Morning Consult Global: What’s Ahead & Week in Review
 

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September 25, 2022
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Good morning and happy Sunday, after a week dominated by news from the 77th U.N. General Assembly. Some commentators highlighted the body’s bloat and sometimes sluggish responses to the crises brought up by world leaders as evidence of bureaucratic dysfunction, and they certainly have a point. But people who benefit from U.N. programs might feel less antipathy. 

 

That brings us to our question this week: In how many countries out of the 43 surveyed by Morning Consult do majorities of adults have positive views of the United Nations?

 

A. 7

B. 17

C. 27

D. 37

 

Read to the end of the newsletter to find out. 

 

What’s Ahead

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ordering of 300,000 reservists to mobilize for service in Ukraine is the clearest sign yet that Russia is prepared to take drastic measures to carry on its war effort. Thousands of potential conscripts began fleeing Russia — some within minutes of hearing Putin’s pre-recorded TV announcement.

 

What we are watching: Will Russians bear to see their sons drafted or sent into exile? Over 1,300 people were arrested in anti-war protests following the draft announcement, but the demonstrations do not appear to threaten to overwhelm security forces. Also, the government’s claims to only be mobilizing reservists with past combat experience may be enough to keep the kettle from boiling over for now. We will keep an eye out for signs that Moscow feels it may have strayed too far over the line.

 

We’re also interested to see how Russia attempts to leverage the sham referendums carried out in occupied portions of Ukraine to provide a risible fig leaf for annexation by Moscow. It may serve as a pretext for Russia to yet again harshly retaliate against Ukrainian civilians if Moscow can claim Kyiv’s forces are invading Russian territory, including a nuclear strike if Putin’s bravado is to be believed. The European Union, for its part, looks determined to stick together through another round of Russian provocations, planning to roll out yet more sanctions in response to the threats. We will be watching for signs Putin may fold his nuclear bluff.

 

It’s not all kumbaya in the E.U. camp, however, as Hungary announced it will poll its citizens on E.U. sanctions on Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban seems to be betting his control of the media narrative might allow him to go to Brussels with an ersatz popular mandate — flimsy as it may be — to help him get out of sanctions that put him in an awkward position with his friend Putin. 

 

What we are watching: Does the European Union play hardball with Budapest? Brussels has already set in motion plans that could cut $7.5 billion in funds set aside for Hungary over the latter’s democratic backsliding and violations of rule of law. After finding Hungary-shaped roadblocks around virtually every effort to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, Brussels finally seems to be tapping the last of its patience for Orban and we will be interested to see whether they can manage to foist the collective weight of its member states to get Budapest in line.

 

But the more serious threat to E.U. unity is today’s election result in Italy that looks likely to put the far-right Giorgia Meloni in power. Voting is still underway, but if pre-election polling holds up, her Brothers of Italy party is expected to form the largest bloc in parliament with about 25% of the vote.

 

What we are watching: Will Hungary find an ally in Meloni? She has already criticized the European Union for putting pressure on Hungary and blamed the bloc for forsaking unity amid the war in Ukraine. Her rationale, topsy-turvy as it may be, does suggest that she doesn’t feel comfortable totally breaking from the E.U. position, much less aligning to Russia overtly, but we will be watching for her tune to change as the weather gets chilly. 

 

Week in Review

In lieu of our regular Week in Review segment, we bring you a lightly edited and condensed interview on the ongoing protests in Iran with award-winning journalist Kourosh Ziabari, an Iran reporter for the Asia Times who is currently in New York covering the United Nations as one of the 2022 Dag Hammarskjöld Fund for Journalists fellows.  

 

Matthew Kendrick: The demonstrations were kicked off by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody. Could you help us understand why her death in particular caused so much outrage? What do ordinary people experience in their interactions with morality police?

 

Kourosh Ziabari: This is not an isolated incident, morality police confront women daily and resort to excessive force to correct their appearance, taking them to facilities where, every day, hundreds of women are intimidated and harangued about their appearance if it is deemed not conservative enough to comply with the requirements of the Islamic Republic, which are quite fluid and arbitrary. 

 

Mahsa Amini was a minority girl from an underprivileged region in Iran, just 22 years old, traveling to Tehran with her brother, and her innocent life was taken over a headscarf. People are outraged because they have been seeing this pattern repeated over and over. Morality police create a climate of intimidation and fear, not only for women; everybody feels unhappy seeing them roaming the streets, giving warnings and apprehending people. 

 

It reminds me of what happened in the United States after the killing of George Floyd by the Minneapolis police: People became more conscious of racial disparities. Right now in Iran, there is a similar consciousness emerging around the idea of civil liberties and women’s rights. 

 

Her death was the culmination of nearly one year of agitprop by the Raisi administration, who are determined to use the idea of compulsory hijab to ratchet up support among hard-liners. We saw the same trend in 2005 when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power; trying to concentrate excessively on how women dress to distract public attention from daily corruption and mismanagement, and an inability to run the country. 

 

MK: Have you been able to communicate with your loved ones in Iran? What can you tell us about the situation on the ground?

 

KZ: I have been able to have a brief phone conversation with my parents in Rasht in northern Iran. I have not been able to reach my wife on the phone but she was able to send me an email. They’re in the same city in different neighborhoods, but the government’s internet disruptions are a bit shabby and some places are more affected than others. 

 

Rasht has been one of the epicenters of the protest movement, and a very volatile and precarious situation is underway. People in the streets are not currently prepared to relent, and the security forces are not prepared to show leniency. They’re cracking down with violence and countermarches, continuing a vicious cycle that pits society against itself, and the Iranian government does not comprehend the cost it is imposing on itself and society by continuing it.

 

MK: Is there any role for the international community to play?

 

KZ: It’s very delicate, because the international community should act in such a way that it doesn’t inadvertently produce an excuse for Iran’s hard-liners to amplify the pressure. Whenever there’s international outcry against Iranian human rights violations, the Iranian government normally responds by actually cracking down harder, because it produces a pretext for the government to claim these protesters are funded or backed by foreign agents. 

 

U.S. actions tend to be symbolic but they don’t always produce the desired outcome. For example, the new sanctions on the morality police: That really doesn’t change anything because Iran’s morality police do not have any U.S. connections. They don’t have financial interests here. They don’t travel here. They don’t have real estate here. So what could possibly be the consequences of sanctions?

 

Neighboring countries have a major role to play because they are the ones with which the Islamic Republic maintains more cordial ties. A phone call by the foreign minister of Qatar or the prime minister of Turkey to express concern can be much more useful than one from a Western foreign minister. 

 

And there’s something that I would like to add to our conversation: As a practicing Muslim, I find it really troubling that an Islamic traditional practice is being exploited and weaponized by the government of Iran to marginalize and intimidate women. The government is not concerned about safeguarding religious tradition, because if they were really concerned, they wouldn’t have resorted to force and violence, which violate the basic Islamic principle that there is no compulsion in religion. When they commit these abuses in the name of Islam, they’re doing divine faith a disservice.

 

You can follow Kourosh on Twitter @KZiabari and read his work in Asia Times.

 
Stat of the Week
 

27%

 

That is new British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ approval rating just one week into office. The honeymoon period looks like it never even had a chance to get off the ground, as Truss has immediately become one of the least popular leaders on Morning Consult’s Global Leader Approval Tracker, ahead only of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. 

 
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