Updated Data 09/23/2019
Political Intelligence
The State of the Democratic Primary

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Monday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. The latest results are based on 17,377 survey interviews conducted between Sept. 16-22, 2019.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
32%
2
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
20%
3
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
19%
4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
6%
5
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
5%
6
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
3%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
3%
Andrew Yang Business Person
3%
9
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
2%
10
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
Steve Bullock Governor
1%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
Tom Steyer Business Person
1%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
1%
Someone else
2%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
28%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Kamala Harris
10%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
24%
Joe Biden
24%
Kamala Harris
16%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
29%
Elizabeth Warren
28%
Kamala Harris
7%
Harris Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
31%
Joe Biden
18%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Buttigieg Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
30%
Joe Biden
19%
Kamala Harris
11%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Joe Biden Former Vice President
71% 7% 1% 21%
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
73% 6% 1% 20%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
66% 12% 8% 14%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
55% 14% 11% 20%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
48% 18% 16% 18%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
49% 18% 17% 16%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
32% 24% 20% 24%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
48% 17% 21% 14%
Andrew Yang Business Person
40% 21% 24% 16%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
37% 23% 26% 14%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
22% 33% 26% 19%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
20% 34% 31% 16%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
20% 31% 36% 13%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
25% 23% 36% 16%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
19% 23% 36% 22%
Steve Bullock Governor
17% 32% 37% 13%
Tom Steyer Business Person
21% 23% 41% 14%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the president, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on September 23, 2019.

Our Democratic primary results are reported using 17,377 interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The interviews were collected from September 16-22, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 700 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.