Top Stories

  • With congressional negotiations over another coronavirus relief package at a stalemate, President Donald Trump said he’d consider using executive orders to halt tenant evictions and lower payroll taxes, actions that would come after unemployment benefits for nearly 30 million workers expired last week, as did a federal pause on evictions. As for the stimulus talks, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the White House would consider a bigger aid package than what was previously considered, though Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, acknowledged that the White House and Democratic lawmakers remained far apart in their negotiations. (The Washington Post)
  • Days after announcing his intent to ban TikTok in the United States due to security concerns and later publicly opposing Microsoft Corp.’s potential purchase of the app, Trump said any acquisition of the social media platform should see the Treasury Department receiving “a very large percentage of that price,” suggesting that payment could come from the U.S. purchaser or the Chinese seller. It’s unclear how the president could force payment on either party involved in a sale, with the White House and Trump declining to provide further details, though Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella wrote in a blog post following a call with Trump that the company was committed to “providing proper economic benefits to the United States, including the United States Treasury.” (Financial Times)
  • Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr. signaled in a new federal court filing that his office has been looking into Trump’s business operations over potential cases of bank and insurance fraud, representing a more expansive inquiry into the Trump Organization than prosecutors have previously confirmed. The suggestion of a broader investigation by New York prosecutors was revealed in a filing that sought to compel Trump’s accountants to adhere to a grand jury subpoena seeking eight years of the president’s personal and corporate tax returns, a subpoena Trump has asked a judge to nullify. (The New York Times)

Chart Review

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

08/05/2020
PIIE event: “Europe’s financial system structures transformed by EU policies, Brexit, and COVID-19” 9:00 am
SEC Meeting 10:00 am
Senate Banking Committee makeup to consider the nominations of Hester Peirce and Caroline Crenshaw for SEC and Kyle Hauptman for National Credit Union Administration Board 2:00 pm
Urban Institute event: “Responding to the COVID-19 Crisis: Protecting Student Borrowers amid the Pandemic” 3:30 pm
08/06/2020
WHF/WHFF Partner Series: Seila Law v. CFPB Decision: Where do we go from here? 12:00 pm
Tax Policy Center event: “The Prescription: Fiscal Policy for the COVID-19 Economy” 12:00 pm
Bloomberg Equality: Race, Money and Wall Street 12:00 pm
AACF: The 2020 Election, China, Trade & American Leadership with Tom Ridge and Chuck Hagel 12:00 pm
Urban Institute event: “How Changes in Property Taxes Shape Communities: Two Case Studies” 3:30 pm
08/07/2020
BLS Employment Situation 8:30 am
View full calendar

Webinar – Most Loved Brands: What Drives Brand Love In A Year Like No Other

Join Morning Consult Wednesday, August 5 at 1:00 PM ET for a webinar breaking down the results in this year’s edition of Most Loved Brands.

The webinar will explore which brands topped the list, what factors tend to drive brand love and how brands can excel in the COVID-19 era.

General

U.S. Will Borrow Estimated $2 Trillion in Second Half of 2020, Treasury Says
Kate Davidson, The Wall Street Journal

The U.S. expects to borrow an additional $2 trillion in the second half of the year as federal spending ramps up to combat the coronavirus pandemic, the Treasury Department said Monday.

What Obama’s Stimulus Could Teach Congress About Big Bailouts
Michael Grunwald, Politico

The last time Washington debated how much stimulus to inject into a moribund economy, the mantra inside the White House was: The more, the better. It was 2009, the nation was reeling from the mortgage meltdown and President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser, Lawrence Summers—a physical as well as intellectual heavyweight—kept telling colleagues that worrying the government would spend too much money was like worrying he would lose too many pounds.

Rubio pressed by CEOs to think bigger on small business aid
Zach Warmbrodt, Politico

A bipartisan coalition of senators and top CEOs are demanding that the economic relief bill being debated by Congress include more generous aid to businesses, setting up a potential clash over spending and benefits for big corporations.

