Morning Consult Finance: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Finance

Essential financial news & intel to start your day.
July 25, 2021
Twitter Email
 

It’s Fed week and everything else is in full swing. Let’s get into it. 

 

Which demographic do you think has the highest awareness of the “buy now, pay later” space? 

 

A: Gen Z

B: Millennials

C: Gen X

D: Baby boomers

 

Find the answer at the bottom of today’s newsletter. 

 

What’s Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee will meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting concludes. Why it’s worth watching: Policymakers have been fairly consistent in addressing inflation so far, saying it’s temporary and expected. I’ll be checking to see if that’s still the case, or if we start to see opinions change. The Fed is also expected to consider the pace at which it will scale back purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage securities, and could make timing announcements. 

 

It’s a busy week on the Hill. Here’s what’s worth watching: 

 

The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on cryptocurrencies on Tuesday. The panel’s chairman, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), has been critical of the cryptocurrency market in the past, noting the market’s recent volatility and risks associated with that. 

 

The Senate Finance Committee will have a hearing on potential retirement legislation on Wednesday that’s already drawn some industry attention. 

 

The main trade group on these issues, the Insured Retirement Institute, told me that it supports legislation that would encourage automatic enrollment in employer retirement plans: “Auto-enrollment is a proven method for increasing worker participation. Employees who are automatically enrolled can opt out at any time, but most do not as they watch their retirement savings grow over time,” said Dan Zielinksi, a spokesman for the group.  

 

The institute is also advocating for a provision that would “permit employers to contribute to a workplace retirement plan for employees making student loan payments.” 

 

The House Financial Services Committee will also hold a markup starting Wednesday

 

In another big event on Wednesday, Securities and Exchange Commissioner Gary Gensler will give a speech to the United Nations on responsible investment. Why it’s worth watching: Gensler is expected to outline the SEC’s regulatory agenda for 2021 in regards to climate change, so I’ll be listening for more specifics on the agency’s plan for climate disclosures. 

 

Also in Fed news, Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group annual meeting on Friday. Why it’s worth watching: Brainard, the only Democratic appointee left on the Fed board, is set to become more influential this year, so her views are worth tracking closely. She’s a favorite to replace Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles when his term expires this fall, making her the primary bank regulator in the Fed. Previously, she led the Fed’s efforts on the Community Reinvestment Act and has stuck fairly close to bank policy in the past, but her speech on Friday is titled “Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy,” and could give insight into her broader economic views. 

 

Events Calendar

 

Week in Review

The debate over Powell’s renomination heats up: The possibility Powell’s renomination is starting to come up, with broad support from top White House advisers, although those advisers haven’t come to a final decision on whether to rename Powell when his current term expires and aren’t expected to make a decision until September at the earliest, people familiar with the matter said. 

 

Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) criticized Powell on his approach to bank regulation. Brown said he supports Powell’s actions on monetary policy, but doesn’t “like what he’s done on regulation.”

 

So far, Powell and Biden appear to be working well together. Biden said he has “made clear” to Powell that the Fed should take “whatever steps” it thinks is necessary on inflation, underscoring the central bank’s independence. While both the Fed and the White House have said they believe inflation is temporary, and Biden reiterated that he doesn’t believe the country is experiencing runaway inflation today, Biden said the administration will “remain vigilant” about potential policy responses. 

 

What to do about housing: With the end of federal housing protections in sight, regulators and policymakers are increasingly thinking about how to mitigate a coming wave of mortgage defaults and rental evictions. The Biden administration announced on Friday programs allowing new modifications for borrowers with Federal Housing Administration loans, as well as other federally guaranteed mortgages, aiming to reduce these monthly payments up to 25 percent. 

 

For renters, it’s a more dire story. The Treasury Department has said that state and local officials gave out $1.5 billion in federal rental aid in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to $3 billion, or about 6.5 percent of the total help that Congress approved. In a House Financial Services Committee hearing, the panel’s ranking member, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), alleged “absolute, complete mismanagement” in the administration because of the slow disbursement.

 

Another, new infrastructure deal: After stops and starts throughout the week, a bipartisan group of senators could announce a $579 billion infrastructure deal as early as tomorrow. The bill would include delaying a Trump-era Medicare regulation that the Congressional Budget Office estimates could reduce federal Medicare spending by about $177 billion in a decade. 

 

Back to square one on CRA: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said it would rescind the Trump-era revamp of the Community Reinvestment Act, with Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu saying in a statement that the changes were a “false start.” Separately, the OCC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve said that together they will modernize the anti-redlining law, although people familiar with the matter said that won’t likely happen until 2022. 

 
Stat of the Week
 

52%

 

The share of voters who said the child tax credit shouldn’t be made permanent

 
The Most Read Stories This Week
 
 
Other Finance/Economy News
 
 







Morning Consult