Poll: Bloomberg vs. Clinton vs. Trump

New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg addresses staff members of The World Bank (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
January 21, 2016 at 1:19 pm ET

RELATED: Poll: Bloomberg vs. Sanders. vs. Trump

Bloomberg receives 13 percent support in potential three-candidate matchup

When pitted in a three-way race with former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump gets 37 percent of voters, Democrat leader Hillary Clinton gets 36 percent and Bloomberg, an independent, gets 13 percent.

The survey of 4,000 registered voters found that 18 percent of people who identify as independents would support Bloomberg, compared with 12 percent of Republicans and 9 percent of Democrats. Bloomberg also receives the support of 17 percent of adults with a four-year college degree and 18 percent of voters in households earning $100k+ annually. 

StateGovernorApproveDisapproveDon't know / No opinionMargin of Error
AlabamaKay Ivey67%15%18%1%
AlaskaBill Walker29%52%20%6%
ArizonaDoug Ducey43%36%20%1%
ArkansasAsa Hutchinson57%25%18%2%
CaliforniaJerry Brown46%40%15%1%
ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper52%30%18%2%
ConnecticutDan Malloy21%72%7%2%
DelawareJohn Carney50%29%22%3%
FloridaRick Scott55%33%12%1%
GeorgiaNathan Deal56%24%21%1%
HawaiiDavid Ige37%49%15%4%
IdahoButch Otter47%38%14%3%
IllinoisBruce Rauner26%60%14%1%
IndianaEric Holcomb52%23%25%1%
IowaKim Reynolds42%35%23%2%
KansasJeff Colyer34%21%45%3%
KentuckyMatt Bevin41%43%16%1%
LouisianaJohn Bel Edwards50%31%19%2%
MainePaul LePage41%53%6%2%
MarylandLarry Hogan68%17%16%1%
MassachusettsCharlie Baker71%16%14%1%
MichiganRick Snyder38%48%15%1%
MinnesotaMark Dayton53%35%12%1%
MississippiPhil Bryant52%26%22%2%
MissouriEric Greitens40%39%21%1%
MontanaSteve Bullock55%32%14%4%
NebraskaPete Ricketts53%31%17%2%
NevadaBrian Sandoval57%22%21%2%
New HampshireChris Sununu63%21%16%3%
New JerseyPhil Murphy37%33%30%1%
New MexicoSusana Martinez37%53%10%3%
New YorkAndrew Cuomo51%37%12%1%
North CarolinaRoy Cooper50%28%23%1%
North DakotaDoug Burgum58%22%20%4%
OhioJohn Kasich51%32%18%1%
OklahomaMary Fallin25%63%12%2%
OregonKate Brown43%39%17%2%
PennsylvaniaTom Wolf45%39%16%1%
Rhode IslandGina Raimondo39%50%11%3%
South CarolinaHenry McMaster50%24%27%1%
South DakotaDennis Daugaard62%24%14%4%
TennesseeBill Haslam57%24%20%1%
TexasGreg Abbott56%26%18%1%
UtahGary Herbert60%23%17%2%
VermontPhil Scott65%21%14%4%
VirginiaRalph Northam44%26%30%1%
WashingtonJay Inslee52%30%18%2%
West VirginiaJim Justice42%44%14%2%
WisconsinScott Walker43%50%8%1%
WyomingMatt Mead61%25%15%5%

Bloomberg entrance could hurt Clinton more than Trump

In a two-way race, Clinton edges out Trump by a 44 to 42 percent margin, with 14 percent of voters saying they are undecided. In a match-up including Bloomberg, however, Clinton’s support declines by 8 points, to 36 percent, and Trump’s support declines by 5 points, to 37 percent. With Bloomberg in the race, Clinton’s support would decline the most among independents (36 to 24 percent) and adults under 30 years old (52 to 41 percent).

