Morning Consult Finance:GOP Senators Back on Board With Bipartisan Infrastructure Agreement After Biden Walks Back Veto Comment

 

Finance

Essential financial news &intel to start your day.
June 28, 2021
Twitter Email
 

Top Stories

  • Several Senate Republicans who were concerned with President Joe Biden’s comments that he wouldn’t sign the bipartisan infrastructure agreement without a reconciliation bill addressing other Democratic priorities said they were reassured by Biden’s later statement walking back those comments. Officials said that Biden spoke with senators in the bipartisan group that came up with the agreement over the weekend, and will travel to Wisconsin tomorrow to pitch the economic benefits of the proposal. (The Wall Street Journal
  • Binance Markets Ltd. must confirm to the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority by Wednesday evening that it has removed all advertising and financial promotions and that it must make clear that it can’t operate in the United Kingdom. The ban, which takes place as regulators around the globe zero in on addressing risks that cryptocurrency poses especially in regards to anti-money laundering, can’t be lifted without prior written consent. (Bloomberg
  • Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the housing market should be considered as the central bank weighs continued monetary support to the economy, noting that the economy can’t afford a “boom and bust cycle” in the market. Rosengren said that reaching a 2 percent inflation target can’t be sustainable with a boom and bust real estate cycle. (Financial Times
 

Chart Review

 
 

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

 

What Else You Need to Know

General
 

GOP struggles with diversity test on powerful finance panel

Zachary Warmbrodt, Politico

A race to fill one of the most coveted committee seats in Congress is forcing Republican leaders to make a tough choice between how much they value seniority over the need to improve diversity in their ranks. At least six GOP lawmakers are vying for an open spot on the House Financial Services Committee, whose vast jurisdiction includes overseeing banks and the nation’s stock markets.

 

Bipartisan Deal Would Meet Only Some of Nation’s Infrastructure Needs

Jim Tankersley et al., The New York Times

There is enough money in the bipartisan infrastructure deal to replace all the lead pipes in America, White House officials say, but not nearly enough to repair every road and bridge that the nation’s civil engineers argue needs fixing. Administration officials say there is enough money to build 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations across the country, but they concede there is not enough to fully power a national transition from fossil fuels toward a lower-pollution transportation sector.

 
Fiscal Policy
 

Dems prepare for messy budget fight that could derail Biden’s infrastructure deal

Sarah Ferris and Caitlin Emma, Politico

President Joe Biden and Senate negotiators took their first big step toward an infrastructure deal last week. Now comes the real monster:approval of the budget that makes it all happen.

 

The Ultrawealthy Have Hijacked Roth IRAs. The Senate Finance Chair Is Eyeing a Crackdown.

Justin Elliot et al., ProPublica

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden said on Thursday he is revisiting proposed legislation that would crack down on the giant tax-free retirement accounts amassed by the ultrawealthy after a ProPublica story exposed that billionaires were shielding fortunes inside them. “I feel very strongly that the IRA was designed to provide retirement security to working people and their families, and not be yet another tax dodge that allows mega millionaires and billionaires to avoid paying taxes,” Wyden said in an interview.

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal could make it harder for tax cheats to elude IRS

Yeganeh Torbati, The Washington Post

The bipartisan deal on new infrastructure spending that President Biden reached this week with a group of moderate Democrats and Republicans in the Senate represents a significant achievement for the White House, and not only for the roughly $1 trillion it would direct to public works projects if passed into law. The deal would also secure a boost in the budget of the Internal Revenue Service after a decade of cuts, which independent experts say is critical to ensuring businesses and the wealthiest Americans pay what they owe in taxes. 

 

Democrats Focus on Turning Tax Talk Into Action

Richard Rubin and Andre Duehren, The Wall Street Journal

Democrats face a daunting task:turning years of talking about raising taxes on corporations and high-income Americans into legislation that can get through razor-thin congressional majorities and onto President Biden’s desk. As top Democrats design a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure deal, and a second, broader antipoverty package in coming months, they need to resolve differences over the amount of spending, how much must be paid for, and which of Mr. Biden’s proposed tax increases should advance.

