U.S. Vaccine Dashboard

Vaccine Opposition Closely Mirrors Trump Vote by State; Pace of Vaccinations Stalls Among Young Adults

By Nick Laughlin | Updated: May 13, 2021

 

Morning Consult is conducting around 30,000 weekly survey interviews in the United States on the vaccine rollout, providing deep insights at a granular level into which segments of the population are most and least opposed to vaccinations, and what factors are driving skepticism. The latest data is based on surveys conducted from May 4-10, 2021, among 37,271 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point. Updates will be provided monthly. Get alerts with the latest data. 

View our weekly global tracker.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Vaccine opposition closely mirrors 2020 election outcome in states: Of the 20 states with the highest rates of unwillingness to get vaccinated, former President Donald Trump won 19. Of the 20 states with the lowest rates of vaccine unwillingness, President Joe Biden won 18. Rates by state.

The pace of vaccinations among young adults has not accelerated in the weeks since eligibility opened up: In the three weeks since vaccine appointments became nationally available to every American over the age 18, the share of 18- to 34-year-olds who received at least one dose ticked up by an average of 3 percentage points per week, right in line with the average over the previous month. Just 1 in 3 young adults have received at least one dose. View more. 

Following weeks of decline, skepticism among moms has gone back up: After dropping as low as 45 percent in mid-April, 51 percent of moms now say they are either unwilling to get vaccinated or are uncertain. That’s around 20 points higher than dads, other men and other women. View more.

Fox News viewers and Snapchat users are less willing to get vaccinated: Opposition is particularly high among Snapchat’s younger user base, 28 percent of whom don’t plan to get vaccinated. View more.

Concerns about side effects and sped-up approval process continue to drive hesitancy: Across all major demographic groups, the two most-cited issues are side effects and accelerated approval. View more.

Further reading: What incentives would sway unvaccinated adults

Topline tracking: Overall, 54 percent of Americans said they had received at least one shot, 13 percent plan to get vaccinated, 14 percent are uncertain whether they will be, and 19 percent do not plan to get one.

Demographic Trends

In order to gauge vaccination rates and interest, Morning Consult asked Americans, “Have you gotten the vaccine, or not?” Respondents could reply “Yes,” “No, but I will get it in the future,” “No, and I am not sure if I will get it in the future,” or “No, and I do not plan to get it.”

The most recent data shows that 27 percent of Republicans do not plan on getting vaccinated, the highest level of any major demographic group. Older Americans, Democrats and more well-educated adults are less likely to oppose getting vaccinated.

At a more granular level, younger age groups with low incomes are among the least likely to be willing to get vaccinated. Less than half of 18- to 34-year-olds who are earning less than $50,000 a year either have been vaccinated or plan to be.

One of the most significant pockets of vaccine skepticism is among moms, or female parents with children under the age 18 in their household. Fifty-one percent of moms are either unwilling to get vaccinated or are uncertain, notably higher than the share of dads, other women and other men. This rate has ticked up in recent weeks, after falling as low as 45 percent in April.

The share of adults who are unwilling to get vaccinated, or are uncertain:

Other men and women include all adults who don’t have children under the age of 18 living in their households.

Deeper Demographic Trends:

State-Level Tracking

State-level vaccine results are based on 144,268 survey interviews conducted between April 11 – May 10, 2021. The sample size for each state varies between 195-12,244, with an average of over 2,828 survey interviews per state.

Currently, high rates of opposition are concentrated in the South, whose states lean Republican, while the Northeastern states, which lean Democratic, generally have low rates of vaccine unwillingness.

Rates of Vaccine Opposition by State

The share of adults in each state who say they do not plan on getting vaccinated:

 

Of the 20 states with the highest rates of unwillingness to get vaccinated, Trump won 19. Of the 20 states with the lowest rates of vaccine unwillingness, Biden won 18.

Rates of Vaccine Uncertainty by State

The share of adults in each state who are uncertain whether they will get vaccinated:

Gauging Vaccine Skepticism

Since Morning Consult began tracking in mid-March, the share of total vaccine skeptics (uncertain plus unwilling) has dropped from 39 percent to 33 percent of the adult population. 

The bulk of Americans who are unwilling to get vaccinated have not wavered on that position much over the last two months. In mid-March, 21 percent of U.S. adults said they did not plan to get vaccinated. In the latest figures, 19 percent say the same.

Drilling down into what’s driving skepticism, those who are uncertain tend to be more likely to cite side effects and sped-up approval processes, while those who are unwilling are more likely to say they don’t trust the manufacturers or vaccines in general.

Among just those who are uncertain about getting vaccinated, their reasons are largely similar across a wide range of different demographic groups.


Vaccine Uptake

In the three weeks since vaccine appointments became nationally available to every American over the age 18, the share of 18- to 34-year-olds who received at least one dose ticked up by an average of 3 percentage points per week, right in line with the average over the previous month. Just 1 in 3 young adults have received at least one dose.

The share of adults who say they have received at least one dose:

Looking just at those Americans who are willing to get vaccinated (either have been or plan to get vaccinated), the data shows that more than 8 in 10 U.S. adults have already received at least one dose. However, there are notable demographic differences, particularly along age, racial and income lines.

 

Methodology

Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with over 6,000 respondents in the United States. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience in each country. Daily responses are weighted to approximate a representative sample of adults based on U.S. census data.

The weighting methodology for national data considers a range of demographic characteristics, including age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. State-level results were weighted separately to be representative of age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, home ownership and population density.

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