• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will pay more than $2 billion to settle a Department of Justice investigation into the bank’s fundraising for the 1MDB investment fund, with an announcement of the deal potentially coming in days, people familiar with the matter said. Goldman Sachs’ parent company would not receive a U.S. criminal conviction, the sources said, under terms of the agreement, which comes after the bank agreed to pay $2.5 billion to Malaysia in July over a related investigation into its dealings with the 1MDB investment fund. (Bloomberg)

• Ahead of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Tuesday deadline to reach a deal on a new economic stimulus package before the election, the California Democrat spoke with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for about an hour yesterday and the pair are expected to continue their talks today, with Pelosi saying last night that there were signs of progress, including the Trump administration’s agreement to language demanded by Democrats that acknowledged racial disparities in the coronavirus’ impact. The issues still separating Democrats and the White House include liability protections for businesses, a key Republican priority, funding for state and local governments, language on health care spending and COVID-19 testing provisions, and President Donald Trump signaled doubts about the likelihood of securing a deal, telling reporters that Pelosi “does not want to do anything that’s going to affect the election.” (The Washington Post)

• A survey released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found that the proportion of U.S. households without access to a bank account fell to 5.4 percent in 2019 compared to a rate of 6.5 percent in 2017, making last year’s unbanked rate the lowest level on record since the biennial survey began in 2009, but officials said they expect the pandemic-induced recession to stymie additional progress in lowering rates across the board. The unbanked rates for Black and Latino households in 2019 were 13.8 percent and 12.2 percent, respectively, while the rate for white households was just 2.5 percent. (The Wall Street Journal)

As Washington scrambles for more bailout money, the Fed sits on mountain of untapped funds
Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein, The Washington Post

The White House and Congress are fighting over an economic relief bill, and odds appear low they will reach a deal before the November election. Yet hundreds of billions of dollars already set aside by lawmakers to support the Federal Reserve’s emergency aid programs may never be touched, illustrating the unevenness of Congress’s bailout decisions from earlier this year.

Top Fed Official Says Policy Response Could Speed Faster Recovery
Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal

A top Federal Reserve official said Monday the U.S. economy could stage a faster recovery from the coronavirus-induced recession than it did following the 2008 global financial crisis.

Fed’s Bostic says significant portions of U.S. recovery are weak or nonexistent
Jonnelle Marte, Reuters

It will be a while before the U.S. economy is fully recovered and before the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or remove the support it is providing financial markets, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Monday.

US voters no longer see Donald Trump’s policies helping recovery
Lauren Fedor in Washington and Christine Zhang, Financial Times

Final pre-election FT-Peterson poll shows more believe president is hurting the economy.

Fear of Job Loss Haunts Half of World’s Workers as Crisis Rages
Craig Stirling, Bloomberg

More than half of workers around the world are worried about losing their jobs, according to a survey measuring labor-market insecurity wreaked by the coronavirus crisis.

They Pumped $9 Billion Into Small Businesses. They Want to Do More
Nick Leiber, Bloomberg Businessweek

States, cities, and community groups scrambled to launch loan and grant programs for struggling local businesses after the coronavirus pandemic upended life across the U.S. The programs were meant to complement, not be a substitute for, massive federal initiatives including the Paycheck Protection Program, which ran from April through early August. But the local efforts wound up providing aid that meant the difference between survival and failure for many businesses.

Farmers Stick With Trump, Despite Trade-War Pain
Jacob Bunge, The Wall Street Journal

A September poll by agricultural publication Farm Futures found 75% of farmers surveyed in July planned to vote for Mr. Trump, compared with 72.6% ahead of the 2016 election.

How Apprenticeship, Reimagined, Vaults Graduates Into Middle Class
Josh Mitchell, The Wall Street Journal

Not long ago, Ricky Brown, approaching 40 and wanting a raise, decided to go to college. After he earned a degree, his salary increased by 40%. Mr. Brown didn’t get a traditional four-year degree, though, or even a traditional two-year one. He went through an apprenticeship-style program in Kentucky. New research shows it is paying off big for graduates, who typically earn nearly six figures within five years of graduation.

U.S. to Sign Limited Trade Deal With Brazil
Ana Swanson, The New York Times

The United States and Brazil have reached an agreement on a limited trade deal that will facilitate commerce between the countries, strengthen regulatory practices and crack down on corruption, officials from the two countries announced Monday.

U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Qaeda Financier Who Trades in Gems
Pranshu Verma, The New York Times

The Trump administration on Monday imposed sanctions on an Australian-based businessman and his gemstone company for helping Al Qaeda move money across the globe to sustain its operations.

U.S. Futures Extend Gains Amid Final Stimulus Push: Markets Wrap
Todd White, Bloomberg

U.S. equity futures extended gains on Monday as investors clung to hopes for a deal in stimulus talks. Europe equities fluctuated after a string of positive earnings.

NCUA chief unveils plan to tackle ‘the civil rights issue of our time’
Aaron Passman, American Banker

The National Credit Union Administration is expanding the work it does to focus on financial inclusion efforts, a key priority for NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood. In remarks Monday at the Hope Global Forum, Hood announced the launch of ACCESS, a new initiative from the agency focused on broadening the work NCUA and the wider industry do to bring consumers into the financial mainstream.