CEOs to Congress: A lot more small businesses will fail without new aid
Hamza Shaban, The Washington Post

The top executives of more than 100 companies — including Starbucks, Microsoft and Mastercard — and trade groups are calling on Congress to backstop small businesses facing economic calamity.

With Jobless Aid Expired, Trump Sidelines Himself in Stimulus Talks
Maggie Haberman et al., The New York Times

On the first day of the first full week when tens of millions of Americans went without the federal jobless aid that has cushioned them during the pandemic, President Trump was not cajoling undecided lawmakers to embrace a critical stimulus bill to stabilize the foundering economy. He was at the White House, hurling insults at the Democratic leaders whose support he needs to strike a deal.

Small Businesses Got Emergency Loans, but Not What They Expected
Stacy Cowley, The New York Times

The S.B.A.’s disaster relief program allows for loans of up to $2 million. But now they’re capped at $150,000 — and agency officials are saying little about why.

Rescue of Troubled Trucking Company With White House Ties Draws Scrutiny
Alan Rappeport, The New York Times

Members of a congressional oversight panel want to know how YRC Worldwide won a $700 million loan from the Treasury Department.

Leading WTO candidates back US bid for dispute system reforms
Alan Beattie, Financial Times

The two leading candidates to run the World Trade Organization have called for reform to address US criticisms that have paralysed the institution’s highest legal body and risk undermining the entire organisation.

Biden the Former Deficit Hawk Wants to Be Biden the Big Spender
Jenny Leonard and Tyler Pager, Bloomberg

Joe Biden, who’s spent decades warning about the dangers of budget deficits, will inherit one of the biggest in U.S. history if he becomes president—and he’ll be in no rush to pare it back.

The Pandemic Workday Is 48 Minutes Longer and Has More Meetings
Jeff Green, Bloomberg

The researchers compared employee behavior over two 8 week periods before and after Covid-19 lockdowns. Looking at email and meeting meta-data, the group calculated the workday lasted 48.5 minutes longer, the number of meetings increased about 13% and people sent an average of 1.4 more emails per day to their colleagues. 

When your second stimulus check could arrive—once Congress actually passes a new relief bill
Lance Lambert, Fortune

Both Senate Republicans and House Democrats support sending another round of $1,200 stimulus checks to Americans, however, they can’t come to an agreement for the broader stimulus bill in which the checks would be included. Democrats want more money for state governments and unemployment benefits, while Republicans want the extra $600 weekly federal unemployment benefits reduced and COVID-19 lawsuit immunity for businesses.

Stocks Lose Steam With Futures; Bonds Turn Higher: Markets Wrap
Todd White, Bloomberg

Stocks edged down in Europe alongside U.S. index futures while bonds turned higher as investors waited for word on whether fresh fiscal stimulus will get approvals in the world’s largest economy.

Banking

Covid Supercharges Federal Reserve as Backup Lender to the World
Serena Ng and Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal

When the coronavirus brought the world economy to a halt in March, it fell to the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep the wheels of finance turning for businesses across America. And when funds stopped flowing to many banks and companies outside America’s borders—from Japanese lenders making bets on U.S. corporate debt to Singapore traders needing U.S. dollars to pay for imports—the U.S. central bank stepped in again.

Google checking accounts: Why banks want in
Miriam Cross and Penny Crosman, American Banker

Google has now signed up eight financial institutions as checking account partners, once again raising the question — what’s in it for them? The partners are a diverse group — three global firms (BBVA, BMO Financial Group and Citigroup), two community banks, an online bank for college students and two credit unions. Six of those, including BBVA and BMO, were announced Monday.

Killer Mike Wants to Save America’s Disappearing Black Banks
Lananh Nguyen, Bloomberg

#BankBlack, a campaign promoted by Michael Render of Run the Jewels, has brought attention—and new customers—to the few remaining Black-owned financial institutions.

