Morning Consult Finance: Biden Said to Weigh Aligning Fed Appointments With White House Agenda




 


Finance

Essential financial news & intel to start your day.
July 8, 2021
Twitter Email
 

Top Stories

  • The Biden administration is considering using openings on the Federal Reserve Board to bring the central bank closer to the administration’s priorities, including addressing inequality and adding more stringent banking regulations, people familiar with the matter said. President Joe Biden could currently fill one empty Fed governor seat, and Chair Jerome Powell and vice chairs Richard Clarida and Randal Quarles’ terms will expire within months, although Powell’s renomination is possible as there are currently no clear candidates to replace Powell and he’s expressed an interest in keeping the job. (Bloomberg
  • Some Fed officials thought the time could be coming “somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data” to reduce the Fed’s $120 billion-a-month Treasury and mortgage securities purchases, according to minutes from the central bank’s mid-June policy meeting. Yet other Fed officials thought the central bank should be patient due to weaker-than-expected jobs reports. (The Wall Street Journal
  • Vaccines will be required for Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis employees when they return to the office next month, according to a memo from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, but those who have medical conditions or religious beliefs that prevent them from getting the coronavirus vaccine will receive accommodations. Kashkari, who said that 82 percent of workers at the Minneapolis Fed have already been vaccinated while the rest haven’t disclosed their plans or don’t plan to get vaccinated, wrote that while some people may disagree with the requirement, “we believe most will appreciate the actions we are taking on our collective behalf.” (The New York Times
  • The Senate could consider the infrastructure bill on the floor as early as the week of July 19, several House and Senate sources with knowledge of conversations said. A White House official, meanwhile, said that lawmakers are still finalizing the text for the infrastructure compromise bill and budget resolution legislation, and that “it would be a mistake to think of July 19 as anything more than the opening of a window.” (Politico)  
 

Chart Review



 
 

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

 

What Else You Need to Know

General
 

Biden to Target Railroads, Ocean Shipping in Executive Order

Ted Mann, The Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration will push regulators to confront consolidation and perceived anticompetitive pricing in the ocean shipping and railroad industries as part of a broad effort to blunt the power of big business to dominate industries, according to a person familiar with the situation. As part of a sweeping executive order expected this week, the administration will ask the Federal Maritime Commission and the Surface Transportation Board to combat what it calls a pattern of consolidation and aggressive pricing that has made it onerously expensive for American companies to transport goods to market.

 

Biden Pitches Child-Care, Education Plan as Democrats Debate Size

Andrew Restuccia and Kristina Peterson, The Wall Street Journal

President Biden sought to rally public support for a multitrillion-dollar education and child-care plan at the core of his domestic-policy agenda, as Democrats in Congress wrestle with disagreements over the size and scope of the package. “To truly win the 21st century and once again lead the world, to truly build an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, to truly deal everybody in this time, we need to invest in our people,” Mr. Biden said at McHenry County College in Crystal Lake, Ill.

 

Stock Futures Drop, Bond Yields Skid Lower

Joe Wallace, The Wall Street Journal

Stock futures point to the Dow shedding over 450 points Thursday while Treasury yields sank for a fourth day as investors unwound bets on a spell of high growth and inflation. Futures on the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, suggesting the broad stock-market gauge will pull back at the opening bell a day after it closed at an all-time high.

 
Fiscal Policy
 

As Bezos called for tax hikes, Amazon lobbied to keep its tax bill low

Theodoric Meyer, Politico

As Amazon publicly embraced President Joe Biden’s plan to raise the corporate tax rate across the board, it has also lobbied Congress to preserve a prized tax break that’s helped it lower its corporate tax bill. The retail giant’s founder Jeff Bezos earned plaudits earlier this year when he announced that Amazon would back “a rise in the corporate tax rate” to help pay for Biden’s infrastructure package. 

 

Kids and tax cuts: Why Dems need a sales pitch to seal a major Biden win

Sarah Ferris, Politico

Democrats pushed through a landmark new anti-poverty policy just months ago. Now they have to make sure they get credit — and get the whole thing to last.

