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Updated Data 07/15/2019
Political Intelligence
The State of the Democratic Primary

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every Monday, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up. 

 

To receive an early look at this report, and other key 2020 data, sign up here.

Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. The latest results are based on 16,504 survey interviews conducted between July 8-14, 2019.

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
32%
2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
19%
3
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
14%
4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
13%
5
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
5%
6
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
3%
7
Andrew Yang Business Person
2%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
2%
9
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
1%
Steve Bullock Governor
1%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
1%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
1%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
18
Bill de Blasio Mayor
0%
Jay Inslee Governor
0%
Seth Moulton U.S. Representative
0%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
0%
Someone else
2%
See more  candidates
Tracking The Field Over Time

Hover over or click each line to track how support for candidates has changed week to week.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

Biden Supporters
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator
Biden Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
27%
Kamala Harris
18%
Elizabeth Warren
16%
Sanders Supporters
Joe Biden
Former Vice President
Sanders Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
32%
Elizabeth Warren
23%
Kamala Harris
8%
Warren Supporters
Kamala Harris
U.S. Senator
Warren Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Kamala Harris
31%
Bernie Sanders
21%
Joe Biden
16%
Harris Supporters
Elizabeth Warren
U.S. Senator
Harris Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Elizabeth Warren
28%
Joe Biden
26%
Pete Buttigieg
12%
Buttigieg Supporters
Kamala Harris
U.S. Senator
Buttigieg Supporters
Second Choice Selections
Kamala Harris
26%
Joe Biden
20%
Elizabeth Warren
18%
Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable impression of each of the following, and also had the option of saying they hadn’t heard of that person or had no opinion about them.

Favorable
Heard Of, No Opinion
Never Heard Of
Unfavorable
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
71% 8% 2% 19%
Joe Biden Former Vice President
71% 7% 2% 20%
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
61% 13% 11% 15%
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
55% 14% 16% 15%
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
42% 20% 21% 17%
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
45% 19% 22% 15%
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
36% 28% 24% 12%
Bill de Blasio Mayor
21% 26% 27% 25%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
33% 24% 28% 15%
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
45% 16% 28% 11%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
19% 33% 31% 17%
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
30% 24% 32% 14%
John Delaney Former U.S. Representative
15% 34% 38% 13%
Andrew Yang Business Person
24% 26% 38% 12%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
19% 27% 43% 11%
Michael Bennet U.S. Senator
17% 28% 44% 12%
Marianne Williamson Activist & Author
13% 23% 44% 20%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
20% 22% 45% 13%
Jay Inslee Governor
17% 26% 47% 10%
Steve Bullock Governor
14% 29% 47% 10%
Seth Moulton U.S. Representative
10% 25% 55% 10%
Methodology

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level.

Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here.

Results from the most recent update

This page was last updated on July 15, 2019.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 16,504 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning towards. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean towards a candidate. The interviews were collected from July 8-14, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 2%. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 685 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.