Morning Consult Washington Presented by EdChoice: What’s Ahead & Week in Review
 

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Essential U.S. political news & intel to start your day.
September 18, 2022
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Good Sunday morning from Washington. After launching our midterm elections tracker ahead of the November contests, our geopolitical risk analysis team is at it with a new page tracking sentiment among Americans about foreign policy issues. I wanted to start there with today’s question: Which of the following are voters least likely to rank as a top foreign policy issue facing America?

 

A. Protecting democracy globally

B. Terrorism

C. Securing critical supply chains

D. U.S.-China relations

 

Read to the bottom of today’s newsletter to find out the answer.

 

What’s Ahead

Government funding: As the House and Senate return to Washington, the biggest thing on lawmakers’ plates is the Sept. 30 government funding deadline, one week from Friday.

 

What we’re watching: Along with spending requests from the Biden administration for disease and disaster responses that face GOP objections, congressional leaders are facing major pressure from progressives to walk away from a promise to attach permitting reform legislation pushed by Sen. Joe Manchin to a continuing resolution that brought the West Virginia Democrat on board for passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. As the funding deadline approaches, the big question is how far the left is willing to go to buck Manchin, as Politico reported, which will decide whether Democrats will need to secure support from House Republicans or strip the permitting measure altogether.

 

What’s now way ahead: Senators are punting a near-term vote on popular legislation that would codify same-sex marriage rights nationwide, citing pre-election wariness as a hurdle for getting enough Republican votes to overcome a legislative filibuster, as well as a ban congressional stock trading.

 

What we’re watching instead: While the marriage issue is going to the back burner in the Senate, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said her chamber will vote on the stock trading legislation by the end of the month, forcing a pre-election vote on a good-government measure after a lot of negative attention from publications such as Insider and, more recently, The New York Times. Still up in the air: What the House plans to do with votes on public safety legislation and reforms to the Electoral Count Act.

 

House Republican rollout: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is expected in Pittsburgh tomorrow to officially lay out his party’s “Commitment to America” agenda.

 

What to expect: According to Axios, the fairly broad message describes Republicans as committed to “an economy that is strong,” “a nation that is safe,” “a future that is free,” and “a government that is accountable,” covering a range of issues including inflation, immigration, free speech and elections. One astute observer, Rachel Cohen, who covers policy for Vox, noted that those looking for a little more meat on the bone ahead of a potential GOP House majority next year would do well to look into the Republican Study Committee’s 122-page “Blueprint to Save America” released earlier this year.

 

Jan. 6 committee: The House’s select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack is tentatively expected to hold a hearing Sept. 28 (next Wednesday), per its chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who said the subject matter has yet to be decided.

 

What we’re watching: Beyond the public meeting, the panel is also due to issue a preliminary report on its findings as soon as next month, which is sure to be a lightning rod in the press and elevate negative news about former President Donald Trump. If the summer is precedent, that could energize Republican voters, who tend to become more excited to vote when Trump is getting prominent bad press, according to our midterm elections tracker. However, ahead of November, it could also worry independents, who came to view Trump more negatively in recent months amid a spate of hearings, as I documented in July.

 

Biden on world stage: Biden is in the United Kingdom ahead of Queen Elizabeth II’s state funeral tomorrow at Westminster Abbey. After his visit across the pond, he’ll return to the United States, where the high-level portion of the 77th session of the U.N. General Assembly begins on Tuesday.

 

What we’re watching: It will likely mark Biden’s final foreign policy foray ahead of the midterms, placing him, as Politico put it, “amid an audience where he arguably shines brighter than he does at home.” In New York, he’ll rally the world on behalf of Ukraine, and according to Politico, he’ll also meet with Liz Truss, the new British prime minister. 

  

Tune in: And a programming note for you: Biden has filmed an interview with “60 Minutes” to air tonight as part of the premiere of the program’s 55th season.

 

What we’re watching: Per CBS, the president discussed the economy, the midterms and the war in Ukraine with Scott Pelley in his first sit-down interview with the legendary news program since taking office. 

