Updated Data 10/17/2019
Political Intelligence
Special Post-Debate Edition: The State of the Democratic Primary

Morning Consult is releasing a special edition survey tracking the Democratic presidential race following the party’s Oct. 15 debate in Westerville, Ohio. Read analysis of the latest poll here.

 

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Monday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The latest results are based on 2,202 survey interviews conducted Oct. 16, 2019, among Democratic primary voters.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
31%
2
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
21%
3
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
18%
4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
7%
5
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
6%
6
Andrew Yang Business Person
3%
7
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
2%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
2%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
2%
Tom Steyer Business Person
2%
11
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
Steve Bullock Governor
1%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
1%
Someone else
1%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
29%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Kamala Harris
10%
Warren Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
27%
Bernie Sanders
21%
Pete Buttigieg
16%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
30%
Elizabeth Warren
30%
Kamala Harris
9%
Harris Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
27%
Joe Biden
22%
Cory Booker
15%
Buttigieg Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
28%
Joe Biden
19%
Amy Klobuchar
11%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
74% 7% 0% 19%
Joe Biden Former Vice President
70% 5% 2% 22%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
67% 11% 6% 16%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
49% 20% 13% 18%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
54% 14% 13% 19%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
47% 21% 14% 18%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
38% 28% 15% 19%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
54% 19% 16% 11%
Andrew Yang Business Person
44% 20% 21% 15%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
40% 24% 21% 15%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
26% 35% 22% 17%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
20% 40% 25% 15%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
29% 18% 32% 21%
Tom Steyer Business Person
29% 23% 32% 16%
Steve Bullock Governor
19% 33% 34% 14%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
20% 21% 34% 25%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
22% 31% 37% 11%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the president, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on October 17, 2019.

Our Democratic primary results are reported using 2,202 interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The interviews were collected October 16, 2019, and have a margin of error of +/- 2%.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.

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