2026 Midterms Report: The Final Month
Democrats are building momentum as Trump's approval rating hits the lowest mark of his second term. AI, data centers and broader tech regulation are rising as priorities.
Plus: What comes next for congress?
Key Takeaways
1. President Trump's approval rating has hit the worst mark of his second term, and the slide is coming from Republicans. Voters are 16 points more likely to disapprove than approve of his job performance (41% to 57%), down 3 points over four weeks and a record low. Republicans account for the move, as his overall approval rating and the strength of his backing have reached term lows.
2. Democrats hold a 7-point generic ballot lead among likely voters as the issue map — both regarding Trump’s job performance and congressional trust — continues to tilt their way. Trump's approval ratings on health care, taxes and energy have all reached term lows as ballots are already being cast, and Democrats in Congress have more trust than Republicans to handle 11 of the 13 issues we track.
3. At the state level, Trump is above water in 12 states, down from 31 at the start of his term. Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Alaska have all flipped from positive to negative as the GOP’s electorate has weakened in its support for the president.
4. AI and data centers top voters' priority list, outpacing issues including health insurance assistance, tariffs, and the Iran War.