Bloomberg may struggle due to low name recognition

More voters have a favorable impression of Bloomberg (30 percent) than an unfavorable one (26 percent). But 43 percent say they have not heard of him or have no opinion. More than half of voters have unfavorable views toward Clinton (54 percent) and Trump (52 percent), but both have near universal name recognition. Bloomberg’s favorability rating is +13 among Democrats (33 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable), +6 among independents (32 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable) and -9 among Republicans (26 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable). 

DemographicJan '17 ApprovalJan '17 DisapprovalMargin of ErrorJan '18 ApprovalJan '18 DisapprovalMargin of Error
AK55%31%5%48%47%4%
AL62%26%4%63%33%2%
AR59%29%5%53%40%2%
AZ55%35%3%46%49%2%
CA42%48%2%36%59%1%
CO45%44%4%41%55%2%
CT47%42%4%39%58%1%
DC30%61%4%16%80%2%
DE49%41%4%41%55%3%
FL56%34%3%50%45%1%
GA53%35%3%51%44%1%
HI38%51%5%30%66%3%
IA49%40%4%43%53%2%
ID59%30%3%53%42%3%
IL49%40%3%37%58%1%
IN55%33%3%48%47%1%
KS56%32%3%50%45%2%
KY61%27%3%55%40%2%
LA59%28%3%57%38%3%
MA43%47%3%32%64%1%
MD38%51%4%36%59%2%
ME48%40%5%40%56%2%
MI48%40%3%42%52%1%
MN46%43%3%41%55%2%
MO53%34%3%49%47%1%
MS61%27%4%56%39%2%
MT56%32%3%48%48%2%
NC53%35%3%47%48%1%
ND56%33%3%53%42%3%
NE56%33%5%51%45%2%
NH45%44%4%43%53%3%
NJ46%44%3%40%56%1%
NM52%35%4%38%58%2%
NV49%39%3%47%48%2%
NY49%41%2%39%57%1%
OH51%37%3%46%50%1%
OK61%27%4%55%40%2%
OR45%43%5%37%57%2%
PA49%39%3%46%49%1%
RI42%46%4%37%59%2%
SC56%31%3%51%44%2%
SD54%33%4%53%43%3%
TN61%28%3%56%39%2%
TX54%34%2%51%44%1%
UT58%31%6%46%49%2%
VA49%41%3%45%49%1%
VT43%45%5%30%66%2%
WA45%44%4%36%59%2%
WI47%41%3%42%54%1%
WV62%25%4%59%37%2%
WY63%23%4%60%35%3%

Clinton holds larger lead in potential three candidate match ups with Rubio, Cruz

When you swap in other potential Republican presidential candidates, Clinton’s lead solidifies. She gets 38 percent support in a potential match up with Ted Cruz, who gets 34 percent, while Bloomberg pulls 11 percent of voters. The former Secretary of State also leads with 38 percent in a potential contest with Marco Rubio, who gets 33 percent, and Bloomberg, who gets 10 percent.

