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Category Advantage measures the drivers of brand strength by capturing both mental availability (likelihood a brand comes to mind) and emotional closeness (how strongly consumers connect with a brand) among all competitors. Schedule a private briefing on this research. .
The bottom line up front
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Prediction and betting markets are not a single category — they’re a system of entry moments spanning sports rituals, speculative upside, and news-driven engagement.
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Usage consistently outpaces recall: people use these platforms but don’t reliably think of them when trigger moments occur.
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The brands that win will be those that show up repeatedly in more of these moments — not those with the best features or the cleverest positioning.
What’s shaping the predictions and betting category today
- Three distinct ‘doors’ drive category entry: Speculative upside (“quick money”), live sports moments (checking odds, tracking outcomes), and knowledge-based engagement (news betting, alternative investing). No single door dominates — the category is fundamentally multi-entry.
- Market share exceeds mental share across the board: Across regions, income levels, and education segments, brands are being used more than they’re being remembered. This is a classic signal that growth depends on expanding mental presence, not product differentiation.
- The category is functionally anchored: Core triggers are game-time rituals, real-time event tracking, and money-making aspirations — repeatable behaviors, not novelty use cases. This is durable demand waiting to be claimed.
- FanDuel, DraftKings and Kalshi lead the pack: However mental market share remains relatively low, signaling both headspace but also the potential for competitors to close ground.
Prediction & Betting Market Gap Analysis
Who are prediction and betting market users?
- Economic sentiment: Prediction market users show higher consumer confidence than the general population, though recent data shows softening. They’re competitive, status-conscious, and information-hungry.
- Political profile: Users are more politically engaged than gen pop — they follow elections closely, consume political news alongside sports and finance, and have strong opinions about national direction. But political attentiveness matters more than party affiliation. This is a category of people who like being right, early, and informed.
- Media footprint: Heavy over-index on TikTok, Snapchat, Reddit, Spotify, and X. Maintain strong YouTube and Facebook presence. Consume sports media (ESPN) and serious news (NYT, WSJ, CNBC) simultaneously — fast, high-frequency environments built for repeated messaging.
How segments differ
The multi-entry structure holds across demographics. What changes is emphasis:
- West vs. Midwest/South: The West indexes higher on news-driven and event-based entry; Midwest and South lean into sports rituals and “quick money” framing. A single national message underperforms.
- Higher income/education: Category leans toward information markets and investment adjacency. “Alternative to stocks” and “knowledge-based returns” resonate. Credibility matters.
- Lower income/education: Volume drivers, but fragile. “Quick money” and social proof dominate. Need clarity, trust cues, and repetition to convert trial into habit.
- Political identity: Both left- and right-leaning users participate in election-related moments, but rationalize differently. Right-leaning users respond to market-as-truth and anti-establishment framings; left-leaning users prefer probability and collective-intelligence language. Independents over-index on news curiosity and “signal vs. noise” framing — and messaging that works for Independents typically travels well to partisans on both sides.
Brand over- and underperformance on category entry points
Why this matters now
- The category is still being mentally defined. Unlike mature betting categories with established brand hierarchies, prediction markets remain in a formative phase. Consumer mental maps are incomplete — which means the cost of building strong associations is lower now than it will be in 18 months. Early movers on mental availability will become default choices as the category matures.
- Usage without recall is a warning sign. The consistent pattern of market share exceeding mental share suggests brands are being used opportunistically but not remembered systematically. This creates vulnerability: users who don’t think of you unprompted are easily poached. Closing this gap is the primary growth lever available.
- Political moments are additive, not foundational. Election-related entry points expand reach, but the category’s core is money, sports, and real-time events. Brands that lean too heavily into partisan identity narrow their audience and invite rejection. The category wins when it feels agnostic, observational, and procedural — not ideological.
- Trust is a growth multiplier, not a compliance box. Because “quick money” is such a powerful category driver, clarity, transparent settlement, and responsible-use messaging aren’t just regulatory requirements — they’re conversion unlocks that protect hard-won awareness gains.
About this research
Morning Consult conducts over 30,000 daily proprietary surveys in 45 countries covering more than 5,000 brands and 50 economic indicators.
Our category advantage research is aimed at understanding the needs driving consumers in your category — and how your brand can own more of them. This research is built on validated principles of brand-driven growth and powered by Morning Consult’s industry-leading sampling technology.
Measure the true drivers of brand strength
Capture both mental availability (the likelihood your brand comes to mind when consumers face a need or occasion) and emotional closeness (how strongly consumers connect with your brand), benchmarked against competitors.
Uncover Category Entry Points (CEPs)
Directly tied to mental availability, see the specific needs, occasions, and triggers that drive purchase decisions in your category, and how strongly your brand is linked to them.
Pinpoint growth opportunities
Direct investment toward the moments and consumer segments with the greatest potential to grow your brand.
Turn insights into action fast
Get survey results in 4–5 days through a centralized dashboard and short-form memo that equips stakeholders with clear direction on where and how to win.