Morning Consult Finance: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Finance

Essential financial news & intel to start your day.
January 29, 2023
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Good morning, finance readers.

 

This feels like the first time in a while that the “Week in Review” section isn’t full of crypto and FTX fallout news. In case you’re actually unhappy about that situation, let me offer you this sad tale of Sam Bankman-Fried’s time in a Caribbean prison. SBF told Forbes, “I thought that it was going to be like ‘The Shawshank Redemption.’” He suffered from no access to vegan food or internet, but apparently made some friends along the way. 

 

And I’ll ask you a crypto quiz question as well: How many percentage points has trust in cryptocurrency fallen from last January? Test your knowledge in this week’s MCIQ quiz.

 

What’s Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee begins its policymaking meeting Tuesday, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference Wednesday. Market watchers are expecting a smaller increase to the benchmark interest rates.

 

Former New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday

 

The Center for Economic and Policy Research will hold a panel discussion, titled “The Impact of US Policy on the Global Economy,” on Thursday

 

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times’ chief economics commentator, will discuss his new book, “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism,” on Tuesday. 

 

Week in Review

16 million approved for student loan relief: The Department of Education said Friday that more than 16 million federal student loan borrowers had been “fully approved” for $10,000 to $20,000 of debt relief each, pending approval of the White House’s student loan relief program by the Supreme Court. The court is set to hear arguments in the case on Feb. 28. (CNBC)

 

The debt ceiling tango: Policymakers began to reveal what steps they planned to take in the negotiations over how to handle the federal government approaching its borrowing limit. Last week’s performance, in order of appearance: 

  • White House officials said they plan to stay the course over their refusal to negotiate with Republicans on raising the federal debt ceiling, a strategy that they hope will ultimately pressure the GOP to present a plan that includes spending cuts, fueling internal divisions within the GOP and ultimately forcing Republicans to fold, according to people with knowledge of the internal conversations. (The Washington Post)
  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called on House Republicans to detail the proposed spending cuts that they would require in order to agree to raise the federal debt ceiling, saying that Democrats are ready to “move quickly” well in advance of the expected default date. In remarks on the Senate floor, Schumer called the GOP strategy “dangerous” and “destabilizing” and said Republicans have “an obligation” to show the public whether their proposed cuts include programs such as “Social Security or Medicare or child care or Pell Grants.” (The Hill)
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a letter to congressional leaders that as part of the extraordinary measures the Treasury is taking as the federal government nears its authorized borrowing limits, the department will stop making full payments into the the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Thrift Savings Fund, also known as the “G Fund.” (The Wall Street Journal)
  • House Republicans said they were working on a plan that would stretch the debt ceiling deadline to the end of the fiscal year, Sept. 30, and buy more time for negotiations, according to sources familiar with the talks, while passing the extension plan would not be contingent on any specific spending cuts and would suspend the debt ceiling rather than increase the total dollar amount of the debt limit. (Roll Call)
  • In a speech at a union facility in Virginia, President Joe Biden called out House Republicans over their economic agenda and unwillingness to raise the U.S. debt ceiling unconditionally, drawing attention to what the White House says are plans to cut earned benefits for Americans, such as Social Security and Medicare. (The Washington Post)
  • House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said in an interview for Donald Trump Jr.’s podcast that House Republicans “won’t touch Medicare or Social Security” in their negotiations with the White House over spending cuts and raising the federal debt limit. (The Hill)
  • Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), chair of the House Budget Committee, told Punchbowl News that the United States won’t default on its debt even if the debt limit is breached, pointing to an argument that the country may be constitutionally required to make payments and can’t default. But a Treasury Department spokesperson’s statement suggested disagreement, saying that any failure of the U.S. government to meet its payment obligations is “effectively a default.” (Punchbowl News)

 

Banks make online payments move: Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and four additional banks are launching a new online payments wallet to compete with PayPal and Apple Pay. The yet-to-be-named product will operate separately from Zelle after banks abandoned plans to use the peer-to-peer payments platform as an online payments tool for consumers when fraud concerns attracted the attention of lawmakers. (The Wall Street Journal

 

Brainard said to be frontrunner to direct NEC: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard is a top contender to lead the National Economic Council, though the White House is still conducting interviews and is also considering Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, former NEC Director Gene Sperling, former Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell, NEC Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, according to three people familiar with the deliberations. Biden is reportedly getting close to naming a successor for Brian Deese, who is expected to leave his post as director of the NEC soon, though an exact date has not been set. (The Washington Post)

 

SEC moves conflicts-of-interest rule forward: The Securities and Exchange Commission voted unanimously to propose a conflicts-of-interest rule that would prohibit traders in asset-backed securities from betting against the assets they sell to investors, a rule that Chairman Gary Gensler called an “unfinished step” in the regulatory response to the 2008 financial crisis. (Reuters)

 

Biden administration addresses renter woes: The White House released guidelines aimed at protecting renters from rising costs as part of its larger effort to create a “Blueprint for a Renters Bill of Rights.” As part of the plan, the Federal Trade Commission and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have agreed to collect information on unfair rental practices and the use of background checks, and the CFPB will also work to address the accuracy of background check data in credit reporting systems. (The Washington Post)

 
Stat of the Week
 

$442,100

The median sales price for new houses sold in the United States in December 2022, according to data compiled by the St. Louis Fed on Jan. 26. In December 2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic economy, the average price was $329,500.

 
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