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Political Intelligence
The State of the Democratic Primary

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Monday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The latest results are based on 14,335 interviews with registered voters, collected from April 15-21 2019.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
30%
2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
24%
3
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
9%
4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
8%
5
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
7%
6
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
6%
7
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
4%
8
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
2%
Andrew Yang Business Person
2%
10
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
1%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
1%
Jay Inslee Governor
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
16
Steve Bullock Governor
0%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
0%
Someone else
2%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
34%
Kamala Harris
11%
Elizabeth Warren
9%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
16%
Kamala Harris
8%
Buttigieg Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
20%
Kamala Harris
18%
Bernie Sanders
16%
Harris Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
22%
Bernie Sanders
16%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
27%
Joe Biden
17%
Kamala Harris
16%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
75% 7% 1% 16%
Joe Biden Former Vice President
75% 9% 2% 14%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
55% 16% 11% 19%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
49% 17% 22% 12%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
47% 19% 23% 11%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
44% 19% 25% 12%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
32% 25% 30% 14%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
28% 26% 34% 12%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
38% 17% 36% 9%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
28% 22% 37% 13%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
17% 28% 42% 14%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
14% 31% 46% 9%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
16% 24% 52% 9%
Steve Bullock Governor
12% 26% 53% 9%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
16% 20% 53% 11%
Andrew Yang Business Person
17% 23% 53% 7%
Jay Inslee Governor
17% 21% 56% 7%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on April 23, 2019.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 14,335 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning towards. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean towards a candidate. The interviews were collected from April 15-21, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%.

The “Early Primary State” demographic was based on surveys with 556 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, and has a margin of error of +/-4%.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.