group by 8 points.

Extensive New Battleground Polling Shows Biden Gaining Ground: The president’s lead has evaporated in certain must-win states like Florida and Texas, and he doesn’t hold a lead outside the margin of error in any of the 12 states included in this release. Our data intelligence also reveals Biden has an outright advantage in four states that Trump won in 2016: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    • Arizona: Biden: 49%, Trump: 42%
    • Colorado: Biden: 52%, Trump: 39% 
    • Florida: Biden: 49%, Trump: 46%  
    • Georgia: Biden: 47%, Trump: 46%
    • Michigan: Biden: 52%, Trump: 42%
    • Minnesota: Biden: 47% Trump: 44% 
    • North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 47%
    • Ohio: Biden 45%, Trump 48%
    • Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
    • Texas: Biden: 47%, Trump 45%
    • Virginia: Biden 52%, Trump 41%
    • Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 43%

Democrats Lead Senate Races in Ariz., Colo., Mich., and N.C.: Our data on a slate of key races that will help decide control of the Senate shows Democrats have the upper hand, leading their Republican opponents in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina, with few candidates on either side of the aisle running ahead of the ticket-topping presidential contest. Just two candidates, Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and ex-astronaut Mark Kelly of Arizona (D), have more committed likely voters than their party’s respective standard-bearers at this point in the race.

    • Arizona Special Election: Kelly 52%, McSally: 36% 
    • Colorado: Hickenlooper 48%, Gardner: 42% 
    • Georgia: Ossoff 42%, Purdue 45% 
    • Michigan: Peters 49%, James 35%
    • North Carolina: Cunningham 46%, Tillis: 37%

All citations of today’s release must be credited to Morning Consult and link back to: https://morningconsult.com/2020-presidential-election-tracker. For more details on our methodology, or to request specific crosstabs of Morning Consult data, contact press@morningconsult.com.

Methodology

Results reflect surveys conducted with 12,235 likely voters from July 24 to July 26. Morning Consult’s reported results reflect data among likely voters based on a 3-day moving average with a margin of error of +/- 1%. Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of 4,400 likely voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2016 presidential vote history. 

State level results reflect surveys conducted with likely voters in each state from July 17 to July 26. For results on the state level, Morning Consult weights each state separately based on age by gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density, presidential vote history and — for a subset of states — race by education.

State-Level Sample Sizes and Margins of Error

State Sample Size Margin of Error
Arizona 908 3.3
Colorado 616 4.0
Florida 3760 1.6
Georgia 1337 2.7
Michigan 1320 2.7
Minnesota 662 3.8
North Carolina 1504 2.5
Ohio 1741 2.3
Pennsylvania 2092 2.1
Texas 2685 1.9
Virginia 1156 2.9
Wisconsin 809 3.4

 

About Morning Consult

Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company delivering insights on what people think in real time. By surveying tens of thousands across the globe every day, Morning Consult is unmatched in scale and speed: It determines the true measure of what people think and how their decisions impact business, politics and the economy. Industry leaders rely on Morning Consult’s proprietary technology and analysis for real-time intelligence to transform information into a competitive advantage.

Contact

Mark McDevitt, press@morningconsult.com 

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