StateSenatorApproveDisapproveDon't Know/No OpinionMargin of Error
AlabamaLuther Strange42%34%21%1%
AlabamaRichard Shelby50%28%25%1%
AlaskaDan Sullivan50%32%19%6%
AlaskaLisa Murkowski45%41%14%6%
ArizonaJeff Flake32%49%19%1%
ArizonaJohn McCain44%44%12%1%
ArkansasJohn Boozman45%29%26%2%
ArkansasTom Cotton49%32%19%2%
CaliforniaDianne Feinstein47%35%18%1%
CaliforniaKamala Harris46%27%26%1%
ColoradoCory Gardner41%36%22%2%
ColoradoMichael Bennet45%31%24%2%
ConnecticutChris Murphy49%34%17%2%
ConnecticutRichard Blumenthal51%37%12%2%
DelawareChris Coons51%28%20%3%
DelawareThomas Carper58%24%19%3%
FloridaBill Nelson51%26%23%1%
FloridaMarco Rubio47%37%16%1%
GeorgiaDavid Perdue49%26%25%1%
GeorgiaJohnny Isakson48%27%26%1%
HawaiiBrian Schatz63%21%17%4%
HawaiiMazie Hirono60%26%15%4%
IdahoJames Risch46%29%18%3%
IdahoMichael Crapo50%32%25%3%
IllinoisDick Durbin39%38%24%1%
IllinoisTammy Duckworth42%33%26%1%
IndianaJoe Donnelly44%30%27%1%
IndianaTodd Young42%28%30%1%
IowaChuck Grassley47%36%18%2%
IowaJoni Ernst44%35%21%2%
KansasJerry Moran41%34%25%2%
KansasPat Roberts36%40%23%2%
KentuckyMitch McConnell32%53%14%1%
KentuckyRand Paul45%38%18%1%
LouisianaBill Cassidy46%28%26%2%
LouisianaJohn Kennedy49%25%25%2%
MaineAngus King59%28%8%3%
MaineSusan Collins61%32%13%3%
MarylandBenjamin Cardin50%24%29%2%
MarylandChris Van Hollen48%23%27%2%
MassachusettsEdward Markey51%23%26%1%
MassachusettsElizabeth Warren52%35%12%1%
MichiganDebbie Stabenow44%35%21%1%
MichiganGary Peters37%27%36%1%
MinnesotaAl Franken50%37%15%2%
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar59%24%17%2%
MississippiRoger Wicker44%29%27%2%
MississippiThad Cochran48%29%22%2%
MissouriClaire McCaskill41%41%18%1%
MissouriRoy Blunt40%37%22%1%
MontanaJon Tester47%40%13%4%
MontanaSteve Daines49%31%19%4%
NebraskaBenjamin Sasse43%33%23%3%
NebraskaDeb Fischer46%34%20%3%
NevadaCatherine Cortez Masto45%31%24%2%
NevadaDean Heller41%39%20%2%
New HampshireJeanne Shaheen51%33%16%3%
New HampshireMaggie Hassan51%31%17%3%
New JerseyCory Booker48%31%21%1%
New JerseyRobert Menendez29%45%26%1%
New MexicoMartin Heinrich46%29%24%3%
New MexicoTom Udall49%29%22%3%
New YorkChuck Schumer55%30%15%1%
New YorkKirsten Gillibrand51%26%23%1%
North CarolinaRichard Burr41%33%27%1%
North CarolinaThom Tillis37%33%30%1%
North DakotaHeidi Heitkamp50%33%17%4%
North DakotaJohn Hoeven54%25%20%4%
OhioRob Portman41%32%27%1%
OhioSherrod Brown46%28%25%1%
OklahomaJames Inhofe44%35%21%2%
OklahomaJames Lankford45%32%22%2%
OregonJeff Merkley49%26%22%2%
OregonRon Wyden52%26%26%2%
PennsylvaniaPat Toomey38%39%23%1%
PennsylvaniaBob Casey43%32%25%1%
Rhode IslandJack Reed51%28%21%3%
Rhode IslandSheldon Whitehouse46%31%21%3%
South CarolinaLindsey Graham44%37%24%2%
South CarolinaTim Scott54%21%18%2%
South DakotaJohn Thune59%32%9%4%
South DakotaMike Rounds56%32%12%4%
TennesseeBob Corker43%36%21%1%
TennesseeLamar Alexander46%32%23%1%
TexasJohn Cornyn45%28%18%1%
TexasTed Cruz50%32%18%1%
UtahMike Lee52%26%22%3%
UtahOrrin Hatch49%37%14%3%
VermontBernie Sanders68%26%6%4%
VermontPatrick Leahy62%24%14%4%
VirginiaMark Warner49%29%20%1%
VirginiaTimothy Kaine45%35%21%1%
WashingtonMaria Cantwell51%27%21%1%
WashingtonPatty Murray53%30%17%1%
West VirginiaJoe Manchin52%36%18%2%
West VirginiaShelley Moore Capito48%34%12%2%
WisconsinRon Johnson39%40%21%1%
WisconsinTammy Baldwin40%40%19%1%
WyomingJohn Barrasso61%24%14%5%
WyomingMichael Enzi62%24%15%5%

