Starbucks Is the Leader in the Coffee & Breakfast Restaurants Category

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The bottom line up front  

Starbucks converts better than its mental footprint would predict, and that is both its strength and its ceiling. Its 15.3 mental market share trails its 17.4 market share, a gap of -2.1, so operating presence and habit are carrying more weight than mental availability. The brand owns the morning coffee, meeting for coffee, the morning energy boost, but it is a leader on 9 occasions and is absent from 10. The move is widening mental availability where Starbucks already has permission, protecting share that a more mentally available rival could otherwise contest.

Where Starbucks Stands

Starbucks is a category leader on mental market share. Starbucks holds 15.3 mental market share, behind McDonald's (17.8) and ahead of Dunkin' (11.0). Its market share is 17.4, producing a gap of -2.1. A negative gap means market share is running ahead of mental availability.

The brand posts one of the strongest emotional connection scores in the category. Starbucks reaches 78.0 percent of category buyers on at least one occasion, carries a Network Size of 10.2, and scores 4.24 on emotional connection on a 1 to 7 scale. 

Starbucks sits in a defined competitive band. Immediately above on mental market share is McDonald's at 17.8, and just below is Dunkin' at 11.0. Starbucks's 15.3 places it in the leading tier, where the realistic competitive set is the handful of brands nearest it, McDonald's and Dunkin' chief among them.

The CEPs Starbucks Owns

Note: These scores in this table are based on the full set of brands we ran our study on, not just the brands listed in the headers at the top. To see the full table, get in touch.

Starbucks leads on 7 occasions. On absolute association, Starbucks is the brand consumers name most for the morning coffee (Mental Advantage +19.9, 48.4 percent association); meeting for coffee (Mental Advantage +14.7, 46.6 percent association); the morning energy boost (Mental Advantage +14.3, 44.0 percent association); working or studying out (Mental Advantage +14.2, 40.7 percent association). These are the occasions where the brand both over-indexes and holds the top raw share.

Starbucks over-indexes without leading on 2 occasions. The brand punches above its expected rate on loyalty rewards (Mental Advantage +8.5, 36.4 percent versus McDonald's 40.7); the morning break (Mental Advantage +7.7, 37.6 percent versus McDonald's 37.8). It outperforms its size here yet does not hold the top absolute share, so these are leans to convert into leadership.

The owned set has a clear shape. Starbucks's 9 owned occasions cluster around the morning coffee and meeting for coffee, while it is absent from 10, deepest on family breakfast (Mental Advantage -21.4). The pattern marks Starbucks as a broad player whose equity concentrates in several related occasions.

Mental availability is running behind market share. Starbucks's negative gap of -2.1 means the brand monetizes its mental footprint harder than its share implies is safe. Share built ahead of mental availability is share a more mentally available rival can contest occasion by occasion.

Starbucks is absent from 10 occasions. The brand under-indexes deepest on family breakfast (Mental Advantage -21.4) and weekend brunch (-16.0). These absences bound where Starbucks can credibly compete.

Leadership is contested on the brand's best leans. On loyalty rewards, Starbucks over-indexes (Mental Advantage +8.5) but trails McDonald's on raw association (36.4 versus 40.7 percent). The occasion is winnable, and it is currently open.

What to Do About It

Concentrate on the occasions Starbucks already has permission to own, and protect share that outruns the brand's mental base. 

Widen mental availability on the morning coffee. Starbucks leads the morning coffee (48.4 percent, Mental Advantage +19.9). Building the mental base here protects a lead that the brand's own market share is currently outrunning.

Protect share before a rival builds mental availability. Because Starbucks's market share (17.4) runs ahead of its mental share (15.3), the defensive priority is mental availability on the owned occasions, before a more mentally available competitor contests them.

Leave the deep absences alone. family breakfast (Mental Advantage -21.4) and the other deep absences reflect the boundaries of Starbucks's proposition. Spending there fights the brand's own equity.

About this research

Morning Consult conducts over 30,000 daily proprietary surveys in 45 countries covering more than 5,000 brands and 50 economic indicators. 

Our category advantage research is aimed at understanding the needs driving consumers in your category — and how your brand can own more of them. This research is built on validated principles of brand-driven growth and powered by Morning Consult’s industry-leading sampling technology.

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Capture both mental availability (the likelihood your brand comes to mind when consumers face a need or occasion) and emotional closeness (how strongly consumers connect with your brand), benchmarked against competitors.

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Directly tied to mental availability, see the specific needs, occasions, and triggers that drive purchase decisions in your category, and how strongly your brand is linked to them.

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