Former President Donald Trump began his presidential campaign with the bulk of the Republican electorate behind him, but his grip is being put to the test ahead of the 2024 nominating contests. Morning Consult surveys are tracking the Republican primary electorate’s views of Trump and other declared or potential candidates, as well as how he fares with the wider electorate — a key metric for a party looking to turn the tide on recent electoral disappointments.  

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• Over half of potential Republican primary voters (52%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, compared with 26% who would support DeSantis.
• Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is backed by 5% of the party’s electorate, while Ramaswamy has 1% support, showing meager backing for Trump’s declared challengers for the GOP’s nomination.

• A hypothetical head-to-head matchup shows Biden with 1-percentage point leads over Trump and DeSantis. Since early this month, DeSantis has held no advantage over Biden, a contrast with prior surveys conducted since December that would from time to time give the Floridian a modest lead.
• These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base.

• Almost 7 in 10 potential Republican primary voters (68%) hold favorable views of DeSantis, compared with 13% who view him unfavorably. Trump is popular with 76% of the party’s potential electorate, in line with his standing throughout much of 2023.
• Under half of GOP voters (48%) view Haley favorably, while 18% say the same of Ramaswamy.

• More than 2 in 5 potential primary voters (42%) said they’d recently heard something negative about Trump, up from 30% the previous week as he warned of “potential death & destruction” should he be indicted and called for mass protests. 
• Few voters are paying attention to Trump’s current or potential challengers for the Republican nomination, with 65% saying they’d not recently heard anything about Haley and 40% saying the same about DeSantis.

Methodology

The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted March 24-26, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,528 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024. 

Potential GOP primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate.

The hypothetical general-election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of more than 5,000 registered voters. 

Morning Consult’s reported results among both sets of voters for the aforementioned questions reflect data based on a three-day trailing average. Across all times series, results among potential Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have an unweighted margin of error of 1 percentage point. 

Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of roughly 4,000 registered voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2020 presidential vote history.

Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly or biweekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of 4 percentage points.

About Morning Consult

Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.

Email press@morningconsult.com to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.