Updated Data 10/14/2019
Political Intelligence
The State of the Democratic Primary

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Monday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada. The latest results are based on 15,683 survey interviews conducted between Oct. 7-12, 2019.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
32%
2
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
21%
3
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
19%
4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
6%
5
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
5%
6
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
3%
Andrew Yang Business Person
3%
8
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
2%
9
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
Steve Bullock Governor
1%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
Tom Steyer Business Person
1%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
1%
Someone else
2%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
29%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Kamala Harris
10%
Warren Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
26%
Bernie Sanders
21%
Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg
17%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
29%
Elizabeth Warren
28%
Kamala Harris
6%
Harris Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
26%
Joe Biden
23%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Buttigieg Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
33%
Joe Biden
20%
Kamala Harris
9%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Joe Biden Former Vice President
73% 7% 1% 18%
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
75% 6% 1% 18%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
66% 11% 8% 15%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
55% 15% 12% 19%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
46% 20% 16% 18%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
47% 19% 18% 16%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
35% 24% 22% 19%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
46% 18% 22% 13%
Andrew Yang Business Person
39% 23% 24% 14%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
34% 24% 28% 14%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
21% 33% 29% 18%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
18% 35% 33% 15%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
18% 32% 37% 14%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
19% 23% 37% 21%
Steve Bullock Governor
17% 33% 38% 12%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
26% 21% 38% 15%
Tom Steyer Business Person
23% 24% 40% 13%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the president, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on October 14, 2019.

Our Democratic primary results are reported using 15,683 interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The interviews were collected from October 7-13, 2019, and have a margin of error of +/- 1%. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 682 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.

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