MORNING CONSULT POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2020 U.S. Election Tracker: Trump Fails to Make Up Ground in Battleground States; Key Senate Races Are Tightening

Morning Consult is conducting over 4,000 daily surveys with likely voters on the presidential election, congressional elections, candidate favorability, and more. This page will feature the latest updates to that data. The most recent national data is based on surveys conducted Oct. 18-20 among 15,821 likely voters, and the latest state-level data is based on surveys conducted Oct. 11-20, with between 788-4,685 likely voters per state. 

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THE LATEST: OCT 22, 2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 9 percentage points while Democrats have a 7-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

TOPLINE FIGURES

National presidential head-to-head: Biden 52%, Trump 43% ( Biden +9)

State-level presidential head-to-head:

  • Biden leads: CO, FL, MI, MN, PA, WI
  • Trump leads: SC
  • Within the margin of error: AZ, GA, NC, OH, TX

National presidential favorability (net): Biden +7, Trump -13

Generic congressional ballot: Democrats 50%, Republicans 42% (Dems +7*)

Senate elections:

  • Democrat leads: CO, MI, NC
  • Republican leads: TX
  • Within the margin of error: AZ, GA, SC
*The margin does not match the displayed vote share due to rounding.

RECENT INSIGHTS

Key Senate races are tightening as Nov. 3 approaches: Democrats enter the final stretch of the campaign with leads in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina, while Democrat Jaime Harrison has taken a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. In Texas, GOP Sen. John Cornyn still leads Democrat MJ Hegar, though the senior senator’s edge in the contest has been almost cut in half since earlier this month. Read the story.

As the race enters crunch time, Trump fails to make up ground in key states: Since Morning Consult’s previous round of state-level polling (conducted Oct.2-11), the presidential race has not shifted outside the margin of error in a single battleground state. With less than two weeks before Election Day, the lack of movement presents a grave problem for President Trump, who is running out of time to make up ground in key states such as Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin, the races most likely to tip the election. In nine of the 12 states tracked, the race has shifted slightly in Biden’s favor over the last 10 days, although each of those shifts is within the respective margin of error. View the data

Most voters who went third party in 2016 are backing Biden over Trump this year: Daily tracking of likely voters conducted Oct. 16-18 found 53 percent of likely voters who opted for someone other than a major-party nominee in 2016 said they’re backing Biden in this year’s election, while 21 percent said they’re supporting Trump. Another 14 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate again, while 12 percent are still undecided. Read the story.

Voters are more concerned about Trump’s behavior around the election than Biden’s: More than half of voters (53 percent) are concerned that President Trump will refuse to step down from office if he loses, compared with 37 percent who are concerned about Biden refusing to concede. Likewise, 52 percent are concerned that Trump will prematurely declare victory versus 36 percent who expressed anxiety  that Biden will do the same. Read more. 

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UPDATED: OCT 22, 2020

National Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking
Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote?" Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.
Demographic Breakouts

UPDATED: OCT 22, 2020
State-Level Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking
Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote?"

UPDATED: OCT 22, 2020
Presidential Candidate Favorability Tracking
Respondents are asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of each candidate. Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.

UPDATED: OCT 22, 2020
Generic Congressional Ballot Tracking
Respondents are asked, "If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?" Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.

UPDATED: OCT. 22, 2020
Senate Battleground State Tracking
Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 U.S. Senate election were being held today, for whom would you vote?"

Methodology

The latest national results reflect surveys conducted Oct. 18-20 among 15,821 likely voters. Morning Consult’s reported results reflect data among likely voters based on a 3-day moving average with a margin of error of +/- 1%. Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of around 4,000 likely voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2016 presidential vote history.

The latest state-level results reflect surveys conducted with between 788-4,685 likely voters per state from Oct. 11-20. For our state-level polling, weights are applied to each state separately based on age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density, presidential vote history and — for a subset of states — race by education as well as an age-by-gender interaction.

Download the full data set for the latest state-level release.

Learn more about Political Intelligence here and more about Morning Consult’s methodologies here.

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