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Political Intelligence
Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on President Trump. Each month, we’ll update this page with the latest survey data, providing a clear picture of Trump’s approval and re-election prospects.

 

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Approval by State

Use the slider to track how Trump’s net approval has shifted over time.

Slide left and right to change months
State Trends

Select a state to view the trend data.

Since Trump took office, his net approval in  has  percentage points.
Approval Disapproval
Gauging the Prospects of a Primary Challenge

Below is a high-level look at Trump’s support among potential GOP primary voters.

85%
of GOP primary voters approve
of Trump. 13% don't.
Trend over time
77%
of GOP primary voters support Trump's nomination. 20% support another candidate.
Trend over time
Trump's Re-election Support With Key Groups

A breakdown of which demographic groups are more or less likely to support a primary challenge for Trump. Each of the below groups are sub-demographics among potential GOP primary voters:

Support Trump's Nomination
Don't Know, No Opinion
Support a Different Candidate's Nomination
18-29 years-old
65% 4% 31%
30-44 years-old
74% 3% 23%
45-54 years-old
80% 3% 17%
55-64 years-old
79% 3% 18%
65+ years-old
81% 3% 16%
Urban
75% 3% 22%
Suburban
75% 3% 22%
Rural
81% 3% 16%
Income: Under 50k
78% 4% 18%
Income: 50k-100k
77% 3% 20%
Income: 100k+
73% 2% 24%
Very conservative
91% 2% 7%
Conservative
83% 3% 15%
Slightly conservative
65% 4% 31%
Moderate
61% 4% 35%
Independent
67% 3% 30%
Republican
80% 3% 17%
No college
80% 3% 17%
Bachelors degree
73% 3% 24%
Post-grad
70% 3% 27%
Male
79% 2% 19%
Female
75% 4% 21%
Extremely interested in politics
85% 1% 14%
Very interested in politics
81% 2% 17%
Somewhat interested in politics
74% 3% 22%
Not too interested in politics
67% 6% 26%
Not at all interested in politics
63% 10% 26%
See more  demographics
Methodology

This page was last updated on April 5, 2019. 

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level. Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here

About the state-level data:

Morning Consult conducted more than 2 million surveys with registered U.S. voters from Jan. 20, 2017 to Mar 31, 2019 to determine the approval ratings for President Donald Trump in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for each month. These results use a statistical technique called multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to estimate state-level public opinion from the national survey data for a specific month.

In each poll, Americans indicated whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of Trump. For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know/no opinion. The surveys also included about 30 demographic questions.

Responses to the Trump approval question are modeled via multilevel regression as a function of both individual level and state-level variables. Our models use age, gender, education and race as individual-level predictor variables. For our state-level variables, we chose variables that may influence state-level vote choice such as the percent change in state gross domestic product (GDP), state unemployment rates, state median household income and state-level outcomes from the 2016 presidential election.

Morning Consult obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2012 Current Population Survey. We applied post-stratification weights at the state level based on gender, age, educational attainment and race using the American Community Survey (ACS).

Standard errors for our estimates for each state were calculated by taking 100 bootstrap samples with replacement from our full national dataset for each hypothetical matchup and then assessing this empirical distribution at the state level. The distribution of these predictions at the state level allows us to construct a predictive interval, which gives us a sense of the spread of MRP estimates. The 95 percent predictive intervals range from 1 percentage point in larger states such as California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas, to 4 percentage points in the smaller population size of Alaska.

The margin of error in each state for the last month is available here.

About the re-election support data:

The “Gauging the Prospects of a Primary Challenge” and “Trump’s Re-election Support With Key Groups” sections have a different methodology than the above sections. These sections are reported based on 56,144 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Republican primary or caucus in their state. The interviews were collected from March 1, 2019 through March 31, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%. Each demographic group listed in the “Trump’s Re-election Support With Key Groups” is based on at least 3,500 interviews over that same time frame. The margin of error for each group is either +/- 1% or +/- 2%.