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Political Intelligence
The State of the Democratic Primary

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Tuesday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The latest results are based on 13,551 interviews with registered voters, collected from March 11- 17, 2019.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
35%
2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
27%
3
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
8%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
8%
5
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
7%
6
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
4%
7
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
2%
8
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
1%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
1%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
1%
Jay Inslee Governor
1%
15
Steve Bullock Governor
0%
Terry McAuliffe Former Governor
0%
Someone else
3%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for the top candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
32%
Kamala Harris
13%
Beto O'Rourke
12%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
36%
Elizabeth Warren
17%
Beto O'Rourke
8%
Harris Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
24%
Bernie Sanders
16%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
O'Rourke Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
O'Rourke Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
26%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Kamala Harris
12%
Warren Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
28%
Joe Biden
21%
Kamala Harris
13%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Joe Biden Former Vice President
77% 8% 2% 12%
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
75% 8% 2% 15%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
55% 16% 12% 17%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
48% 19% 21% 13%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
45% 17% 27% 11%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
42% 19% 25% 14%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
31% 25% 31% 13%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
28% 28% 34% 11%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
27% 23% 38% 12%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
17% 18% 56% 9%
Terry McAuliffe Former Governor
17% 26% 47% 10%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
16% 23% 51% 10%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
16% 20% 53% 11%
Jay Inslee Governor
15% 21% 55% 8%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
14% 31% 45% 11%
Steve Bullock Governor
12% 25% 55% 9%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on March 18, 2019.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 13,551 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning towards. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean towards a candidate. The interviews were collected from March 11, 2019 through March 17, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%.

The “Early Primary State” demographic was based on surveys with 571 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, and has a margin of error of +/-4%.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.