UBS Profit Doubles on Trading Surge
Margot Patrick, The Wall Street Journal

UBS Group AG said its net profit nearly doubled in the third quarter on a surge in client trading and deal making, freeing up cash for dividends and share buybacks despite the coronavirus pandemic.

Banks in Hong Kong advised to report security law breaches to police
Primrose Riordan and Nicolle Liu, Financial Times

Critics say guidelines could lead companies to flout the rights of their customers.

Investors bet US recovery will force long-term bond yields higher
Laurence Fletcher, Financial Times

Money managers wager ‘blue wave’ in US election and good news on Covid could reduce uncertainty.

Funds’ hidden currency costs run to hundreds of millions of dollars
Eva Szalay, Financial Times

New analysis suggests investors continue to overpay for forex trades.

BlackRock Says Scale of Restructuring May Exceed 2008 Crisis
Denise Wee, Bloomberg

BlackRock Inc. says that the scale of restructuring needs globally could exceed the previous peak that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.

ESG-Linked Loan Boom Hit by Pandemic Push for Short-Term Funds
Jacqueline Poh, Bloomberg

The global boom in loans to companies with interest rates pegged to their performance on sustainability goals is stalling this year as the pandemic forces more borrowers to seek short-term funds.

These Are the World’s Best (and Worst) Pension Systems in 2020
Matthew Burgess, Bloomberg

The Netherlands and Denmark have cemented their positions as having the best pension systems in the world, even as other countries falter during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to an annual global survey.

Morgan Stanley’s Gorman stresses caution amid ‘turmoil and uncertainty’
Mark Schoeff Jr., Investment News

A tense election highlighted by political fractures and social unrest combined with the COVID-19 pandemic that could last well into next year and an economy that’s struggling in many areas should make investors cautious, Morgan Stanley chief executive James Gorman said Monday.

Black Homeowners Pay $13,464 More on Their Mortgages, Study Says
Yalman Onaran, Bloomberg

Black borrowers pay $13,464 more over the life of a home loan, with interest, mortgage-insurance and tax expenses higher than for their White counterparts, further hurting African Americans’ ability to save for retirement, according to a new study.

Homebuilder confidence in U.S. increases to fresh record high
Gufeng Ren, Bloomberg

U.S. homebuilder confidence advanced in October to a fresh all-time high as record-low interest rates continued to fuel sales and the demand outlook.

Chasing Illicit Money, Global Officials Circle a Puerto Rican Firm
Matthew Goldstein and Damien Cave, The New York Times

Tax authorities from the United States and four other countries have joined forces to stop shadowy global money networks that use international borders to stymie local investigations.

Biden’s tax plan could create a tax rate of as much 62% for New Yorkers and Californians, studies show
Robert Frank, CNBC

While Americans earning less than $400,000 would, on average, receive tax cuts under Biden’s plan, the highest earners would face double-digit increases in their official tax rates, according to nonpartisan analyses. In California, New Jersey and New York City, taxpayers earning more than $400,000 a year could face combined state and local statutory income tax rates of more than 60%.

Fed Takes Cautious Approach to Possibly Issuing Digital Currency
Yuka Hayashi, The Wall Street Journal

The Federal Reserve is in no hurry to issue a digital currency, Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday, citing unresolved concerns including the potential for theft and fraud.

Bitcoin Approaches $12,000 After Snapping Equities Correlation
Vildana Hajric, Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s biggest rally in more than a week has pushed it to the brink of $12,000, a key level watched by chartists and technicians.

U.S. Treasury’s FinCEN Issues $60 Million Penalty Against Operator of Bitcoin ‘Mixers’
Mengqi Sun, The Wall Street Journal

A bureau of the U.S. Treasury Department Monday imposed a $60 million penalty on Larry Dean Harmon, operator of the bitcoin “mixers” Helix and Coin Ninja, for allegedly violating anti-money-laundering laws, the agency said.

Don’t stand in the way of CRA reform
Brian P. Brooks, American Banker

Now is not the time to slow Community Reinvestment Act modernization. Meaningful help is on the way to low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and underserved communities nationwide since the Federal Reserve Board began its rulemaking process in September, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized its CRA rule in May.

Voters Tend to Trust Trump on the Economy. Yet He’s Behind. Why?
Gerald F. Seib, The Wall Street Journal

It’s been 28 years since adviser James Carville helped propel Bill Clinton to the presidency by posting a sign in campaign headquarters reminding everyone there: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That was his singular way of drilling home the message that the economy mattered more to voters than anything else.

Now Unions Increase Job Satisfaction and Well-being
David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson, National Bureau of Economic Research

Using data from the United States and Europe on nearly two million respondents we show the partial correlation between union membership and employee job satisfaction is positive and statistically significant. This runs counter to findings in the seminal work of Freeman (1978) and Borjas (1979) in the 1970s and most empirical studies since. With data for the United States we show the association between union membership and job satisfaction switched from negative to positive in the 2000s.