President Joe Biden’s governing majorities are on the line on Nov. 8, with voters set to decide whether to give the president’s Democratic Party another two years of unified control of Capitol Hill or to impose a check on the president for the second half of his term. Ahead of the decisive November contests, Morning Consult will update this page each week with survey research revealing how the electorate is feeling, what they’re hearing about their leaders and what they say is driving their vote choice.
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Share of voters who approve or disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance
- Biden gets positive marks from 42% of likely voters, while 56% disapprove.
- Behind Biden’s worst approval rating among likely voters is attrition across the political spectrum: His approval rating fell from 86% to 83% among Democrats, 39% to 36% among independents and 10% to 7% among Republicans. Just 41% of likely Democratic voters strongly approve of Biden’s job performance, matching a low point reached on Oct. 21.
Share of voters who are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections
- Republican excitement about voting has grown in recent weeks, and the party out of power now has its first genuine advantage on the metric in months.
- When asked if they will “definitely” vote this year, Republicans have a narrow, 3-point advantage in the latest survey, with Democrats gaining a bit since early October.
Net buzz – the share of voters who heard something positive over the previous week minus the share who heard something negative – about the following politicians, institutions and topics:
- The tightening in the generic ballot has not dovetailed with much of an increase of perceived negative news coverage about Biden or congressional Democrats over the past few weeks. At the same time, buzz about the economy has improved a bit, though it’s still predominantly negative.
The share of voters who said the following are “very important” when deciding whom to vote for in the 2022 elections:
- The economy is obviously the electorate’s most important issue this year, but that is followed by several issues with mixed implications. Roughly half of voters say gun violence and abortion are “very” important when considering their vote this year, two issues that could likely benefit the Democratic Party, while a similar share elevates immigration, where voters favor the GOP.
- The share of independent voters who consider crime “very important” when deciding whom to vote for in the 2022 elections has reached a tracking low of 54%, while the issue remains top of mind for 71% of Republicans.
The share of voters who say President Joe Biden is making the following a “top priority”:
- What voters see Biden prioritizing is often responsive to what is driving headlines. As issues such as Russia’s war or the pandemic faded from the front pages, voters became more likely to see Biden as focused on abortion and gun policy – which were propelled to prominence after the Supreme Court’s ruling and the mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas.
- A majority of voters (52%) see Biden making abortion a “top priority,” comfortably more than any other issue except for the economy (50%).
Congressional Democrats’ trust advantage over congressional Republicans on the following issues:
- Congressional Democrats have maintained a narrow advantage, on average, over Republicans when it comes to voter trust throughout all of Biden’s presidency. However, Republicans are more trusted by the electorate to handle the economy, which is far and away voters’ top issue for the midterms.
- Voter trust lines tend to move in tandem – if the average voter is less likely to trust Democrats to handle the economy, they’re seemingly less likely to trust them to handle other issues. The one exception in the trend data appears on gun policy, where the party in charge saw a surge of voter trust as they, with the help of some Senate Republicans, passed legislation on the issue after the Uvalde shooting.
Republicans Are Outperforming Their 2018 Margins Among Voters of Color
Midterm Turnout Looks Primed to Reach Historic Levels Again
Gauging Midterm Campaign Ad Messages’ Potency on Swing Voters
Biden’s Net Approval Rating Is Underwater in 45 States
Biden Doesn’t Loom Over This Year’s Midterms Like Trump Did 4 Years Ago
Whitmer’s Approval Ticks Up in Michigan Ahead of Midterms as Most Governors Continue to Earn Positive Reviews
West Virginians Sour on Joe Manchin After He Delivers a Big Win for Democrats
Most Voters Back Federal Marijuana Legalization That’s Stalled in Congress
The latest national results on the generic ballot and Biden’s approval rating reflect surveys conducted Oct. 28-30, 2022, among 6,974 likely voters. Morning Consult’s reported results among likely voters reflect data based on a 3-day moving average, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of roughly 4,000 registered voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2020 presidential vote history.
Our likely voter model — which went into effect on Aug. 9, 2022 — includes any registered voters who say they are at least an “8” on a 1-10 point scale, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2022 midterm elections for Congress and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November.
Morning Consult’s reported results among registered voters reflect data gathered on a weekly or biweekly basis from a nationally representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
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