Updated Data 02/03/2020
Political Intelligence
The 2020 U.S. Election

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the White House is shaping up.

 

The Latest Insights

Our latest results are based on 35,888 surveys with registered voters, including 15,259 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted from Jan. 27-Feb. 2, 2020.

Biden’s Support Ebbs to Lowest Point of 2020 Cycle
Heading into the Iowa caucuses, former Vice President Joe Biden fell to 28 percent support among Democratic primary voters nationwide — the lowest share measured since Morning Consult began tracking in early 2019. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) trails Biden by 4 percentage points going into the first nominating contest of the year, the smallest margin recorded since early March.

Bloomberg Pulls Even With Warren
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg picked up another 2 points among Democratic primary voters across the country, pulling even with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 14 percent first-choice support. The latest survey testing hypothetical matchups between the top Democratic candidates and President Trump also brings good news for the billionaire businessman: Bloomberg leads the Republican incumbent by 7 points, the largest margin Morning Consult has measured among any candidate since it began releasing head-to-head results in early January.

Who’s Leading the Democratic Primary

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and 14 other demographics.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
28%
2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
24%
3
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Business Person
14%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
14%
5
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
6%
6
Andrew Yang Business Person
4%
7
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
3%
Tom Steyer Business Person
3%
9
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
2%
10
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
Deval Patrick Former Governor
1%
Someone else
1%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Democratic Primary Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Democratic Primary Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
27%
Michael Bloomberg
21%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Sanders Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
29%
Joe Biden
27%
Andrew Yang
12%
Bloomberg Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Bloomberg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
36%
Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren
14%
Pete Buttigieg
10%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
35%
Joe Biden
22%
Pete Buttigieg/Amy Klobuchar
10%
Buttigieg Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
21%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Michael Bloomberg/Bernie Sanders
15%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability Among Democratic Primary Voters

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them. Candidates are ordered by name recognition, and in the case of a tie, alphabetically by last name.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Joe Biden Former Vice President
70% 6% 1% 23%
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
73% 6% 1% 20%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
64% 11% 5% 21%
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Business Person
58% 15% 5% 21%
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
50% 18% 15% 17%
Andrew Yang Business Person
49% 21% 16% 14%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
40% 22% 21% 17%
Tom Steyer Business Person
38% 23% 24% 15%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
21% 23% 28% 28%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
22% 33% 31% 14%
Deval Patrick Former Governor
17% 27% 44% 12%
Hypothetical General-Election Matchups

All registered voters were asked whom they would vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today, each of the following or President Trump.

Democrat
Undecided
Donald Trump
Michael Bloomberg Former Mayor & Business Person
47% 13% 40%
Donald Trump
Joe Biden Former Vice President
46% 12% 42%
Donald Trump
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
46% 12% 42%
Donald Trump
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
43% 15% 42%
Donald Trump
Pete Buttigieg Former Mayor
42% 17% 41%
Donald Trump
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the president, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on February 3, 2020.

Our latest results are based on 35,888 surveys with registered voters, including 15,259 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted Jan. 27-Feb 2, 2020. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Our Democratic primary results are reported using interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. Those who say they don’t know or have no opinion are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The responses among all Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 682 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. The “Super Tuesday Voters” demographic consists of 4,997 voters in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

The “Hypothetical General-Election Matchups” section displays responses among all registered voters — not just those who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state — and those matchups have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.

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