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Updated Data 05/20/2019
Political Intelligence
The State of the Democratic Primary

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Monday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The latest results are based on 14,830 interviews with registered voters, collected from May 13 – 19 2019.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
39%
2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
19%
3
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
9%
4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
8%
5
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
6%
6
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
4%
7
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
3%
8
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
Steve Bullock Governor
1%
Bill de Blasio Mayor
1%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
1%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
1%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
Andrew Yang Business Person
1%
19
Jay Inslee Governor
0%
Seth Moulton U.S. Representative
0%
Eric Swalwell U.S. Representative
0%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
0%
Someone else
2%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
29%
Kamala Harris
16%
Elizabeth Warren
10%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
37%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Kamala Harris
7%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden
20%
Kamala Harris
20%
Harris Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
26%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Bernie Sanders
13%
Buttigieg Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
24%
Kamala Harris
17%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
75% 7% 1% 17%
Joe Biden Former Vice President
77% 7% 1% 15%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
57% 16% 12% 16%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
48% 20% 20% 12%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
50% 16% 21% 13%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
45% 19% 24% 12%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
31% 25% 31% 13%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
41% 18% 32% 10%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
27% 28% 33% 12%
Bill de Blasio Mayor
20% 27% 34% 19%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
30% 23% 35% 12%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
17% 31% 39% 13%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
14% 33% 44% 9%
Steve Bullock Governor
14% 28% 49% 10%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
15% 27% 49% 10%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
17% 21% 50% 12%
Jay Inslee Governor
16% 24% 51% 9%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
17% 23% 51% 10%
Andrew Yang Business Person
17% 24% 51% 8%
Eric Swalwell U.S. Representative
15% 19% 58% 8%
Seth Moulton U.S. Representative
10% 21% 62% 8%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
11% 18% 63% 8%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on May 20, 2019.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 14,830 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning towards. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean towards a candidate. The interviews were collected from May 13 – 19, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%.

The “Early Primary State” demographic was based on surveys with 582 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, and has a margin of error of +/-4%.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.