Former President Donald Trump began his presidential campaign with the bulk of the Republican electorate behind him, but with several other potential contenders considering their own push for the nomination, his grip is being put to the test ahead of the 2024 nominating contests. Morning Consult surveys are tracking the Republican primary electorate’s views of Trump and his potential rivals, as well as how he fares with the wider electorate — a key metric for a party looking to turn the tide on recent electoral disappointments.
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Share of potential GOP primary voters who would support the following if the 2024 Republican primary were held today:
- Nearly half of potential Republican primary voters (48%) would back Trump in a hypothetical contest, compared with 31% who said they would support DeSantis.
- Haley, who once served as Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, has recently suggested she will soon make a decision about whether to enter the contest. Just 3% of the party’s potential electorate is currently in her camp — identical to the share who would back former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, a vocal Trump critic.
After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option; the results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates or potential candidates could go next
- DeSantis is the second choice of 42% of potential GOP primary voters who are backing Trump, compared with 34% of the Florida governor’s supporters who view Trump as their top backup option.
- Pence is the second choice of 14% of DeSantis supporters and 18% of Trump backers in a Republican primary. Those who would vote for Pence if the primary were today are roughly splitting their backup plans, largely between Trump and DeSantis.
- A hypothetical head-to-head matchup shows Biden with a 1-point lead over DeSantis, compared with a 3-point lead over Trump. The share of voters who said they’d support Biden in both matchups is largely unchanged as he has navigated his classified documents controversy.
- These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage.
- More than 3 in 4 potential Republican primary voters (76%) hold favorable views of Trump, while 23% view him negatively. By net favorability, which takes into account voters’ negative opinions, DeSantis is more popular than Trump.
- Much of the GOP’s potential electorate (44%) has yet to form opinions about Haley, compared with 44% who hold favorable views and 12% who view her unfavorably.
- The share of potential 2024 primary voters who have recently heard something positive about Trump has improved to 35% in recent weeks. In addition, more of these voters reported hearing something positive than negative about the former president for the third week in a row.
- While buzz about Pence worsened, little information appears to be penetrating Republican minds about many potential primary candidates. For example, 41% said they’d heard nothing about DeSantis, 45% heard nothing about Pence and 74% heard nothing about Haley.
The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted Jan. 27-29, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,592 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential GOP primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate.
The hypothetical general-election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of roughly 6,000 registered voters.
Morning Consult’s reported results among both sets of voters for the aforementioned questions reflect data based on a three-day trailing average. Across all times series, results among potential Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have an unweighted margin of error of 1 percentage point.
Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of roughly 4,000 registered voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2020 presidential vote history.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly or biweekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of 4 percentage points.
About Morning Consult
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