Top Stories

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a collection of 18 research reports warning that climate change could pose significant financial risks such as home values declining, banks refusing to lend to flood-prone areas and communities losing tax money to fund climate change mitigation projects. The reports also included recommendations to push lenders to address climate change such as penalizing banks that do not support efforts to lower their exposure to disaster-prone areas as well as establishing a flood risk standard that can be used to set mortgage rates. (The New York Times)
  • The Trump administration’s tariffs ranging from 10 to 25 percent on European products such as  wine, cheese and olive oil are set to begin today, after the World Trade Organization ruled that the European Union illegally subsidized Airbus SE. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said the Trump administration might pursue a deal with the European Union on manufacturing and services but added that a deal that doesn’t include agriculture does not have strong support in Congress. (Washington Examiner)
  • White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow set up a meeting last week with President Donald Trump, former Federal Reserve Board candidate Stephen Moore and Republican economist Lawrence Lindsey, during which Moore and Lindsey warned Trump that the ongoing trade war with China could hurt the economy and Trump’s re-election campaign, according to people familiar with the meeting. The meeting preceded Trump’s announcement of a “phase one” trade deal with China, but a Trump administration official said the meeting did not influence the president’s decision and that the agreement was the result of work by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. (The Wall Street Journal)

Chart Review

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

10/18/2019
2019 IIF Annual Membership Meeting
House Financial Services Committee Task Force on Artificial Intelligence to Host Hearing Titled “AI and the Evolution of Cloud Computing: Evaluating How Financial Data is Stored, Protected, and Maintained by Cloud Providers” 9:30 am
10/19/2019
https://www.iif.com/Events/Meeting-Home-Page?meetingid={DBB919A3-1602-E911-80FD-000D3A01109B}
10/22/2019
SIFMA event: “C&L New York Regional Seminar”
AEI event: “Trump’s tax reform happened: Now what? A panel discussion on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” 2:00 pm
10/23/2019
Brookings event: “Economic policy innovations to combat climate change” 12:30 pm
Urban Institute event: “Reimagining Housing: Closing the Equity and Supply Gaps” 3:30 pm
View full calendar
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General

Fed Eyes Another Rate Cut, Weighs When to Stop
Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal

Federal Reserve officials are heading into their meeting in two weeks likely to cut interest rates while debating whether they have done enough for now to vaccinate the economy against growing risks of a sharper slowdown.

Fed Should ‘Probe’ for True Maximum Employment Level, Evans Says
Matthew Boesler, Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve should explore how low unemployment can go without provoking unwanted inflation and not put too much weight on estimates of the minimum, or “natural,” jobless level the U.S. economy can sustain, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said.

House Republican McHenry Asks for Details on Fed Balance-Sheet Operations
Kate Davidson, The Wall Street Journal

The top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee is seeking more details about the Federal Reserve’s plan to expand its asset portfolio and wants to know whether regulations played a role in recent dysfunction in very short-term lending markets.

Another day, another Capitol Hill grilling for CFPB’s Kraninger
Kate Berry and Neil Haggerty, American Banker

The head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Thursday took more heat from congressional Democrats over her reversing her position on the bureau’s constitutionality, the agency’s failure to investigate student loan servicers and the level of monetary penalties for lawbreakers.

Strategists worry US yield curve could invert again
Colby Smith, Financial Times

Recent bullish signals from bond market indicator are linked to short-term factors.

IMF sees some easing of U.S.-China tensions, urges reforms of global trade system
David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, Reuters

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday welcomed signs of a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions but said an urgent updating of trade rules was needed to restore strong growth to the global economy.

White House’s Kudlow ratchets up criticism of ‘deep state’ Fed
Alexandra Alper, Reuters

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Thursday suggested the U.S. central bank’s staff is part of a “deep state” and repeated his own and U.S. President Donald Trump’s call on Federal Reserve policymakers to reduce borrowing costs further.

EU leaders confirm Christine Lagarde’s appointment as head of ECB
Marine Strauss, Reuters

European Union leaders confirmed on Friday the appointment of Christine Lagarde as the new chief of the European Central Bank, replacing Mario Draghi from November 1.

Hensarling joins Milken Institute as senior fellow
Hannah Lang, American Banker

Former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling is joining the Milken Institute’s Center for Financial Markets as a senior fellow, the group announced Thursday.