 

StateSenatorApproveDissaproveDon't Know/No OpinionMargin of Error
AlabamaRichard Shelby53%27%20%1%
AlabamaLuther Strange44%34%23%1%
AlaskaLisa Murkowski49%38%13%5%
AlaskaDan Sullivan49%32%18%5%
ArizonaJohn McCain46%44%10%1%
ArizonaJeff Flake33%48%20%1%
ArkansasTom Cotton55%27%18%2%
ArkansasJohn Boozman52%23%25%2%
CaliforniaDianne Feinstein47%33%20%1%
CaliforniaKamala Harris46%26%28%1%
ColoradoMichael Bennet46%30%24%2%
ColoradoCory Gardner40%39%22%2%
ConnecticutRichard Blumenthal54%34%12%2%
ConnecticutChris Murphy53%31%17%2%
DelawareThomas Carper55%24%20%3%
DelawareChris Coons48%29%22%3%
FloridaBill Nelson50%26%24%1%
FloridaMarco Rubio47%37%16%1%
GeorgiaDavid Perdue51%26%24%1%
GeorgiaJohn Isakson49%26%25%1%
HawaiiMazie Hirono60%24%16%4%
HawaiiBrian Schatz60%22%18%4%
IdahoMichael Crapo50%30%19%3%
IdahoJames Risch43%29%28%3%
IllinoisTammy Duckworth41%32%26%1%
IllinoisDick Durbin37%38%25%1%
IndianaJoe Donnelly47%26%27%1%
IndianaTodd Young45%26%28%1%
IowaChuck Grassley50%35%15%2%
IowaJoni Ernst45%36%19%2%
KansasJerry Moran44%34%22%2%
KansasPat Roberts39%40%21%2%
KentuckyRand Paul48%36%16%1%
KentuckyMitch McConnell33%55%12%1%
LouisianaJohn Kennedy50%25%26%2%
LouisianaBill Cassidy47%30%24%2%
MaineSusan Collins62%30%8%3%
MaineAngus King61%27%12%3%
MarylandBen Cardin50%23%27%1%
MarylandChris Van Hollen48%23%29%1%
MassachusettsElizabeth Warren54%35%11%1%
MassachusettsEd Markey49%22%28%1%
MichiganDebbie Stabenow45%36%19%1%
MichiganGary Peters37%28%35%1%
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar59%26%15%2%
MinnesotaAl Franken55%32%14%2%
MississippiThad Cochran51%27%21%2%
MississippiRoger Wicker49%26%24%2%
MissouriRoy Blunt44%36%20%1%
MissouriClaire McCaskill42%39%18%1%
MontanaJon Tester53%33%14%4%
MontanaSteve Daines49%32%20%4%
NebraskaBen Sasse46%34%20%3%
NebraskaDeb Fischer45%35%19%3%
NevadaCatherine Cortez Masto45%32%23%2%
NevadaDean Heller39%39%21%2%
New HampshireMaggie Hassan53%31%15%3%
New HampshireJeanne Shaheen50%33%17%3%
New JerseyCory Booker48%30%21%1%
New JerseyRobert Menendez32%41%28%1%
New MexicoTom Udall46%31%24%3%
New MexicoMartin Heinrich45%31%24%3%
New YorkChuck Schumer55%29%15%1%
New YorkKirsten Gillibrand49%24%26%1%
North CarolinaRichard Burr42%32%27%1%
North CarolinaThom Tillis38%31%30%1%
North DakotaJohn Hoeven63%20%18%4%
North DakotaHeidi Heitkamp55%32%14%4%
OhioSherrod Brown47%28%25%1%
OhioRob Portman43%31%25%1%
OklahomaJames Lankford48%28%24%2%
OklahomaJames Inhofe45%34%21%2%
OregonRon Wyden56%23%21%2%
OregonJeff Merkley53%24%24%2%
PennsylvaniaRobert Casey43%32%25%1%
PennsylvaniaPatrick Toomey39%38%23%1%
Rhode IslandJack Reed51%28%21%3%
Rhode IslandSheldon Whitehouse49%32%18%3%
South CarolinaTim Scott55%22%24%1%
South CarolinaLindsey Graham44%39%17%1%
South DakotaJohn Thune56%31%13%4%
South DakotaMike Rounds51%32%16%4%
TennesseeBob Corker48%30%23%1%
TennesseeLamar Alexander45%31%23%1%
TexasTed Cruz52%32%16%1%
TexasJohn Cornyn46%27%28%1%
UtahMike Lee52%30%18%2%
UtahOrrin Hatch46%41%13%2%
VermontBernie Sanders71%22%6%4%
VermontPatrick Leahy67%22%12%4%
VirginiaMark Warner53%28%19%1%
VirginiaTim Kaine48%35%18%1%
WashingtonPatty Murray51%32%17%1%
WashingtonMaria Cantwell50%28%22%1%
West VirginiaJoe Manchin53%36%11%2%
West VirginiaShelley Moore Capito48%36%16%2%
WisconsinTammy Baldwin41%38%21%1%
WisconsinRon Johnson41%39%20%1%
WyomingJohn Barrasso53%26%21%6%
WyomingMike Enzi53%25%21%6%

