Top Stories

  • A review of public filings and loan data released by the Treasury Department in June found that the Paycheck Protection Program has awarded between $192 million and $419 million to at least 125 companies that Chinese entities either own or invest in. The Horizon Advisory analysis of the U.S. small business loan program was not exhaustive and noted that these participating China-linked companies probably saved an undetermined number of jobs in the United States, though the report also suggested that many of these businesses likely had access to capital that would have supported U.S. operations. (The New York Times)
  • With Congress far apart in negotiations for another coronavirus relief package, the Trump administration is exploring the possibility of unilateral actions to address the pandemic-induced economic fallout, according to two people with direct knowledge of the deliberations. Talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows are expected to continue today, and it’s unclear what course of action the administration could pursue without Congress, including on expired programs President Donald Trump has recently prioritized addressing in the talks: an eviction moratorium and expanded unemployment benefits. (The Washington Post)
  • HSBC Holdings PLC reported $192 million in second-quarter net profit, a 96 percent drop from the $4.37 billion it earned during the year-ago period, citing lower interest rates and the pandemic-fueled economic downturn as reasons for the plunge. The London-based HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, said its deposits climbed 6 percent to $85 billion last quarter while its lending dropped 3 percent to $29 billion, and revenue dipped 12 percent to $5.6 billion. (The Associated Press)
  • The Federal Reserve is eyeing a shift in strategy that would essentially discontinue its 30-plus-year policy of preemptively lifting interest rates to avert high inflation, pursuing instead a more relaxed approach that would occasionally permit inflation to rise slightly above the Fed’s 2 percent target. The potential move follows signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week that the central bank is nearing the finish line of a robust review of its policymaking strategy. (The Wall Street Journal)

Chart Review

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

08/03/2020
Senate Finance open executive session on the nominations of Michael Nemelka, Christian Weiler and Alina Marshall 5:30 pm
08/05/2020
PIIE event: “Europe’s financial system structures transformed by EU policies, Brexit, and COVID-19” 9:00 am
SEC Meeting 10:00 am
Senate Banking Committee makeup to consider the nominations of Hester Peirce and Caroline Crenshaw for SEC and Kyle Hauptman for National Credit Union Administration Board 2:00 pm
Urban Institute event: “Responding to the COVID-19 Crisis: Protecting Student Borrowers amid the Pandemic” 3:30 pm
08/06/2020
WHF/WHFF Partner Series: Seila Law v. CFPB Decision: Where do we go from here? 12:00 pm
Tax Policy Center event: “The Prescription: Fiscal Policy for the COVID-19 Economy” 12:00 pm
Bloomberg Equality: Race, Money and Wall Street 12:00 pm
Urban Institute event: “How Changes in Property Taxes Shape Communities: Two Case Studies” 3:30 pm
08/07/2020
BLS Employment Situation 8:30 am
View full calendar

Webinar – Most Loved Brands: What Drives Brand Love In A Year Like No Other

Join Morning Consult Wednesday, August 5 at 1:00 PM ET for a webinar breaking down the results in this year’s edition of Most Loved Brands.

The webinar will explore which brands topped the list, what factors tend to drive brand love and how brands can excel in the COVID-19 era.

General

New Trump financial disclosure gives glimpse into pre-pandemic business income
Evan Semones, Politico

Before the coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc on the tourism and hospitality industries, President Donald Trump’s high-profile properties were humming along in 2019, according to an annual disclosure report released late Friday evening.

Wall Street Is Torn on Whether a Biden Win Brings Joy or Misery
Robert Schmidt and Jesse Hamilton, Bloomberg

As President Donald Trump’s poll numbers continue to sink, Wall Street is starting to envision Washington under Joe Biden — a scenario that many executives say they welcome. But to some pessimists, the upbeat view underestimates the rising influence of progressive Democrats who are demanding a clampdown on banks, hedge funds and private-equity firms.

