Morning Consult Global: Pro-Russian Separatists in Donbas Call for Urgent Referenda as Ukrainian Forces Approach
 

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September 20, 2022
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The U.N. Is Broadly Popular

As the United Nations gathers for its annual General Assembly, majorities of adults in 27 countries out of the 43 where Morning Consult conducts daily surveys have favorable views of the organization. In the United States, views are split along partisan lines, with 64% of Democrats holding favorable views compared with 36% of Republicans and independents. Read more here from Sonnet Frisbie, Morning Consult’s managing director of geopolitical risk analysis for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Aleezah Qasim, our senior client services manager: Despite the Body’s Global Popularity, Republicans’ Views of the United Nations Will Constrain U.S. Engagement.

 

Today’s Top News

  • Ukraine’s rapid advance in the east has its forces positioned to strike in the Donbas region, where pro-Russian separatists have led puppet administrations since Russian troops first invaded Ukraine in 2014. The leaders of those separatist administrations are calling for urgent referenda to formally join Russia as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he is doing everything he can to keep his troops moving quickly. (Reuters)
  • New British Prime Minister Liz Truss admitted a free trade agreement with the United States will not happen for years, despite promises from previous Tory leaders that such a deal could be sealed quickly following Brexit. Truss says instead she will focus on building trade ties to India and the Persian Gulf, and that her meeting with President Joe Biden tomorrow will focus on Ukraine. (The Associated Press)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his counterparts from Armenia and Azerbaijan on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly to discuss measures to maintain the cease-fire between both sides after last week’s clashes killed at least 200. Blinken said “there is a path to a durable peace” after decades of tensions, but only he spoke to the press ahead of the meeting, with the Caucasian delegations remaining silent. (The Associated Press)
  • Iranian authorities have cracked down violently on protesters demonstrating against the death of Mahsa Amini, who was bludgeoned by morality police enforcing dress codes as she exited a subway station. At least five people have reportedly died during the crackdown, which has reportedly seen authorities open fire on demonstrators in Saqez and more deaths reported in Divandareh and Dehgolan as protests spread widely across the nation. (The Washington Post)

Happening today at U.N. General Assembly (all times local):

  • 9 a.m. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro opens debate.
  • 9:30 a.m. Chilean President Gabriel Boric.
  • 10 a.m. Colombian President Gustavo Petro.
  • 10:15 a.m. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speaks, first key player in the Ukraine war to give remarks.
  • 10:30 a.m. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov speaks following clashes with neighboring Tajikistan.
  • 12:30 p.m. French President Emmanuel Macron wraps up the morning session.
  • 6:45 p.m. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
  • 7 p.m. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
 

Chart Review

 
 

What Else You Need To Know

Multilateral
 

A Crisis of Faith Shakes the United Nations in Its Big Week

Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy 

From its failure to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine to its inaction on Myanmar and climate change, the institution is under fire from all sides.

 

EU, France see no better deal for Iran

John Irish and Parisa Hafezi, Reuters 

France said on Monday that there would not be a better offer for Iran to revive a nuclear deal with world powers and it was up to Tehran to decide now with the EU coordinator for the talks saying he saw little chance of progress this week.

 

Turkish banks suspend Russian Mir cards amid US sanctions pressure

Laura Pitel, Financial Times 

Private lenders İşbank and DenizBank stop use of payment network developed as Moscow’s alternative to western issuers.

 

Taiwan ‘proud’ of its efforts to help Ukraine, says President Tsai

Ben Blanchard, Reuters 

Taiwan is “proud” of its efforts to help Ukraine in the country’s struggle to defend itself and those efforts must continue, President Tsai Ing-wen told a conference taking place in New York.

 
Asia-Pacific
 

China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says

Niharika Mandhana, The Wall Street Journal 

‘If they want to bully and put ships around Taiwan, they very much can do that,’ said Vice Adm. Karl Thomas.

 

U.S. looks to trade former Afghan aircraft for counterterrorism help in Central Asia

Lara Seligman, Politico 

Afghan pilots flew almost 50 planes out of Afghanistan as the government collapsed last year.

 
Europe
 

Forest of the Dead 

Liz Cookman, Foreign Policy

Another mass grave in Ukraine reveals the horrors of Russia’s occupation.

 

Baltic states and Poland close doors to Russian tourists

Andrius Sytas, Reuters 

Four of the five European Union countries bordering Russia began turning away Russian tourists at midnight on Monday, saying they should not travel while their country is at war with Ukraine.

 

Liz Truss admits UK trade deal with US is not on the agenda

George Parker, Financial Times 

Prime minister’s assessment leaves hole in government’s post-Brexit trade strategy.