 

StateGovernorApproveDisapproveDon't Know/No OpinionMargin of Error
AlabamaKay Ivey62%12%24%1%
AlaskaBill Walker40%47%13%5%
ArizonaDoug Ducey46%33%21%1%
ArkansasAsa Hutchinson63%19%18%2%
CaliforniaJerry Brown48%37%16%1%
ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper54%30%16%2%
ConnecticutDan Malloy23%68%9%2%
DelawareJohn Carney51%27%22%3%
FloridaRick Scott54%34%13%1%
GeorgiaNathan Deal56%24%19%1%
HawaiiDavid Ige47%39%14%4%
IdahoButch Otter51%35%14%3%
IllinoisBruce Rauner30%55%15%1%
IndianaEric Holcomb53%21%26%1%
IowaKim Reynolds45%27%30%2%
KansasSam Brownback24%66%10%2%
KentuckyMatt Bevin45%41%15%1%
LouisianaJohn Bel Edwards53%32%15%2%
MainePaul LePage42%52%6%3%
MarylandLarry Hogan66%18%16%1%
MassachusettsCharlie Baker69%17%15%1%
MichiganRick Snyder37%50%13%1%
MinnesotaMark Dayton52%34%14%2%
MississippiPhil Bryant55%27%18%2%
MissouriEric Greitens49%29%22%1%
MontanaSteve Bullock57%26%16%4%
NebraskaPete Ricketts56%29%16%3%
NevadaBrian Sandoval61%21%19%2%
New HampshireChris Sununu59%22%19%3%
New JerseyChris Christie18%77%5%1%
New MexicoSusana Martinez37%52%10%3%
New YorkAndrew Cuomo55%33%12%1%
North CarolinaRoy Cooper50%28%22%1%
North DakotaDoug Burgum62%17%20%4%
OhioJohn Kasich55%30%16%1%
OklahomaMary Fallin30%58%12%2%
OregonKate Brown50%34%17%2%
PennsylvaniaTom Wolf46%38%16%1%
Rhode IslandGina Raimondo41%47%12%3%
South CarolinaHenry McMaster51%21%27%1%
South DakotaDennis Daugaard59%25%15%4%
TennesseeBill Haslam57%23%20%1%
TexasGreg Abbott58%25%16%1%
UtahGary Herbert56%29%14%2%
VermontPhil Scott60%21%19%4%
VirginiaTerry McAuliffe48%31%20%1%
WashingtonJay Inslee48%33%18%1%
West VirginiaJim Justice41%46%13%2%
WisconsinScott Walker44%48%8%1%
WyomingMatt Mead59%23%18%6%

 

Polling Methodology – This poll was conducted from January 14-17, 2016, among a national sample of 4,060 registered voters. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, region, annual household income, home ownership status and marital status. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 

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