February 2026 Macro Update: Cracks Are Forming at the Top of the Income Ladder
The K-shaped economy has peaked. High-income consumer sentiment fell 17.8 points, the steepest drop since COVID, as a weakening labor market and persistent policy uncertainty begin eroding the cohort that drove 2025 spending growth.
Authors
John Leer
Chief Economist
Kayla Bruun
Head of Economic Analysis
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High-income sentiment collapse is second only to the COVID crash
Over the past eight years, the 17.8-point fall in high-income ICS is the largest on record outside of COVID-19. Unlike past episodes, the stock market remains near all-time highs, suggesting this downturn is being driven by labor market concerns, not financial market volatility.
The engine of 2025 spending growth is pulling back
High-income adults drove 15.1% spending growth since December 2024, far outpacing middle- and lower-income cohorts. But that momentum is reversing: price sensitivity among $100K+ consumers spiked in January 2026, and purchasing intentions have declined across every major category, from autos (-19.1 pts) to appliances (-15.6 pts) to QSR (-13.5 pts).