Fed’s Kashkari suggests 4-6 week shutdown; says U.S. Congress can spend big on coronavirus relief
Tim Ahmann, Reuters

he U.S. economy could benefit if the nation were to “lock down really hard” for four to six weeks, a top Federal Reserve official said on Sunday, adding that Congress can well afford large sums for coronavirus relief efforts.

US economy in peril as unemployment payments expire
James Politi and Aime Williams, Financial Times

US lawmakers are facing increasingly shrill warnings over the dangers to the economy as Congress and the White House struggle to reach a deal on a new fiscal stimulus package, leaving millions of Americans without vital safety net payments and risking not just the US but also the global recovery.

WH Chief Of Staff ‘Not Optimistic’ About Coronavirus Stimulus Deal ‘In The Very Near Term’
Andrew Solender, Forbes

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Sunday expressed pessimism about ongoing stimulus bill negotiations between Democrats and Republicans as the two parties reach an impasse on a number of key policy areas.

How Senate’s Small Business Chairman Sees PPP Evolving
Yuka Hayashi, The Wall Street Journal

As the coronavirus pandemic began shutting down the U.S. economy in March, Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) spearheaded legislation creating the $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program, one of the most expensive business-rescue frameworks in history.

July Jobs Data Will Provide Clues on Strength of the Recovery
Eric Morath, The Wall Street Journal

The July jobs report, to be released Friday, could be among the most politically consequential of the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Behind the Vast Market Rally: A Tumbling Dollar
Amrith Ramkumar, The Wall Street Journal

The dollar has made a sharp U-turn this summer following a long rally, confounding many traders but potentially adding fuel to this year’s surprising stock-market rebound.

Consumer Spending Rose 5.6% in June
Josh Mitchell and Te-Ping Chen, The Wall Street Journal

Consumers stepped up spending for the second straight month in June but fresher evidence shows households recently pulled back as coronavirus infections rose, suggesting the U.S. economy is destined for a choppy ride ahead.

Head of Securities-Fraud Unit at Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office Exits
Rebecca Davis O’Brien, The Wall Street Journal

Jason Cowley, a federal prosecutor who in recent years has overseen the securities-fraud unit at the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office, has left the government for the private sector.

Coin Shortages Are Causing a Liquidity Crisis at Laundromats
Michael Tobin, Bloomberg Businessweek

Every morning, Charles Boukas drives to six Chase banks in the San Diego area in search of quarters. The most he ever drove to was eight, but one branch was closed that day, and two others didn’t have change. Boukas, the 55-year-old owner of the Coin Hut Laundromat, is in a bind: He’s running low on quarters because residents of apartment complexes are making change and not using his machines. The whole trip takes about two hours, and the total amount of quarters he can get is worth $120 because his banks limit how many coins they give out. So he’s been seeking alternative sources.

Fitch lowers its outlook on US credit rating to ‘negative’
Martin Crutsinger, The Associated Press

Fitch has lowered the outlook for its U.S. government credit rating to “negative” from “stable” due to soaring budget deficits, but the agency is keeping its overall rating at the highest AAA level.

Lord & Taylor, Men’s Wearhouse owner file for bankruptcy
The Associated Press

Lord & Taylor, one of America’s oldest department stores, has filed for bankruptcy, joining a growing list of stores slammed by the coronavirus pandemic. Tailored Brands, the parent company of Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Banks, filed for bankruptcy as well.

Europe Stocks Rise on Factory Data; Bonds Slip: Markets Wrap
Todd White, Bloomberg

European stocks advanced on Monday as positive economic data countered pessimism over a resurgence of Covid-19 cases. U.S. equity futures edged higher, while Treasuries slipped.

Banking

Wells Fargo Sold Assets to Stay Under Fed Asset Cap as Markets Lurched
Julie Steinberg and Ben Eisen, The Wall Street Journal

Wells Fargo Co. unloaded hundreds of millions of dollars of assets during this spring’s market collapse to stay out of trouble with the Federal Reserve.

Fed Is Headed for a Clash With Hedge Funds, Other Shadow Banks
Rich Miller and Jesse Hamilton

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are heading for a collision with shadow lenders — the firms with a sinister nickname that are increasingly dominating global finance.