 

Conservative groups mount opposition to increase in IRS budget, threatening White House infrastructure plan

Jeff Stein et al., The Washington Post

Conservative political groups are mobilizing against a key element of a bipartisan infrastructure deal, and their opposition could make it harder for the U.S. government to collect unpaid taxes. Congressional Democrats and Republicans have agreed to increase funding for the Internal Revenue Service so that the agency can bring in more tax revenue, hoping the money can help pay down some of the infrastructure package’s expected price tag.

 

Campaign to Rein in Mega IRA Tax Shelters Gains Steam in Congress Following ProPublica Report

James Bandler et al., ProPublica

Two members of Congress who have long been responsible for shaping federal laws on retirement savings are considering major reforms after ProPublica exposed how the ultrawealthy are turning retirement accounts into gargantuan tax shelters. Rep. Richard Neal, the Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, told ProPublica that he has directed the committee to draft a bill that “will stop IRAs from being exploited.”

 

Ireland’s Days as a Tax Haven May Be Ending, but Not Without a Fight

Liz Alderman, The New York Times

On the crowded waterside quay of Dublin’s Silicon Docks neighborhood, Google’s European headquarters tower above the skyline. Facebook and Twitter are neighbors. The European bases of Apple, Pfizer and hundreds of U.S. multinationals are implanted around the country, symbols of the commerce produced by Ireland’s famously low corporate taxes.

 
Economy and Monetary Policy
 

Biden Insists He Can Do More With Less on the Economy

Jim Tankersley and Michael D. Shear, The New York Times

President Biden and his team have entered a “do more with less” phase of his economic agenda, dictated by the political realities of a closely divided Congress. The American Jobs Plan that Mr. Biden unveiled in March included $330 billion in new spending that the administration promised would replace every lead drinking pipe in America, connect every home to high-speed internet and build 500,000 charging stations for electric cars and trucks.

 

A $9 Trillion Binge Turns Central Banks Into the Market’s Biggest Whales

Malcolm Scott et al., Bloomberg

Since the start of the pandemic, central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan have been on a $9 trillion spending spree. That binge has turned the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan into the ultimate market whales, swelling their combined assets to $24 trillion.

 

Higher inflation is among the risks facing the economic recovery, the I.M.F. warns.

Eshe Nelson, The New York Times

Rising inflation, particularly in the United States, is among the risks facing the global economy amid a “worsening two-track recovery,” the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday. “There is a risk of a more sustained rise in inflation or inflation expectations, which could potentially require an earlier-than-expected tightening of U.S. monetary policy,” Kristalina Georgieva, the I.M.F. managing director, wrote in a blog post.

 

Unemployment Claims Have Continued Easing as Hiring Heats Up

Eric Morath, The Wall Street Journal

New applications for unemployment benefits have trended down this summer, indicating that the labor market is healing from the Covid-19 downturn as many states end participation in enhanced jobless assistance programs related to the pandemic. Economists estimate that first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 for the week ended July 3, from 364,000 during the prior week, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.

 

Quest to Define Post-Crisis Global Economic Order Gathers Pace

Alessandra Migliaccio et al., Bloomberg

Global finance chiefs this week will make their most concerted effort yet to redefine the world economic order in the era after Donald Trump and the coronavirus pandemic. With trade tensions no longer bedeviling the Group of 20 economies in the way they did during the former U.S. president’s tenure, the first in-person meeting of its finance ministers since the disease struck last year will attempt to forge consensus on unfinished business ranging from climate change to corporate taxation.

 
Banking
 

Citi Sees Most Staffers Back at U.S., U.K. Offices by September

Jennifer Surane, Bloomberg

Citigroup Inc. said it’s expecting almost all employees in the U.S. and U.K. to return to the office at least part of the time by September. Health data in both countries is “much improved,” giving the lender confidence it will be able to invite more staff back in two months, Sara Wechter, Citigroup’s head of human resources, said in a post on LinkedIn. 

 

Global banks to launch voluntary carbon offset market platform

Susanna Twidale, Reuters

Four global banks will next month launch a pilot platform for buying and selling voluntary carbon credits, they said on Wednesday, the latest sign of growing interest from the financial community in the burgeoning carbon offset market. A private sector task force on scaling up the voluntary carbon market said earlier this year the market will need to grow 15-fold to meet goals set under the Paris climate agreement and could be worth $5-$50 billion by 2030.

