Spot a Spending Pullback

The task

Spending pullbacks don’t arrive all at once. They start with the households with the least slack and move up the income distribution. By the time you start to see a spending pullback in your quarterly reports, you’ve already fallen behind the consumer behavior. Our AI Connector can help you pull economic data that helps you understand how the broader economy is impacting your business. Morning Consult asks tens of thousands of people a month how often they do discretionary things (eat out, travel, shop for apparel), so many common behaviors can be trended by income band.

Prompt

Using Morning Consult data, show me in a chart the share of adults who eat out at restaurants at least once a week, by household income, monthly since January 2025. Is anyone pulling back?

The result

In August and September 2026, the two lower income bands dropped to their lowest readings in the series: under-$50,000 households fell from 42% to 40% and middle-income households from 59% to 55%, while the affluent band held at 67%. That’s the sign of a pullback starting from the bottom. Consumers who come from households earning $100,000 or more a year also started to drift down to lows not seen since earlier in 2026.

Keep in mind

Say how you want the income groups cut. The tracker records income in fine bands, and nine lines on one chart is unreadable. Asking for three groups (under $50k, $50k to $100k, $100k and up) gets you a readable chart that captures much of America. If you don’t say, the tool will pick for you.

Name the frequency, not just the behavior. “Dining out” is a frequency question with six answer levels: several times a day, about once a day, a few times a week, about once a week, about once a month or less often, and never. “At least weekly” collapses the top four into one number per income group per month.

Ask for the trend. Trends are almost always more telling than a single reading or a moment in time. A line that goes back months or years shows you how the audience is shifting over time and can help you shape your takeaway.