Female CFOs brought in $1.8 trillion more than male peers
Bloomberg News

Companies looking for better financial returns should consider a female chief financial officer.

Democrats, Trump administration getting closer on USMCA
Sabrina Rodriguez and Megan Cassella, Politico

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that negotiations between the Trump administration and Democrats working to secure changes to the new North American trade pact are close to wrapping up, stressing that Democrats’ top concern is enforcing the deal.

Stocks Drift Amid Weak Earnings, China Growth Data: Markets Wrap
Todd White, Bloomberg

U.S. equity-index futures fluctuated alongside European stocks on Friday as earnings season rolled on and investors reviewed a mixed bag of economic data from China. The dollar edged toward its weakest close since July.

Banking

Wall Street banks see green light from Fed on reserves – sources
Matt Scuffham and Pete Schroeder, Reuters

Wall Street banks believe they are getting a green light from supervisors to hold more Treasury debt and less cash after last month’s volatility in overnight lending markets, three industry sources told Reuters.

Record Profits Are Still in Sight for Big Banks Despite Rate Cuts
Gwen Everett, Bloomberg

For the first time in four years, interest rates hurt instead of helped the biggest U.S. banks. It wasn’t enough to knock them off pace to top last year’s profit record.

U.S. boutique banks woo French bankers in Paris advisory push: sources
Pamela Barbaglia et al., Reuters

Several U.S. boutique investment banks are looking to hire senior staff in Paris in the wake of Britain’s departure from the EU and have poached bankers from France’s most established advisory firms, including Lazard, sources told Reuters.

Vaping deaths could slow pot banking momentum
Neil Haggerty, American Banker

A bill to enable banks to serve marijuana businesses may have hit an unexpected speed bump as policymakers try to respond to a spike in vaping-related deaths.

Hot Online Bank Startup Leaves Customers Without Access to Their Cash
Julie Verhage, Bloomberg

Chime, an online banking startup with more than 5 million customers, has been suffering an outage for much of past 24 hours that has left customers without access to their money. The startup blamed the disruption on an unspecified issue with a payments processor and said data was not at risk.

Financial Products and Investments

SEC opens debate on finding alternatives to IPOs
Miles Kruppa, Financial Times

US markets regulator hears arguments for enabling direct listings to raise capital.

SEC Seeks Ideas For Improving Trading in Small-Cap Stocks
Alexander Osipovich, The Wall Street Journal

Regulators are looking for ways to make the U.S. stock market a better place for trading shares in small- and medium-size companies.

Housing and GSEs

Mortgage rates rise sharply on positive developments surrounding Brexit and China
Kathy Orton, The Washington Post

A potential Brexit deal as well as progress in the trade talks with China caused a sharp rise in mortgage rates this week, continuing a volatile period for home loan rates.

Taxes

Warren’s surge brings new scrutiny to signature wealth tax
Naomi Jagoda, The Hill

Elizabeth Warren’s emergence as a front-runner in the Democratic presidential primary is bringing new attention, and scrutiny, to her proposed wealth tax.

Financial Technology

Facebook Warns Washington That Beijing Wins If Libra Plan Fails
Benjamin Bain and Kurt Wagner, Bloomberg

Facebook Inc. has a warning for those in Washington determined to derail the company’s plans for creating a cryptocurrency: doing so would be a huge win for China.

G-7 takes on Libra in study warning of ‘significant’ risks
Zachary Warmbrodt, Politico

A new breed of international digital currencies including Facebook’s Libra could have a significant negative impact on the financial system, regulatory officials from around the world said in a joint report to the G-7 Thursday.

Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives

Why Women Continue to Lose in the Financial Services Industry and How We Can Fix It
Sallie Krawcheck, Fortune

The highest-profile #MeToo news last week was further revelations of Matt Lauer’s alleged sexual misconduct, indicating that there is still the capacity to be surprised by these revelations. Less widely remarked-upon were lewd comments made by Ken Fisher, a self-described “self-made multi-billionaire,” and CEO of investment manager Fisher Investments (a company which holds $112 billion in client assets for public pensions and individuals), at a financial services conference.

Research Reports

Strategies to Address Climate Change Risk in Low- and Moderate-income Communities – Volume 14, Issue 1
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review offers strategies that address climate change risk in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. As these communities begin to grapple with a changing environment, strategic investments can increase resiliency and support adaptation while simultaneously advancing community development priorities.

Morning Consult