 
Financial Products and Investments
 

Borrowing Is Back as Sign-Ups for Auto Loans, Credit Cards Hit Records

AnnaMaria Andriotis, The Wall Street Journal

Americans are borrowing again, in some cases at levels not seen in more than a decade. Consumer demand for auto loans and leases, general-purpose credit cards and personal loans was up 39% in April compared with the same period last year, according to credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc.

 

President Biden Signs Bill to Fund CFTC Whistleblower Program

Mengqi Sun, The Wall Street Journal

President Biden has signed into law legislation that would temporarily set up a new account to pay for the operations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s whistleblower program, paving the way for the U.S. derivatives markets regulator to resolve a funding crisis over a large potential payout. The bill, an amended version of the CFTC Fund Management Act, was signed into law by the president on Tuesday, after Congress passed the bipartisan legislation last month.

 

U.S. SEC to consider new ‘sustainable’ fund criteria, data disclosure rules

Katanga Johnson and Ross Kerber, Reuters

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler said on Wednesday the regulator would consider rules to require “sustainable” fund managers to disclose the criteria and underlying data used to support the label. Regulators and activists are becoming increasingly concerned that U.S. funds looking to cash in on the popularity of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) investing may be misleading shareholders over their products’ underlying holdings, a practice known as “greenwashing.”

 

SEC May Require Fund Managers to Disclose Staff Diversity Data

Alan Mirabella, Bloomberg

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said the agency is examining whether to require asset managers to bolster disclosure of workforce and management diversity. “I have asked SEC staff to consider ways that we can enhance such transparency,” Gensler said Wednesday at an SEC event.

 

James and Kathryn Murdoch back $250m BlackRock climate fundraising

Michael Mackenzie, Financial Times

Vehicle hopes to raise $500m to invest in clean energy assets in emerging markets.

 
Housing and GSEs
 

‘Five-alarm fire’: Slow trickle of rental aid heightens concern about eviction crisis

Rachel Siegel, The Washington Post

The White House, along with state and local governments, is under growing pressure to significantly ramp up the amount of emergency rental relief reaching tenants and landlords, as some economists and housing advocates say the Biden administration’s attention to the eviction crisis is coming too late. Weeks before an eviction moratorium put in place by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expires on July 31, much of the federal aid meant to help tenants and landlords has not reached them.

 
Financial Technology
 

Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital

Misyrlena Egkolfopoulou and Charlie Wells, Bloomberg

You remember The Money Chant: Matthew McConaughey thumping his chest, talking fools and money before — sniff! — a little lunchtime “tootski.” Titan Maxamus has been there. 

 

Sen. Warren warns of cryptocurrency risks, presses SEC on oversight authority

Andrea Shalal, Reuters

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren on Thursday warned of the growing risks posed to consumers and financial markets by the “highly opaque and volatile” cryptocurrency market and blasted its lack of regulation as unsustainable. Warren, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy, also raised her concerns in a letter to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler on Wednesday, in an effort that could help lay the groundwork for legislation to regulate the fast-growing market. 

 

U.K. Fintech Wise Makes Strong Debut in London Direct Listing

Ben Dummett and Simon Clark, The Wall Street Journal

Wise PLC’s shares made a strong trading debut in London Wednesday, as investors bet on the online money-transfer service’s ability to win business from established banks. The U.K.-based fintech, formerly known as TransferWise, closed its first day of trading with a market valuation of about £8.75 billion, equivalent to around $12 billion. 

 

Southeast Asia Is World’s Fastest-Growing Mobile Wallet Market

Yoolim Lee, Bloomberg

Southeast Asia is the world’s fastest-growing region for mobile wallets, followed by Latin America and Africa & Middle East, research from London-based fintech company Boku Inc. shows. The number of mobile wallets in use will grow 311% from 2020 to almost 440 million by 2025 across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, reflecting an e-commerce boom, according to a global study on the industry, which was published on Thursday in partnership with Juniper Research Ltd. 

 
Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives
 

Fund Managers Have Much to Fear From Inflation

Richard Cookson, Bloomberg

Central bankers might sound relaxed, but inflationary pressures are quickly rising, and not just in the U.S. For example, more manufacturers say they are paying higher prices for materials than any time since 1979, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s report for June.

 







Morning Consult