Top Stories

  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) signaled a willingness to revisit his stance against extending weekly $600 unemployment insurance benefits if it’s included as part of a compromise between the White House and congressional Democrats, potentially bucking members of his party to strike a deal on a new coronavirus aid package before Friday’s deadline. Democrats, who have previously balked at Republican proposals to resume jobless-aid payments at lower levels, acknowledged progress in the talks following a meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) noting that the parties are “still far away on a lot of the important issues, but we’re continuing to go at it.” (The New York Times)
  • Senior officials from the United States and China are scheduled to review their Phase 1 trade deal on Aug. 15, according to people briefed on the matter, with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He set to participate in the six-month review of the pact, likely via videoconference. Tensions between the countries have risen substantially since the deal was signed in January before the coronavirus ravaged the United States, and China, still dealing with the effects of the pandemic as well, remains far off pace from meeting its commitment of boosting imports of U.S. goods by $200 billion during the first two years of the agreement. (The Wall Street Journal)
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission has launched an investigation into Eastman Kodak Co.’s announcement last week of a $765 million government loan to produce drugs in its American factories, according to people familiar with the matter, a public disclosure that sent shares of the once-dominant photography company soaring to as high as $60. SEC regulators are looking into how Kodak handled the revelation of the loan, which leaked July 27, a day ahead of the official announcement, and led to a 25 percent jump in the company’s stock price that day. (The Wall Street Journal)

Chart Review

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

08/05/2020
PIIE event: “Europe’s financial system structures transformed by EU policies, Brexit, and COVID-19” 9:00 am
SEC Meeting 10:00 am
Senate Banking Committee makeup to consider the nominations of Hester Peirce and Caroline Crenshaw for SEC and Kyle Hauptman for National Credit Union Administration Board 2:00 pm
Urban Institute event: “Responding to the COVID-19 Crisis: Protecting Student Borrowers amid the Pandemic” 3:30 pm
08/06/2020
WHF/WHFF Partner Series: Seila Law v. CFPB Decision: Where do we go from here? 12:00 pm
Tax Policy Center event: “The Prescription: Fiscal Policy for the COVID-19 Economy” 12:00 pm
Bloomberg Equality: Race, Money and Wall Street 12:00 pm
AACF: The 2020 Election, China, Trade & American Leadership with Tom Ridge and Chuck Hagel 12:00 pm
Urban Institute event: “How Changes in Property Taxes Shape Communities: Two Case Studies” 3:30 pm
08/07/2020
BLS Employment Situation 8:30 am
View full calendar

Webinar – Most Loved Brands: What Drives Brand Love In A Year Like No Other

Join Morning Consult today at 1:00 PM ET for a webinar breaking down the results in this year’s edition of Most Loved Brands.

The webinar will explore which brands topped the list, what factors tend to drive brand love and how brands can excel in the COVID-19 era.

General

Black-Owned Businesses Hit Especially Hard by Coronavirus Pandemic, Study Finds
Amara Omeokwe, The Wall Street Journal

Businesses owned by Black people were hit especially hard by the coronavirus pandemic because of a combination of geography, limited reach of a key federal aid program and weaker ties to banks, a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds.

Argentina Debt Deal Illustrates Coronavirus Pandemic’s Blow to Emerging Markets
Amrith Ramkumar, The Wall Street Journal

Investors are bracing for more defaults and disruptions in emerging markets after Argentina’s deal with creditors highlighted the pandemic’s stress on many developing economies.

Treasury yields plumb new depths as bond investors fret
Colby Smith, Financial Times

Debt markets are signalling concern about the US economy even if equities are not.

Survey finds nearly one-third of rehired workers laid off again
Niv Elis, The Hill

Nearly a third of the laid off workers who were able to go back to their previous jobs have been laid off again, according to a Cornell survey released Tuesday.

A New Small Business Relief Proposal—Even Bigger Than The PPP—Could Be Part Of The Next Stimulus Bill
Sarah Hansen, Forbes

The RESTART Act was proposed back in May by Sens. Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) as a broader alternative to the Paycheck Protection Program, which at the time they said was insufficient for the needs of the small and mid-sized businesses hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic. 

Trump’s bid for a piece of Microsoft-TikTok deal could spur legal action
Alexandra Alper and Echo Wang, Reuters

President Donald Trump’s unprecedented demand that the United States get a cut of the proceeds from the forced sale of Chinese internet giant ByteDance’s short-video app TikTok is based on an interpretation of U.S law that regulatory lawyers say may be open to challenges.

Struggling U.S. manufacturers pivot to one product where sales are actually booming: facemasks
Jeanne Whalen, The Washington Post

With about half of U.S. states now requiring that masks be worn in public and most large retailers and grocery stores mandating them in their stores, masks are not just helping keep coronavirus at bay — they are providing a financial lifeline to many small businesses that might otherwise be looking into the abyss.

For the unemployed, rising grocery prices stretch budgets even more
Rachel Siegel, The Washington Post

The cost of groceries has been rising at the fastest pace in decades since the coronavirus pandemic seized the U.S. economy, leading to sticker shock for basic staples such as beef and eggs and forcing struggling households to rethink how to put enough food on the table.

