This coming week is a big one for Congress’ two infrastructure packages running on parallel tracks: a $1 trillion bipartisan deal that would involve “hard” infrastructure spending (roads, bridges, public transit, etc.) and a roughly $3.5 trillion package that the Democrats plan to pass through budget reconciliation. 

What we’re watching: The final legislative text of the former has not yet been released (though Politico acquired a detailed summary) but it advanced in the Senate on Wednesday despite some final sticking points on electric vehicles and public transit; E&E News has found that progressives are clamoring to get more funding for both before it is finalized. The bill cannot see a vote until both its legislative text and the Congressional Budget Office Score are released, but lawmakers are currently in a stage of intense politicking to get at least 60 votes and ultimately pass the chamber. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has pledged to bring the package to a vote before the scheduled Aug. 9 recess.

Meanwhile, Schumer said last week that the Senate is also on track to pass a budget resolution that will allow the chamber to start work on the final reconciliation bill before the August recess. While some moderates — including, notably, Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — have expressed concern about the intended price tag of $3.5 trillion, it seems that they are signaling that they will at least vote to take up the budget resolution in order to open debate on the package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she will not bring the bipartisan bill up for a vote until that reconciliation bill has passed the Senate (where it will only need 50 votes), which has essentially bound the fates of the two efforts together. Neither is expected to see final votes until later this fall. 

On Tuesday, BP PLC will release its second-quarter earnings, following reports from Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron Corp. and ExxonMobil Corp. last week.

What we’re watching: BP’s competitors reported second-quarter profits that topped expectations last week, with Shell at $5.53 billion, Chevron at $3.3 billion and Exxon at $4.7 billion. Both Shell and Chevron announced that they would restart their share buyback programs, a sign that the oil companies are feeling more confident about the future. And while Exxon did not report buybacks, the company has maintained its dividend throughout the last year. The increase in oil prices has allowed these majors to pay off debt accrued during the uncertain days of the early coronavirus pandemic, and their overall outlooks appear rosy. 

BP’s earnings will likely reflect these conditions as well, though the oil giant already restarted buybacks last quarter. I’ll especially have my eye on what its dividend looks like when it reports earnings on Tuesday, after the company almost halved it during the pandemic and maintained that payout in the first quarter. While this year has certainly been an improvement over last for the oil majors, I will be curious about what BP in particular has to say about whether currently high oil prices bode well for the future. As it is the company with the most aggressive plans to transition away from fossil fuels among its competitors, BP’s outlook for the role of oil companies given future climate change projections is always a particularly interesting one. 

On Thursday, the World Resources Institute will host a webinar called “Just 3 Months Until COP26: How Are National Climate Plans Stacking Up?” at 9 a.m. ET. 

What we’re watching: As the webinar title observes, we are just three months until the 26th Conference of Parties in Glasgow; yesterday marked the deadline for countries to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris climate agreement. WRI is tracking those commitments so far, and this webinar will be a chance to take a look at the newest submissions in the context of the overall goal of keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. I will have my eye on how these new plans compare to those submitted five years ago, specifically on whether they reflect the increased and increasing urgency of climate change. 

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The Biden administration is continuing its work to walk back various Trump-era environmental regulatory decisions last week, with the Environmental Protection Agency taking the reins to undo pollution. 

The EPA and the Department of Transportation are set to propose a five-year return to Obama-era tailpipe emissions standards, rules that could come as soon as this week, according to industry and government officials briefed on the plan. And the administration is expected to subsequently phase in more stringent standards that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage 40 percent of U.S. drivers to choose electric vehicles by the end of the decade.

The timing coincides nicely with the White House’s plan to announce this week that a group of major carmakers — Ford, General Motors and Stellantis N.V., formerly Fiat Chrysler — will voluntarily pledge that at least 40 percent of all cars and SUVs in the country will be electric by 2030, a share that could potentially be raised to 50 percent with significant federal investment, according to three people briefed on the plan. The transportation sector is the United States’ largest contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, at 29 percent.

