Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker
Tracking the State of U.S.-Europe Relations

Updated: Nov. 14, 2022 | By Sonnet Frisbie

The trans-Atlantic economic relationship is the largest in the world in terms of transaction value, and among the most complex. Understanding this relationship is key to predicting the trajectory of trade and capital flows, regulation, technological cooperation, and economic statecraft.

The Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker aims to help multinationals, financial services providers, policymakers and other interested parties better understand the trajectory of public opinion surrounding U.K.-U.S. and E.U.-U.S. relations. It also aids in assessing the implications for the trans-Atlantic economy, including through cross-border trade and capital flows, trans-Atlantic policy and regulatory coordination, and supply chains for consumer goods and critical tech.

Read the latest Trans-Atlantic Relations Report for further in-depth insights, and sign up for Morning Consult Global, our daily geopolitical email briefing.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the most important influence on trans-Atlantic favorability in 2022. The trans-Atlantic alliance, and NATO specifically, continue to benefit from a “rally around the flag” effect in the United States and Europe. But U.S. developments on gun violence and abortion have driven downswings in European favorability toward the United States, bringing it closer to pre-invasion levels.
  • Support for energy sanctions against Russia is on a downward trend. Republicans are more skeptical of energy sanctions than Democratic or independent voters, but are about in line with the most hawkish European countries.
  • Americans want cooperation on energy, product safety, export controls and environmental protection. But several other policy issues with direct relevance to the trans-Atlantic economy fall near the bottom of the list, like digital transformation of small businesses and biotechnology agreements.
  • Measures to secure the supply chains of critical technologies are largely popular, with inbound investment screening receiving higher support than other critical technology controls.
  • The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections could reshape U.S. priorities for coordination. Stark party differences on prioritization of climate change, supply chain issues and fighting disinformation could disrupt cooperation on these issues after the midterms.
  • The commercial viability of “friend-shoring” — relocating key manufacturing to friendly countries — may be picking up steam, as Americans who favor the idea increasingly say they’re willing to pay a bit more for supply chain security.

HOW AMERICANS AND EUROPEANS VIEW EACH OTHER

U.S. Views of the European Union and NATO

Shares of U.S. adults with favorable views of NATO and the European Union minus the corresponding shares with unfavorable views

Source: Morning Consult Political Intelligence

 

European Views of NATO and the United States

Shares of Western Europeans with favorable views of NATO and the United States minus the corresponding shares with unfavorable views

Source: Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Shares reflect averages of sentiment in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

 

A Country-by-Country Comparison of European Favorability Toward the United States

Shares of adults in each country with favorable views of the United States minus the corresponding shares with unfavorable views

Source: Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Data reported is based on eight-month aggregates for all countries shown, with country-specific margins of error of +/-1 percentage point.

U.S. PRIORITIES FOR TRANS-ATLANTIC COOPERATION

U.S. Priorities for Cooperation With the European Union

U.S. adults were asked to select their top seven priorities from a list of key policy areas

 

U.S. Priorities for Cooperation With the European Union by Party Affiliation

Respondents were asked to select their top seven priorities from a list of U.S.-E.U. areas of cooperation

ISSUE SPOTLIGHT: SANCTIONS, TRANS-ATLANTIC TRADE, INVESTMENT AND SUPPLY CHAINS

U.S. Support for Energy Sanctions on Russia by Party Affiliation

Shares who say “My government should impose sanctions on exports of Russian oil and natural gas even if it causes the price of goods to rise in my country”

 

European Support for Energy Sanctions on Russia as of September 2022

Shares who say “My government should impose sanctions on exports of Russian oil and natural gas” in the following circumstances:

 

U.S. Support for Inbound Investment Screening, Outbound Export and Investment Controls

Share of U.S. adults reporting how much they would support or oppose each of the following measures to help secure critical technologies:

Willingness to Pay More for Reshoring and Friend-Shoring

Shares of U.S. adults who say they would be willing to pay more for either friend-shored or reshored goods

How Much More U.S. Adults Would Pay for Reshoring and Friend-Shoring

U.S. adults reporting how much of a premium they would pay for each category of goods, among those who said they were willing to pay more

READ MORE

ABOUT

Methodology

The Trans-Atlantic Ties Tracker relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online.

All U.S. data aside from the country favorability series derives from recurring monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 2,200 U.S. adults or 2,000 registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 percentage points. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. voters or adults. U.S. country favorability data comes from Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Country favorability data is based on pooled seven-day moving averages of U.S. adults and has an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Morning Consult last updated its weights for U.S. adults on April 1, 2022.

All European data aside from the country favorability series derives from surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points each. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. European country favorability data comes from Morning Consult Political Intelligence. Daily reports are based on pooled seven-day moving averages of adults in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, each with an unweighted margin of error of less than +/-1 percentage point. The favorability map for Europe reports eight-month aggregates with sample sizes ranging from roughly 8,700 to 96,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of less than +/-1 percentage point each.

Dates indicated in all line charts correspond to the last day of survey fielding for each wave

About Morning Consult

Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.

About the author

Sonnet Frisbie is managing director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) on Morning Consult’s Geopolitical Risk Analysis team. Sonnet leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how best to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making.

Email press@morningconsult.com to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.