 

EU seeks emergency powers to prevent supply chain crisis

Javier Espinoza, Financial Times 

Proposed rules aim to ease pressures caused by events such as Ukraine war.

 

Hungary appeals for time, as EU weighs hefty fund freeze

Lorne Cook,The Associated Press 

Hungary needs time and is urging its European Union partners to be “tolerant,” the country’s justice minister said Tuesday, after the bloc’s executive branch recommended suspending billions of euros in funding over concerns about democratic backsliding and the possible mismanagement of EU money.

 

EU asylum agency accused of covering up ‘irregularities’

Raphael Minder and Henry Foy, Financial Times 

Anonymous employees allege nepotism and mishandling of harassment claims in complaint.

 

Germany to sign LNG contracts in UAE

Deutsche Welle 

As Chancellor Olaf Scholz planned to visit three gulf countries to discuss energy needs, Germany stepped up projects for LNG gas imports.

 

European Investment Bank resists pressure to fund gas projects

David Pilling and Camilla Hidgson, Financial Times 

Tensions grow between Europe and Africa over what constitutes a ‘just’ energy transition.

 

German nuclear reactor leak poses no safety threat but complicates plans

Markus Wacket et al., Reuters 

EON has informed the German government of a leak at the Isar 2 nuclear power plant which has not compromised security but could complicate the government’s winter energy plan, the environment ministry said on Monday.

 

McDonald’s Begins to Reopen Restaurants in Ukraine This Week 

Isabella Simonetti,The New York Times 

Three McDonald’s restaurants will reopen in Kyiv this week, a company spokeswoman said on Monday, fulfilling a pledge the chain made last month to bring employees back to work even as the war persists.

 
Latin America
 

Hurricane Fiona leaves more than 1mn without electricity in Puerto Rico

Aime Williams, Financial Times 

White House pledges support for territory that suffered billions in damages from 2017 storms.

 

Tsunami threat passes following powerful earthquake in Mexico

Karol Suarez et al., CNN

A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake rocked the southwestern coast of Mexico on Monday, killing at least one person, with shaking reported as far away as Mexico city.

 

Ecuador Reaches Deal With China to Restructure Debt

Sara Schaefer Muñoz and Ryan Dube, The Wall Street Journal 

Ecuadorean President Guillermo Lasso says restructuring $4.4 billion of outstanding debt will save the country $1 billion from 2022 to 2025

 

Mexico Has Tequila. Peru, Pisco. In Colombia, a Push for Viche, Now Legal.

Genevieve Glatsky and Julie Turkewitz, The New York Times 

Invented by formerly enslaved people, viche, a cane sugar liquor, was long banned, a sort of Colombian moonshine. Now, it’s a symbol of the country’s often ignored Afro-Colombian culture.

 
Middle East and Africa
 

UN: Pledge goal reached for averting oil disaster off Yemen

Ellen Knickmeyer, The Associated Press 

The United Nations said Monday it has finally reached a pledging goal to raise money to remove 1 million barrels of oil from a long-stranded and rusting oil supertanker off Yemen, moving closer toward averting an explosion or leak that could wreak environmental and economic disaster.

 

Egypt Feels Pain of Global Disruptions Wrought by War and Pandemic

The New York Times 

The country’s economy has been very hard hit by cascading crises which have disrupted worldwide trade.

 
North America
 

Pentagon Orders Review of Its Overseas Social Media Campaigns

Julian E. Barnes and Sheera Frenkel, The New York Times 

The move comes after Twitter and Facebook shut down misleading accounts that they determined were sending messages to promote U.S. foreign policy.

 

White House: American freed by Taliban in prisoner swap

Myah Ward, Politico 

An Afghan drug trafficker jailed by the United States was also freed and returned to Kabul.

 

Federal Reserve under pressure to back up hawkishness with rate projections

Colby Smith, Financial Times 

US central bank to publish first ‘dot plot’ since June after months of persistently high inflation.

 
Opinions and Perspectives
 

Japan’s national security strategy update already looks outdated

Masahiro Matsumura, Nikkei Asia 

First policy restatement since 2013 unlikely to reflect changed environment.

 

UNGA is dead. It’s the sideshows that really matter.

Ryan Heath, Politico

The U.N. General Assembly is now officially the least interesting part of New York’s two-week, do-gooder festival.

 

Why the current oil boom for Arab states may be their last

Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN 

The oil boom brought about by the Ukraine war has made energy-rich Middle Eastern countries extraordinarily wealthy once again. But experts warn that it may be the last such upswing.

 

Why free traders are on the defensive in the European Commission

Valentina Pop, Financial Times 

Supply chain emergency powers are latest example of interventionist policy shift.

 
Morning Consult