Meanwhile, the EPA also launched a new rulemaking process that would tighten restrictions on wastewater disposal from coal-fired power plants, in an effort to undo a Trump-era regulatory rollback that eased requirements mandating plants use modern filtration methods and other technology to treat water before allowing it to flow into waterways. The EPA is expected to propose new wastewater rules by fall 2022, with plans to finalize the stricter rule by the end of President Joe Biden’s term at the latest.

And on Friday, the EPA said it has a “forthcoming foundational rule,” which appears to return the country to a middle ground between Obama- and Trump-era Obama-era federal water protections, part of a two-step process for determining which waters will see federal pollution protections under the Clean Water Act. The second step will be an additional rule creating an “updated and durable definition of ‘waters of the United States,’ ” that will be subject to those pollution protections. 

In the other top energy news of the week: 

• In a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said the department is “evaluating” its options for resuming the sales of oil and gas leases on federal land, after a federal judge ordered the Biden administration to lift its pause on the sales roughly six weeks ago. Facing criticism from seven of the committee’s 20 senators, Haaland said Interior will release an interim report “soon” to guide future leasing decisions, which is expected to recommend increasing the royalty rates charged to companies looking to extract fossil fuels.
• The Biden administration is in the early stages of weighing a plan to pay the U.S. commercial fishing industry for any potential disruption to its operations caused by expanding offshore wind in the Atlantic Ocean, according to state and federal officials involved in those conversations. The commercial fishing industry has historically opposed offshore wind projects, pushback that has already disrupted large-scale wind projects and prompted a letter from nine coastal states asking the administration to develop “mitigation frameworks for demonstrated negative impacts” on fisheries.
• If temperature-related mortality is included in calculating the social cost of carbon, the costs are high, according to a study published in Nature Communications that could potentially encourage policymakers to move toward full decarbonization by 2050. The study found the “mortality cost of carbon” resulted in one excess death per every 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere, the equivalent of the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average people in the United States.
• A group of more than 50 investors that collectively manage more than $14 trillion in assets are calling on companies to publish the details of their plans to take on climate change and allow shareholders to vote annually on their plans. The joint statement argues that many businesses have made “net zero-by-2050” pledges but have yet to take concrete action.

90 solar companies

That’s how many a recent report from Sheffield Hallam University found with supply chains connected to Uyghur forced labor in China’s Xinjiang region. The U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association has encouraged its members to avoid sourcing from the region (which is a major source of polysilicon) as a whole and is moving toward formalizing a protocol to that effect.

1) Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction

Edward Helmore, The Guardian

2) Biden mileage rule to exceed Obama climate goal

Tom Krisher and Hope Yen, The Associated Press

3) Gensler Says SEC Climate Risk Rules Will Be Proposed by Year End

Robert Schmidt, Bloomberg

4) A different kind of solar technology is poised to go big

Maria Gallucci, Grist

5) US set for punishing temperatures as huge ‘heat dome’ to settle over country

Oliver Milman, The Guardian

6) Fidelity International threatens tough stance on climate and gender

Attracta Mooney, Financial Times

7) The Infrastructure Plan: What’s In and What’s Out

Aatish Bhatia and Quoctrung Bui, The New York Times

8) Berkshire Hathaway gas and power unit urges US incentives to support clean energy

Harry Weber, S&P Global Platts

9) Big Oil Companies Push Hydrogen as Green Alternative, but Obstacles Remain

Sarah McFarlane, The Wall Street Journal

10) Senators race to overcome final snags in infrastructure deal

Hope Yen and Lisa Mascaro, The Associated Press

• House Oversight panel demands interview with top Exxon lobbyist over climate (Axios)
• Tesla’s Quarterly Profit Soars to Record $1.1 Billion (The Wall Street Journal)
• Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Charged With Securities Fraud (The Wall Street Journal)
• Interior Department to review proposal for first wind power project off North Carolina coast (The Hill)
• Western governors ask Biden for aid on wildfires (The Hill)
• Exxon plans no ‘huge shifts in strategy’ after losing board fight (Financial Times)