50 State Snapshot: Trump, Cruz Lose to Clinton, While Kasich Wins

If the presidential election was held today, businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would lose to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 44,000 poll respondents.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only candidate who could beat Clinton in November. Both Trump and Cruz would lose to Clinton by considerable margins in a head-to-head race, winning just 210 and 206 electoral college votes, respectively. By contrast, Kasich comfortably beats Clinton, racking up 304 electoral college votes to her 234.

The analysis is the first glimpse of how Clinton might perform against the remaining Republican candidates in every state. It uses the opinions of 44,000 registered voters, collected since January, plus a variety of characteristics in each state like age, gender, and President Obama’s approval rating, to determine what the results of a presidential election might look like now.  About 20 percent of voters are undecided, but the maps below capture who wins a plurality in each state, and with that, the electoral college.

Kasich easily clears the 270 votes needed for the White House by winning a bloc of Midwest states that Republicans haven’t won since President George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988. Our analysis shows Kasich winning every state that Trump and Cruz win, but he also adds victories in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Clinton performs 3 to 10 percentage points better against Trump or Cruz in those states than against Kasich.

Electoral College
270 to win

An * denotes a state is within the margin of error.

Electoral College
270 to win

An * denotes a state is within the margin of error.

Electoral College
270 to win

An * denotes a state is within the margin of error.

The results show that the race is still up for grabs, with nearly 20 percent of registered voters saying they are undecided about who they’d vote for between Clinton and either Trump, Cruz or Kasich. But the findings lend some weight to Kasich and Republicans who argue that Trump and Cruz can’t beat Clinton in a general election. They also signal that an election between Clinton and Kasich could shift some campaign focus towards the Midwest and away from traditional swing states of recent elections such as Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia — Clinton wins those states in our analysis.

How did we get these results? Our team used a methodology known as multi-level regression and poststratification to crunch responses from more than 44,000 registered voters with state-level demographics such as gender, income, and education level. See more on our methodology here.

 