 
Economy and Monetary Policy
 

Top Republican warns Fed risks being ‘behind the curve’ on inflation

James Politi, Financial Times

Senator Pat Toomey says central bank may have to take ‘severe action’ unless it tightens policy soon.

 

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Remains High, but Gains Slowed in May

Jeanna Smialek, The New York Times

Inflation climbed in May at the fastest pace since 2008, as businesses reopening from pandemic shutdowns and strong demand continued to push prices higher, fueling anxiety among some economists and debate in Washington. The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation index increased 3.9 percent in the year through May, in line with what economists in a Bloomberg survey had anticipated.

 

Americans Are Leaving Unemployment Rolls More Quickly in States Cutting Off Benefits

Eric Morath, The Wall Street Journal

The number of unemployment-benefit recipients is falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments this month, suggesting that ending the aid could push more people to take jobs. Federal pandemic aid bills boosted unemployment payments by $300 a person each week and extended those payments for as long as 18 months, well longer than the typical 26 weeks or less. 

 

Where Jobless Benefits Were Cut, Jobs Are Still Hard to Fill

Patricia Cohen, The New York Times

By lunchtime, the representatives from the recruiting agency Express Employment Professionals decided to pack up and leave the job fair in the St. Louis suburb of Maryland Heights. Hardly anyone had shown up.

 

Capital-Spending Surge Further Lifts Economic Recovery

Sarah Chaney Cambon, The Wall Street Journal

Business investment is emerging as a powerful source of U.S. economic growth that will likely help sustain the recovery. Companies are ramping up orders for computers, machinery and software as they grow more confident in the outlook.

 

Inflation summer vs. recovery summer:Biden fights to win the narrative

Ben White, Politico

President Joe Biden faces a daunting task over the summer months:convincing Americans struggling to return to a normal life that rising prices on everything from gasoline and food to airline tickets won’t last. Republicans — seeing a potential repeat of President Barack Obama’s “Recovery Summer” of 2010 when the economy suddenly backslid after emerging from the Great Recession — have used the price spikes to attack the administration’s big-spending plans and response to the pandemic.

 

During Covid-19, Most Americans Got Richer—Especially the Rich

Olra McCaffrey and Shane Shifflett, The Wall Street Journal

The coronavirus pandemic plunged Americans into recession. Instead of emerging poorer, many came out ahead.U.S. households added $13.5 trillion in wealth last year, according to the Federal Reserve, the biggest increase in records going back three  decades.

 

Fed Officials Debate Scaling Back Mortgage-Bond Purchases at Faster Clip

Paul Kiernan, The Wall Street Journal

As Federal Reserve officials discuss how to eventually scale back their easy-money policies, they are debating whether to start by reducing purchases of mortgage-backed securities to avoid adding more fuel to the housing boom. The Fed has bought $982 billion of the mortgage bonds since March 5, 2020, and currently plans to keep buying at least $40 billion each month. 

 

New York and Other Northeast States See Large Drop in Unemployment

Bryan Mena, The Wall Street Journal

The labor-market recovery picked up momentum this spring in the Northeast, with New York, Connecticut and other nearby states posting sizable drops in unemployment last month. The jobless rate in Rhode Island decreased 0.5 percentage point in May to a seasonally adjusted 5.8%, matching the national average unemployment rate and matching Delaware for the biggest drop, according to Labor Department data.

 

Why Two Leading Inflation Gauges Show Different Results

Gwynn Guilford, The Wall Street Journal

The Commerce Department’s measure of inflation showed Friday that consumer prices rose 3.9% in May from a year before, a big jump but smaller than the 5% jump registered by a Labor Department measure released two weeks ago. So which is it? Both. 

 

Commodities Remain a Popular Bet Despite Recent Declines

Ryan Dezember et al., The Wall Street Journal

Many commodities from copper to lumber have dropped from their peak pandemic prices, easing the most acute worries about an inflationary spiral. But investors remain bullish on many of them, arguing they still look cheap. Copper is down 10% from a record it hit in March. Front-month futures for corn and soybeans are off their May highs by 13% and 19%, respectively. 

