50-State Poll: Hillary Clinton Still Leads Where It Matters

How the Election Has Changed Since the Conventions

Hillary Clinton would top Donald Trump 321-195 in electoral votes to clinch the White House if the election were held today, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of registered voters.

But the 2016 presidential race is far from over. The leading candidate is within the margin of error in nine states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. When those states are removed from the count, the former secretary of State garners 258 electoral votes to the New York businessman’s 164.

The analysis is the third time Morning Consult has provided a complete look at the electoral college map. Voter sentiment has shifted in a number of key states since our last survey, which was released just before the political conventions. Our analysis also provides a snapshot into how Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein would affect the Electoral College count for Clinton and Trump.

The Democratic nominee sports small gains over Trump in Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Republican standard bearer leads narrowly in Arizona, New Mexico and North Carolina.

Georgia and Iowa remain pure toss-ups, with both candidates deadlocked at 40 percent.

How the Race Has Changed Since the Conventions

As the race has progressed following both parties’ political conventions in July, voter sentiment has shifted in a number of states.

Trump’s grip on Arizona is slipping. While Ohio voters leaned toward him before, Clinton has now consolidated their support. The Democratic nominee has also improved her standing in Nevada and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee has made gains in New Mexico and Georgia.

[image-comparator left=”https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/septemberslider.png” right=”https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/julyslider.png” width=”100%” classes=”hover”][/image-comparator]

What About Gary Johnson and Jill Stein?

howthirdpartyThe introduction of Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has done little to change the big picture of the race.

A four-way matchup of all the candidates currently stands to benefit Clinton, as she would pick up New Mexico and Iowa and top Donald Trump 332-206 in the Electoral College count. That would be a repeat of President Obama’s 2012 margin of victory over Mitt Romney.

But the expanded field also weakens her dominance on much of the map and whittles her lead in a number of states which could prove decisive, most notably Florida, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Check out the maps and tables below to see how all of the candidates fare in a two-way and four-way races.

Morning Consult’s analysis uses the opinions of registered voters collected in August in tandem with a a methodology known as multi-level regression and post-stratification to crunch responses from more than 18,000 registered voters with state-level demographics such as gender, income and education level. See more on our methodology here.

270 electoral votes to win

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StateHillary ClintonDonald TrumpDon't Know / No OpinionMargin of ErrorECVotes
AK29.3%50.2%20.5%5%3
AL30.9%53.1%16.0%4%9
AR33.5%48.6%18.0%5%6
AZ40.2%42.9%16.9%3%11
CA53.9%28.8%17.3%2%55
CO44.9%33.2%21.9%4%9
CT45.2%35.9%18.9%4%7
DC69.0%15.3%15.7%4%3
DE45.4%34.8%19.7%4%3
FL42.8%39.6%17.6%3%29
GA40.8%40.9%18.3%3%16
HI52.8%26.8%20.4%5%4
IA40.3%40.3%19.4%4%6
ID30.1%50.0%19.8%3%4
IL49.5%32.6%17.9%3%20
IN34.2%46.0%19.8%3%11
KS30.9%49.2%19.8%3%6
KY35.0%46.2%18.9%3%8
LA31.7%50.0%18.3%3%8
MA49.7%31.2%19.1%3%11
MD51.7%28.2%20.1%4%10
ME42.5%38.4%19.1%5%4
MI43.0%36.8%20.1%3%16
MN41.6%37.7%20.7%3%10
MO38.3%43.2%18.5%3%10
MS34.3%49.1%16.6%4%6
MT35.4%46.0%18.6%3%3
NC40.8%42.5%16.8%3%15
ND33.0%45.7%21.3%3%3
NE35.1%44.7%20.2%5%5
NH41.5%37.6%21.0%4%4
NJ44.3%35.5%20.2%3%14
NM39.8%42.6%17.6%4%5
NV42.9%39.2%17.9%3%6
NY51.6%31.8%16.6%2%29
OH42.7%37.9%19.4%3%18
OK28.5%53.8%17.7%4%7
OR47.1%35.4%17.5%5%7
PA42.4%39.7%17.9%3%20
RI50.1%32.1%17.8%4%4
SC36.6%45.9%17.5%3%9
SD31.3%48.6%20.1%4%3
TN32.5%49.6%17.9%3%11
TX37.2%43.1%19.7%2%38
UT27.5%49.7%22.7%6%6
VA44.3%37.0%18.7%3%13
VT48.9%31.5%19.6%5%3
WA44.0%36.4%19.7%4%12
WI42.1%38.1%19.8%3%10
WV28.6%53.5%18.0%4%5
WY22.0%57.4%20.6%4%3
270 electoral votes to win