Financial Products and Investments

Argentina Nears $65 Billion Restructuring Deal With Bondholders
Ryan Dube and Andrew Scurria, The Wall Street Journal

Argentina’s government is finalizing an agreement with a group led by BlackRock Inc. and a handful of large U.S. investment firms to restructure about $65 billion in foreign debt and resolve the country’s third sovereign default in 20 years, said people involved in the talks.

Global Insurer AIG Swings to Quarterly Loss on Substantial Losses Tied to Pandemic
Leslie Scism and Maria Armental, The Wall Street Journal

Global insurance conglomerate American International Group Inc. swung to a loss for the second quarter driven in part by substantial costs tied to the pandemic as well as losses on the sale of most of its Fortitude Group Holdings LLC stake.

Beleaguered Public Pension Funds Make Record Gains in Second Quarter
Heather Gillers, The Wall Street Journal

Public pension funds set a 22-year performance record in the second quarter, recovering some but not all of their losses from the first quarter.

Hedge-Fund Launches Pick Up Despite Covid-19 Pandemic
Juliet Chung, The Wall Street Journal

Hedge-fund manager Gaurav Kapadia has raised one of the biggest, with more than $1 billion in committed capital for his new firm, XN LP, according to people familiar with the firm. XN invests in stock markets as well as in private companies and is up 7.4% after fees since its July 1 start, according to a person familiar with the fund. In a Monday letter to clients viewed by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Kapadia wrote he had started fundraising in February—“what now seems a lifetime ago.”

Housing and GSEs

Top GOP lawmaker urges regulators to extend relief for renters, banks
Zachary Warmbrodt, Politico

In a letter to housing and bank regulators that was obtained by POLITICO, Senate Banking Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) urged the officials to use their existing authority to continue eviction protections and looser lending rules — in effect doing an end run around Congress.

Taxes

Justice Department Is Scrutinizing Takeover of Credit Karma by Intuit, Maker of TurboTax
Justin Elliott and Paul Kiel, ProPublica

The Department of Justice is scrutinizing Silicon Valley giant Intuit’s $7 billion takeover attempt of Credit Karma, an upstart personal finance firm that became a competitor when it launched a free tax prep offering that challenges Intuit’s TurboTax product.

Defense contractor with billions in sales got millions in pandemic loans intended for small businesses
Aaron Gregg, The Washington Post

Atlantic Diving Supply, a Virginia Beach, Va.-based reseller of specialized military gear, is the latest organization whose receipt of taxpayer-backed loans through the Paycheck Protection Program has raised questions about a program launched in early April to help sustain employment at small companies through the economic crisis.

Financial Technology

Crypto Venture Fund Raises $110 Million From Universities
Olga Kharif, Bloomberg

Electric Capital, a San Francisco-based venture fund, said it will use $110 million raised from university endowments and other nonprofits to invest in cryptocurrencies and related businesses.

Filecoin to Spur Decentralized Data Storage in New Internet Era
Matthew Leising, Bloomberg

Rather than have websites and data stored on servers owned by Amazon or Google, Filecoin proposes to create peer-to-peer storage much like a Bitcoin transaction is conducted between two individuals. Filecoin was created by Protocol Labs and works in conjunction with a new underlying network that’s also peer-to-peer, making the system impervious to attacks on the internet like when Egypt shut down the web within the nation during the Arab Spring protests in 2011.

Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives

The HEALS Act Is Destined for More Fraud Without Immediate Action
Tom Miller, Morning Consult

The HEALS Act is attempting to breathe new life into the American economy and fuel the country’s post-pandemic rebound by providing another round of small-business aid. But unless it addresses an issue that was present in its Payroll Protection Program predecessor, the HEALS Act could usher in an onslaught of additional fraud.

Research Reports

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Special Report on Race and Inequality on Main Street
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

The poll finds that two in three (66%) minority-owned small businesses are concerned about having to permanently close their business versus 57% for non-minority small businesses. However, the gap has narrowed significantly from May, when 52% of non-minority-owned businesses said they were concerned about closing versus a staggering 78% for minority owned businesses.

Morning Consult