The Only One in the Room
Max Abelson et al., Bloomberg

On Wall Street, being Black often means being alone, held back, deprived of the best opportunities. Here, Black men and women tell their stories.

When Their PPP Loans Didn’t Come Through, These Businesses Broke Up With Their Banks
Peter Rudegeair, The Wall Street Journal

In Pavia Rosati’s hour of financial need, her bank ghosted her. It was April, and the coronavirus pandemic was taking a toll on Ms. Rosati’s New York-based travel-writing website and consulting firm, Fathom Unlimited Inc. She went to Capital One Financial Corp., Fathom’s bank for nearly 10 years, for a Paycheck Protection Program loan.

Deutsche Bank probes Trump banker’s apartment deal
Laura Noonan, Financial Times

Donald Trump’s longtime private banker at Deutsche Bank, Rosemary Vrablic, is facing an internal investigation into the terms of a previously unknown apartment deal between her and a company co-owned by the US president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Financial Products and Investments

CME to pay $3.5m over leak of secret trade data
Gregory Meyer, Financial Times

CME Group, the largest US exchange operator, has agreed to pay at least $3.5m after admitting liability in a case in which two former employees leaked secret trade data to a commodities broker. 

Housing and GSEs

Where a Little Mortgage Goes a Long Way
Matthew Goldstein, The New York Times

Small-dollar mortgages open a path to homeownership for those who otherwise would be shut out, particularly Black and Hispanic borrowers. But they are not popular among lenders. Last year, mortgages for $100,000 or less accounted for just 10 percent of loans used to buy a single-family home or a condominium in the United States, according to Attom Data, a housing data company. That share is down from 17 percent in 2014.

Taxes

Treasury to conduct policy review of tax-exempt status for universities after Trump tweets
Naomi Jagoda, The Hill

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin anticipates that his department will conduct a review of guidance related to the tax-exempt status of universities after President Trump tweeted earlier this month that he wanted the department to re-examine schools’ tax exemptions.

Financial Technology

Fintech Varo Money Gets Rare Green Light to Become Bank
Orla McCaffrey, The Wall Street Journal

Financial-technology firm Varo Money Inc. said Friday it had received a national bank charter, clearing the final hurdle in its quest to become a bank.

Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives

Policymakers Must Not Overlook Our Nation’s Ports
K.N. Gunalan and Christopher J. Connor, Morning Consult

For months now, COVID-19 has profoundly altered our ways of life. While many aspects of our daily routines have come to a halt to slow the virus’s spread, our infrastructure systems — water pipes, electric grid, freight networks and more — are still running around the clock, supporting our daily existence while ensuring public health and safety.

How Trump Can Deliver Tax Relief Without Congress
Stephen Moore and Phil Kerpen, The Wall Street Journal

President Trump needs to reset the debate on the latest coronavirus relief bill. Senate Republicans have scuttled their best pro-growth idea—a payroll tax cut—and instead released a $1 trillion spending bill. Last week Mr. Trump acknowledged that compromising with Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a fool’s errand, because the House won’t agree to anything that boosts growth and job creation. The Democratic plan includes a six-month extension of the $600-a-week unemployment bonus and $3 trillion in new spending. It would sink the economy and imperil Mr. Trump’s re-election.

Research Reports

The Impact of COVID-19 on Student Experiences and Expectations: Evidence from a Survey
Esteban M. Aucejo et al., The National Bureau of Economic Research

Due to COVID-19: 13% of students have delayed graduation, 40% lost a job, internship, or a job offer, and 29% expect to earn less at age 35. Moreover, these effects have been highly heterogeneous. One quarter of students increased their study time by more than 4 hours per week due to COVID-19, while another quarter decreased their study time by more than 5 hours per week. This heterogeneity often followed existing socioeconomic divides; lower-income students are 55% more likely to have delayed graduation due to COVID-19 than their higher-income peers.

Morning Consult