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StateHillary ClintonDonald TrumpGary JohnsonJill SteinDon't Know / No OpinionMargin of ErrorECVotes
AK26.4%39.6%17.6%2.1%14.4%5%3
AL28.0%49.5%7.7%2.8%12.0%4%9
AR28.5%44.8%9.2%4.7%12.8%5%6
AZ35.3%38.0%10.0%3.8%12.8%3%11
CA48.6%26.9%6.5%4.9%13.1%2%55
CO39.2%30.9%11.1%5.4%13.4%4%9
CT42.3%30.2%9.7%3.5%14.3%4%7
DC63.6%13.4%4.9%5.3%12.8%4%3
DE41.6%31.8%8.3%4.2%14.1%4%3
FL38.4%37.5%7.3%3.7%13.2%3%29
GA36.8%38.6%8.4%3.1%13.2%3%16
HI47.2%23.9%9.1%5.5%14.3%5%4
IA36.6%35.5%8.8%4.6%14.4%4%6
ID26.2%46.7%10.6%3.5%13.0%3%4
IL45.2%29.4%8.5%3.8%13.1%3%20
IN30.9%41.4%10.9%3.4%13.4%3%11
KS26.6%42.8%14.4%2.9%13.3%3%6
KY31.2%42.5%8.5%3.8%14.0%3%8
LA29.6%43.4%9.7%3.4%13.9%3%8
MA44.1%28.0%9.8%5.0%13.0%3%11
MD47.2%26.3%7.9%3.7%14.9%4%10
ME37.8%35.3%8.2%5.1%13.6%5%4
MI38.8%32.4%8.4%5.5%14.9%3%16
MN36.4%34.4%10.0%4.1%15.0%3%10
MO32.8%38.8%10.2%4.0%14.1%3%10
MS31.8%44.2%8.0%2.8%13.2%4%6
MT30.8%42.5%9.5%4.4%12.8%3%3
NC35.8%38.5%9.1%3.7%12.9%3%15
ND28.0%42.0%12.4%4.2%13.4%3%3
NE29.2%40.8%13.1%4.5%12.5%5%5
NH35.7%34.9%10.4%4.7%14.4%4%4
NJ40.2%31.9%9.0%3.8%15.1%3%14
NM35.9%34.7%13.7%3.0%12.8%4%5
NV38.4%36.7%8.0%3.5%13.4%3%6
NY48.5%28.6%6.2%3.8%12.9%2%29
OH37.2%35.3%9.4%3.8%14.3%3%18
OK24.6%48.5%11.4%3.0%12.5%4%7
OR41.4%33.4%6.9%5.2%13.2%5%7
PA37.4%36.5%9.0%3.8%13.2%3%20
RI45.1%29.8%7.3%3.8%14.0%4%4
SC33.2%42.1%7.8%3.6%13.3%3%9
SD26.5%42.9%12.5%4.7%13.4%4%3
TN29.0%46.9%8.2%3.0%12.9%3%11
TX32.3%39.9%9.1%4.1%14.6%2%38
UT21.5%41.9%20.0%3.4%13.2%6%6
VA39.6%34.2%9.5%3.5%13.2%3%13
VT44.2%28.2%7.4%6.6%13.6%5%3
WA40.4%32.3%8.4%4.6%14.4%4%12
WI37.7%34.8%9.4%4.0%14.2%3%10
WV26.0%47.2%11.4%2.5%13.0%4%5
WY19.2%48.2%17.0%2.2%13.4%4%3

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