 

Week in Review

Immigration

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis struck a nerve when he chartered two planes carrying undocumented migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard — raising humanitarian concerns for those dropped off on an island, who were moved on Friday, as well as legal concerns for himself about his compliance with a state law.

 

It painted the perfect picture of Republican governors’ recent ploy of transporting migrants from border states to more liberal parts of the country — this time to the tony summer island enclave, whose vacation homeowners include former president and first lady Barack and Michelle Obama.

 

The eye-catching move, which he appeared to telegraph in a meeting with top Republican donors last weekend, elicited outrage from the left, and as a result,  earned the potential 2024 presidential aspirant a good deal of conservative praise for “owning the libs.” 

 

It also elevated an issue that’s second only to the economy on the minds of the GOP base ahead of the midterm elections, but is less salient with the overall electorate, which already doubts the GOP’s governing competency despite being more likely to trust Republicans to handle immigration.

 

The question of how to respond to the GOP governors’ controversial tactic is also a divisive one in the White House. 

 

As some met to consider legal options to respond to the governors’ actions, others are pushing Biden to respond similarly and move migrants to northern communities to alleviate some pressure on the front-line populaces predominantly affected by the rising number of people crossing the U.S. border with Mexico, according to NBC News. The Biden administration also reportedly pushed Mexico to play ball and accept more migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela under the same COVID-19 public health concerns the president ended. 

 

Trump investigations

 

A federal judge in Florida appointed New York federal judge Raymond Dearie as special master to review documents seized by the FBI at former Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Dearie — who was deemed as acceptable by the Justice Department — has until Nov. 30 to complete his review, but was instructed to prioritize “approximately 100 documents marked as classified,” setting up the possibility that prosecutors may be able to regain access to them. 

 

The ruling — which came after the National Archives said it wasn’t sure whether all of Trump’s presidential records had been returned — marked at least a temporary victory for Trump, delaying the issue past the midterms. In the event things don’t work out the way Trump wants them to, he warned conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt there would be “problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we’ve never seen before,” a not so subtle suggestion that his supporters might become violent.

 

Beyond the documents matter, the 45th president is playing investigative whack-a-mole as he faces several high-profile queries, including the Justice Department’s sweeping investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn Biden’s 2020 presidential election victory. 

 

According to The Washington Post, the Justice Department has ramped up its criminal probe into actions that led to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, issuing dozens of subpoenas for information from more than 100 people, including efforts to appoint “alternate” slates of electors. Federal investigators have already secured cooperation from former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, per CNN, marking its highest-ranking known catch from the Trump administration so far.

 

On Capitol Hill, the Jan. 6 committee’s investigation is also yielding some results, receiving “thousands of exhibits” from Secret Service agents in response to a subpoena this summer — setting up new potential revelations this fall.

 

ICYMI

 

  • Conservative Don Bolduc, who ran a campaign aligned with Trump’s political movement, beat moderate state Senate President Chuck Morse for the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) in November, marking a likely blow to the GOP’s effort to unseat her.
  • On the House side in the Granite State, former Trump aide Karoline Leavitt defeated Matt Mowers, a former Trump administration official who was backed by House Republican leadership, for the GOP nod to challenge vulnerable Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. 
  • New York Rep. Elise Stefanik said she will run for re-election as chair of the House Republican Conference, setting up a contest with Florida Rep. Byron Donalds for the No. 3 Republican leadership spot next year.
  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) joined a number of Republicans in panning a proposed 15-week nationwide abortion ban introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), saying that he and other senators prefer the issue to be handled at the state level. The legislation is viewed as a distraction by a number of Republican strategists, though some believe it gives conservatives a chance to energize their base to counter Democratic energy on abortion rights.
Stat of the Week
 

25%

 

That’s the share of British adults who say the monarchy is out of date and should be phased out. Read more here from my colleague Matt Kendrick: With Charles on the Throne, Many Younger Britons Say It’s Time to Move On From the Monarchy.

 

 
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