The $600 unemployment boost is gone. That leaves some with just $5 a week
Greg Iacurci, CNBC

Hawaii, for example, pays $5 a week on the low end. It’s not much higher in other states like Louisiana ($10), Connecticut ($15), North Carolina ($15), Nevada ($16), Oklahoma ($16) and Delaware ($20), according to Labor Department data.

Europe Stocks, U.S. Futures Gain; Gold Tops $2,000: Markets Wrap
Anchalee Worrachate and Andreea Papuc, Bloomberg

European stocks climbed to a one-week high and U.S. futures rose as investors focused on U.S.-China trade discussions and American lawmakers making progress on an economic aid package.

Banking

Wells Fargo to dramatically cut consultancy spend after internal backlash
Stephen Morris and Laura Noonan, Financial Times

Chief’s plans target $1bn work done by consultants and will include cuts to thousands of jobs.

France suspends Morgan Stanley from its government debt sales
Tommy Stubbington and David Keohane, Financial Times

Move follows €20m fine last year for bank over alleged market manipulation.

Interest Rates Are Low, but Loans Are Harder to Get. Here’s Why.
Tara Siegel Bernard, The New York Times

Banks have tightened standards, becoming more choosy about their borrowers and asking a lot of questions.

Financial Products and Investments

KKR Reports Second-Quarter Profit Amid Financial-Market Recovery
Miriam Gottfried and Matt Grossman, The Wall Street Journal

KKR & Co. on Tuesday said its second-quarter profit rose year over year, marking a recovery for the private-equity firm after it logged a large first-quarter loss amid the market turmoil sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.

CME Settles Lawsuit With Regulator Over Leaks by Former Employees
Alexander Osipovich, The Wall Street Journal

Futures-exchange operator CME Group Inc. has agreed to pay a fine of up to $4 million to settle a long-running lawsuit with its regulator over accusations that former exchange employees leaked confidential trading information.

Older Investors Go for Gold, Younger Ones Bitcoin, JPMorgan Says
Joanna Ossinger, Bloomberg

Investors generally are interested in alternative assets but older ones are buying gold while younger ones like Bitcoin, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said. Millennials are embracing stocks, particularly technology shares, whereas older individuals are selling equities, they said.

Investors launch climate plan to get to net zero emissions by 2050
Simon Jessop, Reuters

An investor group managing more than $16 trillion on Wednesday launched the world’s first step-by-step plan to help pension funds and others align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement on climate change.

AIG Results Look Grim but Represent Progress
Telis Demos, The Wall Street Journal

American International Group put up an ugly $7.9 billion net loss in the second quarter. That stems largely from a $6.7 billion accounting loss related to the finalized sale of the vast majority of Fortitude, a specialized reinsurance company, to private-equity firm Carlyle Group and other investors. The sale brought in $2.2 billion of cash and improved AIG’s liquidity position—not a bad thing during a pandemic and economic crisis.

Housing and GSEs

GOP lawmakers embrace tenant protection as mass evictions loom
Katy O’Donnell, Politico

Republican lawmakers, alarmed at the prospect of a nationwide wave of evictions as the coronavirus batters the U.S. three months before the election, are starting to back the move to provide rental assistance to tenants.

A federal eviction moratorium has ended. Here’s what renters should know.
Renae Merle, The Washington Post

Millions of America’s renters could soon be pushed to the brink. The enhanced unemployment benefits that have kept many afloat have expired. The recession triggered by the pandemic is expected to be deeper and longer than initially forecast as coronavirus cases surge across the country.

Taxes

Business groups urge Congress to allow tax deductions for expenses paid with PPP loans
Naomi Jagoda, The Hill

A group of more than 170 trade associations is urging Congress to allow businesses to get tax deductions for expenses associated with loan forgiveness under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).

Blue-State Tax Break Becomes a Flashpoint in Coronavirus-Relief Bill
Richard Rubin, The Wall Street Journal

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D., N.Y.) knows his bid to repeal the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions is a long shot for inclusion in any final coronavirus-relief bill. He has seen the mockery from Republicans, who criticize Democrats for proposing a tax cut for the rich.

Financial Technology

Square Revenue Surges 64% on Cash App, Online Orders
Katie Roof and Kurt Wagner, Bloomberg

Square Inc. second-quarter sales jumped 64% on increased online business activity and a surge in the number of people using the company’s peer-to-peer payment app.

Bitcoin’s Pause May Serve as Consolidation Before Push Higher
Vildana Hajric, Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s surge over the past week got a lot of hearts pumping. Now technical indicators suggest enthusiasts could see it make another major move higher soon.

Companies Should Bolster Blockchain Controls, Risk Advisory Group Says
Jack Hagel, The Wall Street Journal

Companies should conduct thorough risk assessments and develop muscular internal controls to strengthen oversight of blockchain-technology projects, according to new guidance from the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission.

Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives

The WTO’s role is more important than ever
The Editorial Board, Financial Times

Pushback against globalisation has made a neutral referee even more valuable.

Research Reports

Double Jeopardy: Covid-19’s Concentrated Health and Wealth Effects in Black Communities
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed acute and deep-rooted connections between physical and economic health. Many of the same places hit hardest by the pandemic are reeling concurrently from the health crisis, business closures, and job losses. These communities are disproportionately communities of color

Morning Consult