DemographicHillary ClintonDonald TrumpDon't Know / No OpinionMargin of Error
AK33.20%48%18.80%5%
AL30.90%53.30%15.80%2%
AR37.50%47%15.50%3%
AZ38.80%45.60%15.60%2%
CA53%32.20%14.80%1%
CO43.50%39%17.50%2%
CT47.20%36.30%16.50%3%
DC69.80%16.60%13.60%3%
DE47.40%37.60%15%3%
FL43.30%43.10%13.60%1%
GA39%45.30%15.70%2%
HI53.50%29%17.50%4%
IA44.70%38.10%17.20%2%
ID31.80%50.60%17.60%3%
IL51.30%32.90%15.70%2%
IN40.80%42.40%16.70%3%
KS36.90%43.30%19.80%3%
KY38%45.50%16.40%3%
LA35.40%49.50%15.10%2%
MA49.20%36.70%14.10%2%
MD51.90%31.50%16.60%3%
ME40.80%42%17.20%3%
MI42.30%40.80%16.90%2%
MN44.40%38.80%16.70%2%
MO38.30%44.80%16.90%2%
MS31.90%54%14%4%
MT35.40%46.50%18.10%3%
NC38.40%46.70%14.90%2%
ND35%46.30%18.80%3%
NE35.30%48.40%16.30%3%
NH43.30%39%17.60%3%
NJ44.30%39.90%15.80%2%
NM44.80%40.10%15.10%4%
NV43.50%42.10%14.40%3%
NY52.80%33.60%13.50%1%
OH42.40%40.40%17.20%2%
OK34.10%47.90%17.90%2%
OR44.90%37.70%17.40%2%
PA43.40%41.70%14.90%2%
RI48.90%35.70%15.50%3%
SC36.20%46.70%17%2%
SD38.20%44.60%17.30%3%
TN34.20%50.20%15.60%2%
TX38.80%43.80%17.40%1%
UT30.50%46.20%23.20%3%
VA44.60%40.10%15.30%2%
VT54.50%30.60%14.90%3%
WA48.10%33.80%18.10%2%
WI43.40%37.90%18.70%3%
WV28.70%53.60%17.70%3%
WY26.60%54.80%18.70%4%
DemographicHillary ClintonTed CruzDon't Know / No OpinionMargin of Error
AK35.80%40.10%24.10%5%
AL32.20%50.50%17.30%2%
AR37.30%47.50%15.20%3%
AZ39.50%43.50%17%2%
CA51.20%32.90%15.90%1%
CO42.20%41.40%16.30%2%
CT49.40%32%18.60%3%
DC68.50%14.50%16.90%3%
DE47.70%36%16.30%3%
FL44.10%40.30%15.70%1%
GA40.90%42.80%16.20%2%
HI53.40%28.60%18.10%4%
IA43.90%39.10%17%2%
ID31.20%53.70%15.10%3%
IL50.80%32.60%16.60%2%
IN39.70%44.80%15.50%3%
KS35.10%47.90%17%3%
KY39%43.10%17.90%3%
LA36.20%45.70%18.10%2%
MA51.80%29.60%18.60%2%
MD51.60%30.90%17.40%3%
ME41.10%39.70%19.20%3%
MI42.40%39.10%18.40%2%
MN43.50%41.20%15.30%2%
MO35.60%45.30%19.10%2%
MS34.20%47.40%18.40%4%
MT34.70%48.10%17.20%3%
NC39.10%44.40%16.50%2%
ND35%47.90%17.20%3%
NE33.60%50.30%16.20%3%
NH42.80%38.90%18.20%3%
NJ47.10%34.30%18.60%2%
NM43.70%38.80%17.50%4%
NV45.40%37.70%16.90%3%
NY53.30%29.90%16.80%1%
OH41.60%41.30%17.10%2%
OK32.60%50.20%17.20%2%
OR43.40%39.60%17%2%
PA45.70%36.80%17.50%2%
RI48.40%33.10%18.50%3%
SC36.40%47.80%15.80%2%
SD34.50%47.50%18%3%
TN35.80%47.40%16.80%2%
TX36.30%48.60%15%1%
UT27.70%55.20%17%3%
VA43.10%41%15.90%2%
VT52%30.80%17.20%3%
WA46.90%36.10%17%2%
WI42.40%40.20%17.40%3%
WV32%47%21%3%
WY27.20%51.90%20.90%4%
DemographicHillary ClintonJohn KasichDon't Know / No OpinionMargin of Error
AK35.90%37.50%26.70%5%
AL31%48.50%20.50%2%
AR38.10%41.70%20.20%3%
AZ36.80%42.90%20.30%2%
CA49.20%31.50%19.40%1%
CO37.80%44.40%17.90%2%
CT43.40%36.60%20.10%3%
DC62.60%20.20%17.20%3%
DE43.50%39%17.50%3%
FL43.60%38.60%17.90%1%
GA39.70%40.60%19.70%2%
HI46%33.40%20.60%4%
IA41.30%39.90%18.70%2%
ID29.40%52.10%18.50%3%
IL46.90%34.50%18.60%2%
IN37.70%42.50%19.80%3%
KS31.60%48%20.50%3%
KY39.70%40.10%20.20%3%
LA36.50%42.80%20.70%2%
MA44%36.60%19.50%2%
MD47.80%32.80%19.50%3%
ME35.80%43.50%20.60%3%
MI39.70%41.30%19.10%2%
MN40%40.90%19.10%2%
MO35.30%43.40%21.30%2%
MS32.30%47.40%20.20%4%
MT31.10%49.10%19.70%3%
NC37.30%43.40%19.30%2%
ND31.40%48.30%20.30%3%
NE30.80%50.60%18.60%3%
NH33.20%47.80%18.90%3%
NJ42.90%36.90%20.20%2%
NM39.90%38.60%21.50%4%
NV41.80%39.40%18.90%3%
NY50.40%31.80%17.80%1%
OH34.50%49.50%15.90%2%
OK31.60%48.60%19.80%2%
OR39.90%41.50%18.70%2%
PA40.10%41.10%18.80%2%
RI42.80%35.60%21.60%3%
SC34.50%46.90%18.60%2%
SD31.60%46.60%21.80%3%
TN34%45.80%20.20%2%
TX37.30%42.90%19.80%1%
UT29.10%49.90%21%3%
VA41.10%40.70%18.30%2%
VT41.20%40.10%18.70%3%
WA44.80%34.10%21.10%2%
WI39.10%42.20%18.80%3%
WV30.80%43.70%25.60%3%
WY26.70%49.10%24.20%4%