Kalshi’s Relevance to Real-World Moments

Leaders from the world’s largest companies, equity research firms, hedge funds, and the Federal Reserve rely on Morning Consult’s 30,000 daily survey interviews in 45 countries covering more than 5,000 brands, economic indicators, and risk metrics. Category Advantage measures the drivers of brand strength by capturing mental availability and emotional closeness among competitors.

Category Advantage measures the drivers of brand strength by capturing both mental availability (likelihood a brand comes to mind) and emotional closeness (how strongly consumers connect with a brand) among all competitors. Schedule a private briefing on this research. .

The bottom line up front  

• Kalshi is the platform people think of when news, policy, or economic events are unfolding and expectations are actively shifting. The brand is strongly associated with interpreting real-world events, reacting to market-moving information, and applying knowledge to anticipate outcomes. Kalshi is not primarily a sports or entertainment betting brand — it is recalled when people want to understand how real-world uncertainty is likely to resolve.
• Kalshi’s advantage is credibility and relevance in high-information moments. The challenge is to turn that credibility into more frequent, default recall. The strategic priority is simplifying when and why Kalshi is the “right” brand to think of — making it the automatic destination whenever a real-world outcome is uncertain, even for lighter users.

Kalshi’s competitive strengths:

• Kalshi has strong, focused associations across real-world moments. The brand shows substantial CEP salience on: election coverage (57%), tracking real-time outcomes (55%), breaking news (54%), market-moving news (50%), capitalizing on developing stories (50%), knowledge-based returns (48%), alternative investing (46%), validation (46%), comparing predictions (45%), and diversification (43%). This is credible, coherent relevance across the information-market space.
• Kalshi leads on elections and real-world event tracking. At 57% on election coverage and 55% on real-time tracking, Kalshi has dominant associations in high-salience, high-attention moments. These are genuine competitive advantages in the information-market category.
• Kalshi owns the “developing story” space. With 50% on capitalizing on developing news stories and 50% on market-moving news, Kalshi is strongly associated with moments where expectations are actively shifting — not just final outcomes. This is a defensible, differentiated position.

Kalshi’s differentiated strengths compared to category leaders

Kalshi’s challenges:

• Election and political followers: Users engaged with election coverage and forecasts (57%). Kalshi’s leadership here is a core strength to defend.
• News-driven traders: Users who enter the category through real-time event tracking (55%), breaking news (54%), and market-moving information (50%). These are Kalshi’s natural constituency.
• Finance-adjacent users: Users who frame prediction markets as diversification tools (43%) or alternatives to traditional investing (46%). Kalshi’s credibility positioning resonates strongly.

Kalshi’s opportunity segments

• Developing-story followers: Users who engage with stories that evolve over days or weeks. Kalshi’s 50% on “capitalizing on a developing news story” is a foundation to build on — these moments reinforce dynamic forecasting, not just binary resolution.
• Lighter news users: Users who are news-engaged but don’t think of themselves as “traders.” Growth requires simplifying recognition of “Kalshi moments” without sacrificing seriousness.

Five strategic priorities for Kalshi based on this research

1. Defend the core role: “markets for real-world outcomes.” Kalshi’s organizing idea is clear: the platform where you trade on what will happen in the real world. This unifies news, elections, economics, policy, and regulation. It should be treated as the brand’s primary mental anchor, not one message among many.

2. Simplify recognition of “Kalshi moments.” Growth will come from helping more people quickly recognize “This situation has an outcome,” “This is something Kalshi covers,” and “This is a moment where the market can guide me.” Clear framing, repeated cues tied to news cycles, and simple probability explanations reduce friction and increase habitual recall.

3. Lean into developing stories, not just final outcomes. Kalshi’s strength in capitalizing on developing stories (50%), market-moving news (50%), and real-time tracking (55%) should be emphasized more than single binary outcomes or one-off novelty markets. This reinforces the brand’s advantage in dynamic forecasting, not just resolution.

4. Handle elections and politics with disciplined neutrality. Kalshi’s 57% election association is a genuine advantage, but it carries sensitivity. Frame these moments as non-partisan, probability-led, and expectation-focused — not advocacy. This keeps Kalshi credible and accessible across political identities.

5. Measure success through habitual recall, not just relevance. Future success should be judged by stronger top-of-mind recall in news-driven and policy-driven moments, increased habitual usage tied to recurring real-world events, clear differentiation from sportsbook brands, and growth in mental penetration beyond the highly engaged core.

About this research

Morning Consult conducts over 30,000 daily proprietary surveys in 45 countries covering more than 5,000 brands and 50 economic indicators. 

Our category advantage research is aimed at understanding the needs driving consumers in your category — and how your brand can own more of them. This research is built on validated principles of brand-driven growth and powered by Morning Consult’s industry-leading sampling technology.

Measure the true drivers of brand strength

Capture both mental availability (the likelihood your brand comes to mind when consumers face a need or occasion) and emotional closeness (how strongly consumers connect with your brand), benchmarked against competitors.

Uncover Category Entry Points (CEPs)

Directly tied to mental availability, see the specific needs, occasions, and triggers that drive purchase decisions in your category, and how strongly your brand is linked to them.

Pinpoint growth opportunities

Direct investment toward the moments and consumer segments with the greatest potential to grow your brand.

Turn insights into action fast

Get survey results in 4–5 days through a centralized dashboard and short-form memo that equips stakeholders with clear direction on where and how to win.

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