 
Banking
 

Macron rolls out red carpet to JPMorgan, global CEOs in post-Brexit push

Michel Rose et al., Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron will declare that Paris is back on the map of global finance on Tuesday when he inaugurates JPMorgan’s new trading hub in the French capital which he hopes will attract more bankers leaving post-Brexit Britain. The U.S. bank’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, will be one of almost 120 international CEOs travelling to Versailles on Monday for Macron’s now traditional “Choose France” summit in which he pitches France as an investment destination.

 

UBS to Let Two-Thirds of Employees Adopt Permanent Hybrid Work

Yuegi Yang et al., Bloomberg

UBS Group AG will permanently allow as many as two-thirds of its employees to adopt a hybrid model of working from home and the office, according to a person familiar with the plans, as it seeks a competitive recruitment edge over some U.S. banks taking a more hardline approach. The lender’s move is being led by Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

 
Financial Products and Investments
 

Whistleblower Thought He Would Get a Big Payout. Instead He Got Nothing and Went Broke

Mark Maremont, The Wall Street Journal

John McPherson was almost certain he’d get rich from the Securities and Exchange Commission’s whistleblower program. Instead, he ended up bankrupt and embittered. Despite what the SEC called his “extraordinary and continuing” assistance in helping the agency shut down an alleged $1.4 billion investment scam, Mr. McPherson was notified last year that his whistleblower award would likely be close to zero.

 

Head of the second-largest U.S. public pension fund says active managers rarely added value

Leslie Picker, CNBC

The hedge fund model has been under attack for decades, at least since the financial crisis, but assets under management continue to surpass records. Christopher Ailman oversees the nation’s second largest public pension fund, CalSTRS, with $300 billion dollars under management.

 
Housing and GSEs
 

Housing crisis poses crucial test for Biden administration’s economic plans

Rachel Siegel, The Washington Post

The Biden administration mounted an aggressive push reshaping national housing policy in a span of 48 hours this past week, replacing a key regulator and pushing a flurry of other changes to try to address growing concerns within and outside the White House about a housing crisis for millions of renters and vulnerable Americans. On Wednesday, the White House named an acting director of the powerful Federal Housing Finance Agency, Sandra L. Thompson, who called out the lack of affordable housing and access to credit for many communities of color. 

 
Financial Technology
 

How Two Start-Ups Reaped Billions in Fees on Small Business Relief Loans

Stacy Cowley and Ella Koeze, The New York Times

Though Congress approved billions in aid for small companies to help them keep paying their employees during the pandemic, there was a big problem:It wasn’t reaching the tiniest and neediest businesses. Then two small companies came out of nowhere and, through an astute mix of technology and advertising — and the dogged pursuit of an opportunity that big banks missed — found a way to help those businesses. 

 

Venmo to Charge Users for Selling Goods and Services

Charity L. Scott, The Wall Street Journal

Venmo, the payments app owned by PayPal Holdings Inc., PYPL -1.23% will soon allow users to sell products and services on their personal accounts, for a fee. Under the app’s previous rules, users were prohibited from receiving money for business transactions through personal Venmo profiles. 

 

Bitcoin Leads Crypto Rally in Defiance of Regulatory Crackdown

Joanna Ossinger, Bloomberg

Bitcoin pushed higher Monday as proponents took the U.K.’s crypto crackdown in their stride after the token traded above a key technical level over the weekend. The largest cryptocurrency advanced 6.9% to $34,874 as of 10:32 a.m. in London, in a second day of gains. 

 

Bitcoin Slumps Toward Another ‘Crypto Winter’

Paul Vigna, The Wall Street Journal

New bitcoin investors felt the thrill of the digital currency’s most recent epic rally. Now, they are experiencing the other side of that ride.

 
Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives
 

Women Are Having Fewer Babies Because They Have More Choices

Jill Filipovic, The New York Times

American women are having fewer children and having them later than ever before — a demographic shift being met with significant consternation from the left and right alike. For conservatives, the fact that more women are putting off parenthood or forgoing it entirely is evidence of a dangerous decline in traditional family values.

 

Morning Consult