China finds peacemaker hat uncomfortable: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow dominated headlines early in the week, but little substantive came from meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin backed the same 12-point plan toward peace Beijing has been touting for a year to little interest, but only after language about respecting international territorial integrity was removed. Hard to see how that will play well in Kyiv.
And Putin didn’t get what he wanted either: Xi was conspicuously quiet about approving a natural gas pipeline from Siberia to China despite the Kremlin’s best efforts to portray the deal as nearly closed.
What are we watching: Are there developing tensions in the relationship? The highly choreographed declarations of friendship were meant to demonstrate the strength of the relationship, but under the surface cracks are showing up. China’s association with Russia, as its peace plan demonstrates, stymies its ambitions to build diplomatic clout in Europe and puts Beijing in the position of wading into issues it would rather avoid like Ukraine instead of building on potentially more fruitful diplomatic successes such as the Saudi-Iran deal.
But to understand why Xi made the visit to Moscow, just look at what was happening 500 miles southwest, when Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made his unannounced visit to Kyiv. Unlike Xi, Kishida has had no problem pledging concrete support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And then he turned around and promised Poland aid to boot, in recognition of Warsaw’s outsized efforts to back Kyiv. From Beijing’s perspective, it looks like Tokyo is not only tightening relationships within the Indo-Pacific, but building friendships further afield in the hopes generosity will not be forgotten if Japan finds itself hard pressed. In other words, it looks like China’s avenues to reduce its isolation continue to shrink.
We’re watching for signs that China may try to get a few more flies with honey, and back off, for example, from bellicose rhetoric against American freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. The Philippines seems all but entirely in Washington’s corner now, and a threatening posture could push Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia to seek a degree of shelter in better relations with the United States.
Biden and Trudeau play Haiti hot potato: President Joe Biden’s visit to Canada was largely productive, resulting in an agreement that will govern growing numbers of migrants entering Canada via informal crossings. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Biden have a relationship dating back to the latter’s time as vice president, but their personal rapport wasn’t enough to solve the most pressing problem facing the Western Hemisphere.
Biden was hoping Ottawa might find an appetite to lead an armed intervention in Haiti and reinforce Haitian police forces that have been virtually expelled from the capital by gangs. Trudeau, however, has repeatedly stated that he does not see intervention in Haiti to be in Canada’s interest.
What we are watching: Can Biden find anyone to take the lead? All of the countries that might be obvious candidates — the United States, Canada, Brazil and France — have troubled histories in Haiti and might only exacerbate the situation.
And few alternatives seem viable. Neighboring Dominican Republic has a long history of terrible relations with Haiti involving multiple mutual invasions and occupations, so despite its relative strength and stability, it must be ruled out. Mexico and Colombia both have well-developed defense sectors, but they are hard-pressed fighting the drug trade and are led by left-wing politicians who have vocally opposed interventionism. Chile is relatively wealthy and deals with some social problems stemming from Haitian migration, but it has little capacity to project military power, while Argentina’s economic nightmare precludes any thought of Buenos Aires shouldering the burden.
To paraphrase Tolkien, Haiti’s list of allies grows thin. But as Daniel Runde, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in the Hill, there is one wealthy country with a strong military and good relations with Haiti that offers an intriguing possibility: Taiwan.
Haiti is one of the last countries in the world to recognize Taiwan instead of China, and Taipei has a chance to demonstrate that its friendship carries weight by helping stabilize and re-establish democratic control. The deployment could also build considerable goodwill among the major Western powers and demonstrate commitment to the international order by tackling a tricky problem — and give Taiwanese field officers some combat experience that could come in handy sooner rather than later.
That said, I’d be skeptical Taipei will be in a position to take any action before elections scheduled for January 2024. Promising to deploy troops overseas is rarely a winning campaign tactic. We’ll be watching for signs of interest in Taipei, and for how the White House might attempt to stop the hemorrhage in Haiti in the shorter term.
Assad creeps toward rehabilitation: Syrian and Saudi officials announced they are close to resuming formal ties after talks brokered by Russia, which could be the first step in bringing Moscow’s best ally in the Middle East back into the diplomatic fold.
What we are watching: How does the United States respond to Saudi wheeling and dealing? The American position in the Middle East is shifting rapidly, as Riyadh for the second time pursues closer ties with American foes in talks brokered by American rivals. Meanwhile, the Saudis seem to have cooled quite a bit on rapprochement with the Israelis, if their demands over normalization of that relationship are anything to judge by. U.S. relations with Turkey continue to be strained — in no small part because of U.S. support for Kurdish groups in Syria — while American efforts to calm unrest and soften Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s overhaul of the judicial system have been essentially futile.
We’ll be watching for signs that the United States may begin rethinking its positions and strategy in the Middle East, though taking a harder line with either Israel or Saudi Arabia seems unlikely to bring about desired results. The Turkish elections in May will play a crucial role in determining America’s position in the near term, as a change in government could open the door to closer relations with Ankara.